Homeland Security Watch

California firefighters got a big assist from low winds and ocean mist on Saturday and Sunday. Monday night was another calm one.  The Jesusita fire is at least 80 percent contained with no visible flames.  Low humidity and the prospect of evening winds means the threat continues.

Early reports indicate that the fire may have been ignited by “a power tool being used to clear brush,” according to FOX NEWS.  “The fire has cost $9 million to fight, injured 28 firefighters, destroyed 77 homes, damaged 22 others and forced the evacuation of approximately 30,000 people to safer ground. By early Monday, only about 370 people remained out of 145 homes. Over the weekend, fire officials had praised residents for aggressively cutting back brush. ‘More homes would have burned had they not done their defensible space work,’ Santa Barbara County Fire Chief Tom Franklin said.”

The Los Angeles Times is reporting that, “Joe Waterman, an incident commander with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Prevention, did not say what type of tool was used but added: ‘It’s looking like this was not an act of nature.’ He said investigators have placed the fire’s origin near the Jesusita Trail, which leads into the Santa Ynez Mountains.”

This is why man-made disasters are helpfully categorized as either accidential or intentional.

On Monday in Australia  the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission began public hearings.  The first day focused on coordination of information within the incident command center and whether or not information was shared in a timely and sufficient way with the public.  After Tuesday’s hearings several media reports echo this ABC report, “The Royal Commission into Victoria’s bushfires has heard more evidence that the warnings given to some communities were inadequate or even nonexistent.”

The early February wildfire (bushfire in Aussie) in Southern Australia killed 179.  The hearings are webcast in real-time.

Today, Tuesday, May 12 at 10:00 (eastern) the Senate Armed Services Committee will meet to consider the nomination of Paul Stockton to be Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense and Americas’ Security Affairs.

An archived copy of the hearing’s webcast is available at:

http://armed-services.senate.gov/Webcasts/2009/May/05-12-09Webcast.htm

Several readers have previously critiqued the lack of substantive questioning of those being nominated.  The questions asked of these four nominees by the Armed Services Committee struck me as usually matching the serious issues the positions would engage.

Following are a few Homeland Security events for the coming week.  For more information  access the embedded links.  Please use the comment function to identify other events you would like to bring to readers’ attention.  If you are attending or monitoring any of these events, please use the comment function to report out to the rest of us.

Monday, May 11

12:00 noon (eastern) Cato Capitol Hill Briefing: How overreaction and misdirection play into the strategy of terrorism.

Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference, Ft. Lauderdale, continues through Friday

IEEE Conference on Technologies for Homeland Security, Waltham, Massachusets, continues on Tuesday

Tuesday, May 12

1:00 pm (eastern)  House Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee on Homeland Security will hold a hearing on the President’s  FY2010 Budget request.

4:00 pm (eastern) Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee will hold a hearing on the President’s  FY2010 Budget request.

Contingency Planning and Management Conference, Las Vegas, continues through Thursday.

Wednesday, May 13

10:00 am (eastern) House Homeland Security Committee will hold a hearing on the President’s  FY2010 Budget request.

2:00 pm (eastern)  Senate Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee on Homeland Security will hold a hearing on the President’s  FY2010 Budget request.

Border Security Expo, Phoenix, continues on Thursday.

Thursday, May 14

1:00 pm (eastern) Heritage Foundation discussion on Homeland Security and the States.

Friday, May 15

The sixty day cybersecurity review is past due.  Melissa Hathaway made her deadline.  But the document has been vetted, parsed, and edited… you know the drill. Someone, who claims to know, tells me the draft was finalized Saturday. (UPDATE: Not according to the Washington Post.)

The Obama campaign weaponized listening. Asking thoughtful questions, feeding back what was heard, and then shaping, amplifying, and organizing around what was being said, moved a very unlikely first term Senator into the White House.

This is the kind of campaign that private sector cybersecurity will need (and if Armbinder is right, maybe federal sector cybersecurity as well).

The Iowa caucus equivalent for a cybersecruity campaign could be a proposal being pushed by  Business Executives for National Security. For several months BENS and others have been circulating a proposal for a new sort of  public-private “co-laboratory” (my word, not theirs).  Several leading private sector organizations – each heavily dependent on cyber capabilities –  are ready to join-up.  

The Jesusita Trail above Santa Barbara, before the fire.  Photograph by Steven Pinker.

At last the trail climbed above the mist level and, looking back, Joseph and Thomas saw the tumbling sea of fog extending to the horizon, covering from sight the sea and the mountain slopes. And in a little they reached the pass and looked over their own dry dead valley, burning under the vicious sun, smoking with heat waves…  Joseph’s heart was filled with sorrow and with defeat. “Something has failed,” he thought. “I was appointed to care for the land, and I have failed.” He was disappointed in himself and in the land… Joseph looked up at the dry, white hills and squinted his eyes against their reflection of the glaring sun.  His eyes followed the water scars up the hill to the dry springs and over the unfleshed mountains… Once, from the foothills, he looked back on the dry houses, huddled together under the sun… “It will win,” Joseph said aloud.  “The drought will get in at us.” He was frightened.

Excerpts from TO A GOD UNKNOWN by John Steinbeck

According to a late Saturday night report from the Associated Press, “Thousands of residents were back home Saturday as a blanket of cool, moist air flowing in from the Pacific Ocean tamed a wind-driven wildfire that burned dozens of homes along the outskirts of town during the week…”

“Notorious local winds known as ‘sundowners’ sweeping from inland and down the face of the mountains drove the fire into outlying neighborhoods Wednesday afternoon, causing most of the destruction, and again late Thursday and early Friday.”

“A predicted sundowner failed to materialize Friday night, and instead the normal flow of air from the Pacific Ocean pushed ashore a dense, moist marine layer that didn’t let the sun peek through until nearly midday. Officials had said an onshore flow would raise humidity levels and blow the fire away from developed areas on the foothills.”

The Jesusita Fire has expanded to over 8000 acres.  Eighty homes have been destroyed.  3500 homes are in “immediate jeopardy” according to Reuters.  The San Francisco Chronicle headlines, Jesusita fire likely a sign of things to come.  The best blog on the fire, that I have found, is: http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/

Severe storms in Missouri and Kentucky killed five.  A tough Saturday is forecast for Arkansas, Tennessee, and much of the Southeast.

Forty-three States now report confirmed cases of H1N1. According to the CDC 1639 US residents have confirmed infections.  Japan and Australia have reported their first cases. According to WHO, 25 nations have confirmed 2500 cases. 

Intense fighting between Pakistani and Taliban forces has prompted a massive civilian exodus. According to the Daily Times (Pakistan), “On Friday, troops targeted Taliban mountaintop training camps, ammunition dumps and command and communication centres in precision strikes.” (More from Reuters, Associated Press, and Al Jezeera.)

On Friday the House Republican Conference released a video entitled, Never Again,  criticizing the Obama administration’s counterterrorism policies.  Richard Clarke, former White House (and Obama campaign)  counterterrorism advisor is pushing back.

The White House and Senator Vitter continue to exchange jabs over the Lousiana Senator’s “hold” on the nomination of Craig Fugate as FEMA Administrator.  Meanwhile the nomination of Tim Manning as Deputy Administrator (Preparedness) cleared the Senate.

On Friday Secretary Napolitano sent out this internal Email.

Dear Colleagues:

Our recent experience with the outbreak of the 2009 H1N1 flu reminds us that as DHS employees we have a critical role to play during public health emergencies — in this case the threat of a worldwide pandemic.

Your actions over the past two weeks were nothing short of exemplary. You helped instill confidence in the federal government’s response, provided reassurance and clear direction to the American people during a time of national concern, and demonstrated the importance of working as a unified team. Your efforts are greatly appreciated by me personally, by our many partners across government and the private sector, and Americans across the country.

On Wednesday, I announced a number of steps we will be taking to ensure that individuals, families, governments, private sector entities, and our own workforce across the Department are well prepared to meet the challenges that the H1N1 virus could pose in the future.

First and foremost, DHS and its partners in the federal response will work with the public health community and international partners to closely monitor the H1N1 flu virus to determine if it is becoming more severe than this initial outbreak. The Southern Hemisphere is entering its flu season now, and we will also monitor the virus there.

Second, DHS will consult with the Department of Health and Human Services as it works to determine the need for mass production of a vaccine, possible methods of distribution, and changing guidance designed to best slow the spread of the H1N1 virus in the U.S. The CDC has already taken the first step by isolating the H1N1 strain. Once a reference strain has been developed, CDC will share it with pharmaceutical companies who will produce an initial vaccine to test.

Third, the work of the DHS-led interagency task force will continue as the Department coordinates across the entire federal government to ensure we are doing everything we can to prepare ourselves should this virus present signs of having significant potential to disrupt the continuity of government operations, both now and in the upcoming flu season.

Fourth, our work with state, local, tribal, and territorial homeland security advisors, health officials and emergency managers will continue. DHS has conducted outreach to literally thousands of individuals on the front lines of this outbreak over the past two weeks, and will continue to do so in order to share information and solicit feedback from those on the ground.

Similarly, our dialogue with the private sector will continue to share information, address concerns, encourage communication with employees, and ensure that they have plans in place should a pandemic threaten their workforce.

Finally, we will continue to remind Americans of the important role they play in preventing the spread of influenza viruses, not only for their own health, but also for the health of the community-at-large.

Again, I want to thank you for your work in support of the response to this virus and all that you do every day to keep our nation safe.

Yours very truly,

Janet Napolitano

Secretary

Associated Press photo by Eric Parsons. US Forest Service firefighter Mike Espinoza surrounded by flying embers along Northridge Road in Santa Barbara

The Jesusita fire has reached the city limits of Santa Barbara. Over 20,000 have been evacuated, more evacuations are likely. Wind gusts are exceeding 50 miles per hour. The temperature is 100 degrees. The fire now encompasses over 3500 acres and is estimated to be only 10 percent contained. (Accurate as of 1:25 pm eastern)

4:30 pm eastern Bloomberg updates: Now over 30,000 evacuations.  Good overview and outlook for the season.

ABC NEWS is headlining: All Hell Broke Loose: Santa Barbara Fire Humbles Firefighters.  Video included.

The Associated Press and San Francisco Chronicle filed a new story at 1:00 pm eastern.

See the Los Angeles Time’s  Jesusita Fire Map.

CAL FIRE is providing periodic updates.  They also provide a very detailed fire perimeter map (but it has not been updated for 24 hours).

In the half-hour I have been researching and posting (it is now 1:56 pm eastern) CNN has headlined, “California wildfire expected to gain strength.”

KTMS is the Santa Barbara news radio station.  You can listen to the local webcast.

It is also worth visiting the Santa Barbara County Fire Department site, not for current information but to see the effort they have made since February (and well before) to prepare residents for the wildfire season.

Budgets, policies, strategies, and such are only meaningful to the extent they are effective in prevention most of all, mitigation because prevention is not always possible, response when prevention fails, and recovery of some sort after the response.

In this afternoon’s New York Times report on the Jesusita fire, Governor Schwarzenegger is quoted as saying, “Seventy-five percent of the response cost” would be covered by the federal government. “This is very, very helpful for us,” he said, “because, as you know, we have a financial crisis in California. But I want to reassure you all that even though we have this crisis, we will not be short of money when it comes to fighting this fire.”

This is certainly not the time to refuse help, financial or otherwise. But it is long past time to ask a set of serious policy questions about whether federal funding has long subsidized unsustainable risk-taking by individuals, communities, and States.

Funding for homeland security continued its increase in the President’s budget, request though at a slower pace than previous years. The budget for the Department of Homeland Security saw a $2.6 billion increase to $55.1 billon, almost half of the $5.2 billion increase it saw in the FY2008 and FY2009 enacted budgets.  That number, however, could increase once Congress takes up its homeland security spending bills.

The most striking difference between this and past budgets?  The Administration is not proposing to eliminate or significantly cut back on state and local grant programs.   Over the past several years, the Bush Administration and Congress participated in a ping-pong game with the ball being the money for first responders, preventers, and state and local governments.

At a time where state and local governments are facing severe economic woes, President Obama wisely decided not to cut back on these critical programs such as the State and Homeland Security Grant Program and the Urban Area Security Initiative Grant Program.  On first glance, it would seem that firefighter grants took a hit, with funding for Fire Act grants being cut by more than 60% to $170 million.  Looking more closely at the numbers reveals that SAFER grants, which support the additional costs for salaries and benefits to hire additional firefighters on the ground across the Nation, doubled to $420 million.  This was a program that the previously Administration had zeroed out in its last budget request to Congress.

Border security is front and center for former Arizona Governor and Secretary Janet Napolitano’s DHS. Concerns that an Obama Administration would weaken border security and immigration enforcement efforts have proven to be unfounded, as Obama has asked Congress for $27 billion to beef up border efforts.   Here’s a handy guide on border funding:

What’s Out:

• Fences and barrier ($779 million requested, which is much less than the $926 million allocated during FY 2009).

• State Alien Criminal Assistance Program.  The budget request zeros out the $400 million budget for the program, which reimburses states and counties for holding illegal immigrants with felony convictions.  President Bush regularly zeroed out the program in his budget and Congress routinely reinstated.  Senator Feinstein said the decision to cut the program “deprives communities of critical funding for public safety services.” Obama ends well-liked program for border security. Expect Congress to reinstate, if not increase, funding for this popular program.

What’s In:

• $70 million for 350 special agents to increase coordination with Mexico.

• $ 2 billion for the Justice Department’s Southwest Border Initiative.

• $46.8 billion for more Border Patrol agents and CBP officers to shore up efforts to combat gun and drug money flow.

• $200 million for increased funding to the Secure Communities program.

• $112 million to strengthen employment eligibility verification systems.

• $144.9 million to support implementation of WHTI.

The Department’s shifting position on Real ID may be found in the numbers.  Requested funding for the driver’s license hub was cut in half to $25 million.  At the same time, $50 million was provided for the Driver’s License Security Grants Program.  The National Governor’s Association had requested $1 billion for the program.   Expect Congress to look closely at these numbers and a renewed interest in legislation – pro and con REAL ID.

The budget also contains funding to consolidate the Department’s numerous components and agencies into a new headquarters facility and to improve the agency’s IT infrastructure. Grumbling on the Hill over the increased funding for “administrative”  functions at the cost of increased funding for substantive areas were starting to develop yesterday.   Worth watching whether DHS’ efforts to get its house in order will prevail over these criticisms.

The budget also increases the Department’s counterterrorism efforts across a range of areas – from additional TSA resources and programs to $400 million for increased critical infrastructure and cybersecurity efforts, to $94.5 million for biological warfare prevention.  It is not clear whether the increased cybersecurity funding takes into account the President’s 60-day review of cybersecurity efforts  in the federal government. The review’s report and recommendations on where cyber should sit in the federal government are expected any day.

A discussion of the budget would not be complete without noting which programs didn’t make it this year.  The homeland security termination list is a lot shorter than past years—should make Congress’ job a lot easier, especially since homeland security appropriations bills do not technically contain earmarks.  Among the programs the Administration proposes to eliminate:

• The Emergency Operations Center (EOC) Grant Program – the Administration says the program does not allocate based on risk assessment.

• Inter-City Bus Security Grant Program – ditto. No risk assessment award, no funding.

• Trucking Security Program – make that three programs cut because of failing to take a risk-based approach to handing out money.

• Loran-C:  This terrestrial-based, long-range radionavigation system was deemed to be based on obsolete technology.

• Energy Use, Office, Supplies and Equipments: In furtherance of the Secretary’s efforts to tighten the Department’s overall spending, the budget proposes saving millions of dollars through renewable energy efforts and coordinated/centralized spending on supplies and equipment.

• Logos  and Seals:  The various components and agencies at DHS will not be allowed to pay outside companies to develop snazzy seals and logos for their agencies.  The Administration determined that since DHS’ creation, more than $3 million has been spent on these efforts.

• EPA’s Homeland Security Grants – redundancy with other programs and less demand by the States killed this program.

The risk-based focus on homeland security funding, as well as yesterday’s budget request, are promising signs for the future of homeland security efforts. As Secretary Napolitano continues her efficiency review of the Department and drills down into its programs, we can expect this higher standard to permeate throughout the agency’s efforts.

I am very pleased to welcome Jessica R. Herrera-Flanigan as a new
contributor to Homeland Security Watch.  Her expert analysis of the proposed Homeland Security budget will show up here later today.

From 2005 to 2008 Jess was the Staff Director and General Counsel for the House Committee on Homeland Security. In this role she supervised the Committee’s staff and was the principal staff liaison for the Committee with the congressional leadership and the Administration on homeland security and counterterrorism matters. She was one of the Committee’s original staffers, having joined as Counsel in 2003.

Jess also served as Senior Counsel at the Computer Crime & Intellectual Property Section, Criminal Division, of the U.S. Department of Justice, where she led a team of prosecutors who specialized in cybercrime from 1999 to 2003. She was one of the government’s leading experts on critical infrastructure protection, CFIUS, and electronic evidence gathering.

Chris Bellavita and I are both beyond-the-beltway, as if you had not
noticed.  Jess will give us real insider expertise.  A graduate of Yale
University and the Harvard Law School, Jess currently serves as a partner with the Monument Policy Group and is a Senior Fellow at George Washington University’s Homeland Security Policy Institute.

Yesterday’s release of the DHS Budget-in-Brief (BIB) gives the best sense yet of how an Obama-Napolitano department will compare to the Bush-Chertoff department.

In terms of specific dollars, the shifts are incremental.  Rather than repudiating the past, there is significant continuity.

There are differences.  Some of the differences will result in meaningful operational change.  But to focus on real risks and effectively address unresolved issues of the Department’s creation, the differences are more a matter of emphasis than fundamental policy and strategy.

The BIB opens with a recitation of vision and mission:

Our Vision

A secure America, a confident public, and a strong and resilient society and economy.

Our Mission

We will lead the unified national effort to secure America. We will prevent and deter terrorist attacks and protect against and respond to threats and hazards to the Nation. We will secure our national borders while welcoming lawful immigrants, visitors, and trade.

These are direct quotes from the 2008 Department of Homeland Security Strategic Plan: One Team, One Mission, Securing our Homeland (large pdf).

The Secretary is seeking to execute the vision and mission through five priorities.  First set out in a speech two weeks ago, the five priorities are repeated — and fleshed out — in the BIB and in DHS public statements designed to shape understanding of the BIB.  The following five paragraphs are taken directly from the BIB:

Guarding Against Terrorism—Protecting the American people from terrorist attacks is the founding purpose of DHS and the Department’s highest priority. The proposed DHS budget expands efforts to battle terrorism, including funding for an additional 109 Bomb Appraisal Officers to help secure the nation’s airports and 15 additional Visible Intermodal Prevention and Response (VIPR) teams to detect explosives in public spaces and transportation networks; $400 million to protect critical infrastructure and cyber networks from attack; $94.5 million to detect agents of biological warfare; and resources to expand information-sharing partnerships with state and local law enforcement to mitigate threats.

Securing Our Borders—DHS is on the frontlines of preventing the smuggling of people, drugs, cash and weapons across our nation’s borders while facilitating international trade and travel. In March, the Department announced a new initiative to strengthen security on the Southwest border in order to disrupt the drug, cash and weapon smuggling that fuels cartel violence in Mexico. The budget request strengthens those efforts by adding technology, assets and manpower, including an additional five U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) cutters and two patrol planes, 44 Border Patrol agents, 65 U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers, 349 U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, analysts and investigators, 68 pilots, and 20 marine personnel. It also includes $40 million for smart security on the Northern border to expand and integrate surveillance systems.

Smart and Tough Enforcement of Immigration Laws—DHS welcomes new legal immigrants, protects against dangerous people entering the country, and pursues tough, effective enforcement against those who violate the nation’s immigration laws. The FY 2010 proposed budget contains $112 million to strengthen employment eligibility verification systems; designates $139 million to expedite the application process for new legal immigrants; allows for 80 new ICE Secure Communities personnel to target and crack down on criminal aliens; and $144.9 million to support the implementation of the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative, which will both improve border security and facilitate trade and tourism.

Preparing for, Responding to, and Recovering from Disasters—The Department aids state and local first responders in all stages of a disaster from preparation and response to long term recovery. DHS’ budget request provides nearly $4 billion for state and local grant programs, emergency management performance grants and firefighter assistance grants and $150 million for pre-disaster hazard mitigation efforts designed to reduce injuries, loss of life and destruction of property.

Unifying and Maturing DHS—DHS is a young department with offices dispersed throughout the country and the National Capital Region. To operate as one agency with a single, unified security mission, the proposed budget contains critical funding to consolidate more than 35 Department offices to new headquarters facilities and $200 million for new information technology infrastructure to standardize acquisitions and streamline maintenance and support contracts across the Department.

For now, these are the Secretary’s Five Articles to which she promises fealty – and seeks our cooperation.

Last week a senior staffer with the Congressional Budget Office told me of the Defense Department, “I don’t pay much attention to what the Department says is their strategy, I look at how and where they spend money.”  In part he was making  a CBO swipe at the GAO’s preoccupation with strategic planning.  But he was also stating an obvious truth.

The BIB is the administration’s opening bid in negotiations with Congress.  We will soon see what the College of Cardinals (especially Chairmen Price and Byrd, and the “young prince” Mr. Inouye) do with Ms. Napolitano’s earnest request.

UPDATE: The DHS “Budget-in-Brief” is available from the DHS website (large pdf).

SECOND UPDATE: Congress Daily writes, “Homeland security would get boost under Obama budget.”

THIRD UPDATE: Washington Post writes, “The Department of Homeland Security’s $43 billion budget would increase spending on border and transportation security but slashes funding for a domestic network of sensors to detect a nuclear bomb or radioactive materials.”  The Trucker tells, “The Department of Homeland Security’s Trucking Security Program would be eliminated under President Barack Obama’s FY 2010 budget proposal made public today. The Obama budget proposes to cut the TSP “as it does not allocate awards based on risk assessment.”

FOURTH UPDATE: DHS program cuts and “pauses” noted in 6:00 pm story from the Washingon Post.  While the Wall Street Journal identifies contractors who may benefit from proposed TSA budget increase.

——————————————-

Original post at 11:54 am (eastern):

A detailed administration proposal for the DHS budget should be available later today.  A preview copy provided to Homeland Security Watch includes the following elements cherry-picked from the budget document.

The total FY 2010 budget request for the Department of Homeland Security is $55.1 billion in funding; a 4.9 percent increase over the FY 2009 enacted level excluding supplemental funding. The Department’s FY 2010 gross discretionary budget request is $45.7 billion, an increase of 5.9 percent over the FY 2009 enacted level excluding emergency funding. The Department’s FY 2010 net discretionary budget request is $42.7 billion.

State and Local Fusion Centers: Full support and staffing are requested for the 70 identified State and Local Fusion Centers, facilities where information and intelligence is shared between federal, state, local and tribal authorities. Funding is dedicated to IT maintenance, support, and training.

Cybersecurity for the Federal Government: A $75.1 million increase is requested to enable DHS to develop and deploy cybersecurity technologies to counter on-going, real world national cyber threats and apply effective analysis and risk mitigation strategies to detect and deter threats.

Cybersecurity Research: Total funding of $37.2 million, an increase of $6.6 million, is requested to support Science and Technology in addressing critical capability gaps identified in the Comprehensive National Cybersecurity Initiative (CNCI). Specifically, this effort will develop technologies to secure the nation’s critical information infrastructure and networks.

Vetting Infrastructure Modernization: An increase of $64 million is requested to modernize vetting infrastructure data management, adjudication workflow, and integration of all vetting systems in the third and final phase of the Vetting Infrastructure Improvement Plan. Modernization will enable a universal fee mechanism that will reduce duplicative background checks and fees for transportation workers, and provide the capability to process new populations using existing enrollment and vetting infrastructure, while continuing to ensure privacy and security.

Pre-Disaster Mitigation (PDM): A $60 million increase is requested for Pre-Disaster Mitigation in the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Funding will assist in the implementation of pre-disaster hazard mitigation measures that are cost-effective and are designed to reduce injuries, loss of life, and damage and destruction of property, including damage to critical services and facilities.

Adequate Fire and Emergency Response Staffing for Adequate Fire and Emergency Response (SAFER) Grants: Total funding of $420 million is requested to double the funds devoted to SAFER grants administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which help fire departments increase the number of frontline firefighters. Funding will enable fire departments to increase their staffing and deployment capabilities, ensuring around the clock protection.

There is much more — and much more worth analysis — but this is the best I can do until very late this afternoon or tonight. As readers see more in the media (there’s a 1:00 pm eastern DHS media briefing), please use the comment function to keep us all informed.

According to the CDC there are now 896 laboratory confirmed cases of the H1N1 virus in the United States.  There have been two fatalities, both in Texas. 

The contagion continues to spread across the planet.  But to date there has been no community-wide outbreak outside North America.  The World Health Organization  anticipates this will yet occur. “If the situation continues to evolve and the virus does become established in other countries, and we do move into a pandemic, we would expect the virus to infect many people,” said WHO senior official Keiji Fukuda at a press conference today. “Perhaps a third of the world’s population could be infected with this virus, based on previous pandemic.”  (See more from ABC News)

In most cases the virus is presenting mild symptoms similar to seasonal flu.  But the WHO is concerned regarding the potential impact of any pandemic on densely populated urban areas in Africa and Asia.

“Zeng Guang, chief epidemiologist of China’s Center for Disease Control, said China has to be prepared for the ‘worst scenario’  as it faces direr challenges of a possible flu epidemic, given its high population density, an enormous migrating population and uneven disease control capacities in different regions.  ’The results could be more disastrous in China than in other parts of the world. That’s why China is on the alert against the A/H1N1 flu,” he told Xinhua on Wednesday.

The WHO’s concerns are reinforced by the pandemic readiness and response demonstrated by China and Japan, two of the most capable Asian nations. Peter J. Brown, a frequent contributor to HLSwatch, comments in today’s Asia Times Online, “When swine flu (H1N1) came knocking on Asia’s door, China’s and Japan’s crisis management skills were duly tested. The way in which the two nations communicate in emergency situations in particular deserves a closer look – neither gets a passing grade.”

The Jesusita fire north of Santa Barbara, California has destroyed twenty homes and prompted the evacuation of at least 13,000.  This sentence will be re-written dozens of times in the weeks ahead with different details, but wildfire will be the consistent cause.

Arson is suspected in the current blaze.  The BBC quotes a county fire official, “We are in a state of emergency.  We’re running very, very thin.”  We should expect to hear variations of the quote as well.

The Los Angeles Daily News aptly headlines, “Santa Barbara fire signals horrific season ahead.”  Beginning in April this blog has given regular attention to the broader scientific and policy implications of wildfire.  Following are three relevant links:

http://www.hlswatch.com/2009/04/08/wildfire-hotspots-predicted-to-shift/

http://www.hlswatch.com/2009/04/21/dry-now-fires-now-more-of-each-soon/

http://www.hlswatch.com/2009/04/24/south-carolina-fire-is-four-miles-wide/

The photograph was provided by AFP via the BBC, more photographs are available through the BBC link above.

President Obama has nominated Dr. Tara O’Toole as DHS Under Secretary for Science and Technology.  The nominee is the founder and current director of the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center.  Her official biography follows:

Prior to leading the Center for Biosecurity, Dr. O’Toole was a founding member of the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies, serving as its director from 2001-2003. She is Co-Editor-in-Chief of the journal Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice and Science and was a principal author and producer of Dark Winter, an influential exercise conducted in 2001 to alert national leaders to the dangers of bioterrorist attacks.

Dr. O’Toole served as Assistant Secretary of Energy for Environment, Safety and Health from 1993-1997, where she was principal advisor to the Secretary of Energy on environmental protection and oversaw health and safety for approximately 100,000 workers in government laboratories. In this position, Dr. O’Toole developed the first overall management and safety plan for dealing with waste left from nuclear weapons production.

Prior to joining DOE, Dr. O’Toole served as a Senior Analyst at the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment from 1989-1993, where she directed studies on the health impact of pollution resulting from nuclear weapons production, among other projects. Previously, she practiced internal medicine in Baltimore community health centers from 1984-1988. Dr. O’Toole holds an M.D. from George Washington University, an M.P.H. from Johns Hopkins University and a B.A. from Vassar College.

At this afternoon’s PFO media briefing, Secretary Napolitano cautions, “It’s not time to declare victory over H1N1.”  But she also announced that today’s was the last daily brief.   The full transcript is available from the DHS website.

Secretary Napolitano testified this morning before the Senate Judiciary Committee.  You can access her prepared testimony.  There is also an archived webcast of the full hearing (1 hour and 48 minutes long) available from the Committee’s website.  Jena McNeill with Heritage did real-time blogging.  A Reuters report focuses on border security.

Craig Fugate, nominated as FEMA administrator, is in a long holding pattern. “I am maintaining my hold on the FEMA nominee until I get answers to my specific requests — requests that I have had before the acting FEMA administrator for more than 60 days,”  Senator Vitter explained in a statement. Hurricane season is not waiting.  More from the Tallahassee Democrat.

At last week’s nomination hearing of Tim Manning (FEMA Deputy Administrator), Chairman Lieberman expressed concern regarding the DHS National Exercise Program.  A report released today by the Office of the Inspector General shares the Chairman’s concern.  “The Federal Emergency Management Agency… established a National Exercise Program and standardized the terrorism exercise process. However, the Department of Homeland Security has not secured adequate participation and support from other federal departments and agencies; state, territorial, and local entities; or the private sector in planning, implementing, and evaluating exercises or in the corrective action processes. In addition, after-action reports, best practices, and lessons learned from Top Officials exercises have not been disseminated to a broad national audience.”  (See the complete OIG report).

The House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Transportation Security and Infrastructure Protection has approved reauthorization of the Transportation Security Administration for fiscal years 2010 and 2011. (See: HR 2200) The bill now moves to the full committee.

According to The Hill, The DOJ OIG says, “the FBI failed to add targets of terrorism investigations to the Consolidated Terrorist Watchlist, the roster of more than 68,000 known or suspected terrorists used by law enforcement and border officers.” (See the complete IG report)