Comments on: Sign up to envision the future http://www.hlswatch.com/2010/07/06/sign-up-to-envision-the-future/ News and analysis of critical issues in homeland security today. Fri, 10 Feb 2012 16:03:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1 By: Homeland Security Watch » Lee Clarke’s 9 Future Catastrophes http://www.hlswatch.com/2010/07/06/sign-up-to-envision-the-future/comment-page-1/#comment-139988 Homeland Security Watch » Lee Clarke’s 9 Future Catastrophes Tue, 03 Aug 2010 06:06:05 +0000 http://www.hlswatch.com/?p=10281#comment-139988 [...] I learned about Lee Clarke’s 2005 book, “Worst Cases: Terror and Catastrophe in the Popular Imagination,” through a post on the Emergency Management Strategic Foresight Initiative website [registration required]. [...] [...] I learned about Lee Clarke’s 2005 book, “Worst Cases: Terror and Catastrophe in the Popular Imagination,” through a post on the Emergency Management Strategic Foresight Initiative website [registration required]. [...]

]]> By: Claire B. Rubin http://www.hlswatch.com/2010/07/06/sign-up-to-envision-the-future/comment-page-1/#comment-139669 Claire B. Rubin Wed, 07 Jul 2010 11:19:07 +0000 http://www.hlswatch.com/?p=10281#comment-139669 It would have be helpful if a succinct summary of the results of the April 14th workshop were shared so that respondents might see what has been suggested to date. The laundry list on the website for the project is not the best way, in my view, to stimulate thoughtful and informed discussion. It would have be helpful if a succinct summary of the results of the April 14th workshop were shared so that respondents might see what has been suggested to date. The laundry list on the website for the project is not the best way, in my view, to stimulate thoughtful and informed discussion.

]]> By: bellavita http://www.hlswatch.com/2010/07/06/sign-up-to-envision-the-future/comment-page-1/#comment-139664 bellavita Wed, 07 Jul 2010 02:51:31 +0000 http://www.hlswatch.com/?p=10281#comment-139664 I think from a methodological perspective, the online part of the SFI can usefully be seen in two contexts. First as a continuation of government's "ready, fire, aim" effort (starting with the QHSR) to expand who gets involved in deliberating over "important but not urgent" issues. I see the online effort as analogous to sending mail via planes in the early days of aviation. It is advancing the technology by helping us learn how to use it to further develop our republic. Secondly, the online activity is one element in FEMA's the three part activity described in April: · APRIL 14, 2010: Scoping Workshop This workshop will include participants from a wide cross-section of the emergency management community, select subject matter experts in relevant academic areas, select federal agencies, and other key stakeholders. At this event participants will begin to identify, define, and refine key issues and drivers that may impact the future of emergency management. · MAY 2010-JULY 2010: Online Collaboration Diverse participants from many disciplines and fields will join in moderated discussion through easy-to-access, easy-to-use online communities. Dialog will focus on better understanding emerging trends and future directions in key issue areas, and the potential implications for emergency management. · AUGUST 2010: Future Strategic Needs Workshop This workshop will synthesize the results of the online collaboration, leverage expert contributions in each area, and consider key issues and drivers in combination, examining their implications. The result of this workshop will be an emergent picture of future strategic needs for the field of emergency management. I think from a methodological perspective, the online part of the SFI can usefully be seen in two contexts. First as a continuation of government’s “ready, fire, aim” effort (starting with the QHSR) to expand who gets involved in deliberating over “important but not urgent” issues. I see the online effort as analogous to sending mail via planes in the early days of aviation. It is advancing the technology by helping us learn how to use it to further develop our republic.

Secondly, the online activity is one element in FEMA’s the three part activity described in April:

· APRIL 14, 2010: Scoping Workshop
This workshop will include participants from a wide cross-section of the emergency management community, select subject matter experts in relevant academic areas, select federal agencies, and other key stakeholders. At this event participants will begin to identify, define, and refine key issues and drivers that may impact the future of emergency management.

· MAY 2010-JULY 2010: Online Collaboration
Diverse participants from many disciplines and fields will join in moderated discussion through easy-to-access, easy-to-use online communities. Dialog will focus on better understanding emerging trends and future directions in key issue areas, and the potential implications for emergency management.

· AUGUST 2010: Future Strategic Needs Workshop
This workshop will synthesize the results of the online collaboration, leverage expert contributions in each area, and consider key issues and drivers in combination, examining their implications. The result of this workshop will be an emergent picture of future strategic needs for the field of emergency management.

]]> By: Arnold Bogis http://www.hlswatch.com/2010/07/06/sign-up-to-envision-the-future/comment-page-1/#comment-139662 Arnold Bogis Tue, 06 Jul 2010 22:59:45 +0000 http://www.hlswatch.com/?p=10281#comment-139662 Ms. Rubin, I am interested to hear a bit more why you question the methodology utilized. In my opinion, it is not as if this is a Yelp survey. At the beginning there is a good deal of self-selection, and afterward I hope at least a bit of Google searching before acceptance into the project. Just to check that those with a singular focus on certain issues (i.e. either side of the climate or immigration debate) are not included or at least forced to publicize their stances going into the project. I agree that this effort might not yield a whole lot in terms of concrete policy ideas or even suggestions going forward. But I do believe it is an exercise worth having, in that it shows there is at least some interest in beginning to think, plan, or at least consider situations that might arise after the current Administration is long out of power. Too often domestically we are reactionary, while internationally there are at least institutionalized attempts at anticipating future scenarios. Ms. Rubin, I am interested to hear a bit more why you question the methodology utilized.

In my opinion, it is not as if this is a Yelp survey. At the beginning there is a good deal of self-selection, and afterward I hope at least a bit of Google searching before acceptance into the project. Just to check that those with a singular focus on certain issues (i.e. either side of the climate or immigration debate) are not included or at least forced to publicize their stances going into the project.

I agree that this effort might not yield a whole lot in terms of concrete policy ideas or even suggestions going forward. But I do believe it is an exercise worth having, in that it shows there is at least some interest in beginning to think, plan, or at least consider situations that might arise after the current Administration is long out of power. Too often domestically we are reactionary, while internationally there are at least institutionalized attempts at anticipating future scenarios.

]]> By: William R. Cumming http://www.hlswatch.com/2010/07/06/sign-up-to-envision-the-future/comment-page-1/#comment-139658 William R. Cumming Tue, 06 Jul 2010 20:52:49 +0000 http://www.hlswatch.com/?p=10281#comment-139658 I continue to find it interesting that FEMA todate has ignored all statutory mandates to become a learning organization in part by analysis of real world ops and exercises. If you disagree perhaps you should study the FEMA investment in its Lessons Learned functions and activities. Guess who in FEMA's org chart is responsible for Lessons Learned? And which FEMA office is in charge of Foresight Activities? I continue to find it interesting that FEMA todate has ignored all statutory mandates to become a learning organization in part by analysis of real world ops and exercises. If you disagree perhaps you should study the FEMA investment in its Lessons Learned functions and activities. Guess who in FEMA’s org chart is responsible for Lessons Learned? And which FEMA office is in charge of Foresight Activities?

]]> By: Claire B. Rubin http://www.hlswatch.com/2010/07/06/sign-up-to-envision-the-future/comment-page-1/#comment-139653 Claire B. Rubin Tue, 06 Jul 2010 15:16:00 +0000 http://www.hlswatch.com/?p=10281#comment-139653 I question the methodology -- "crowdsourcing" is not always the right choice. I question the methodology — “crowdsourcing” is not always the right choice.

]]>