Homeland Security Watch

Mohamed Bouazizi

Homeland security in the United States emerged from a dramatic encounter with a perverse sort of martyrdom.  Bin Laden’s minions sacrificed themselves to murder innocents.  The murders have continued.

We have struggled to stop the isolated carriers of this contagion. We have been stymied in our efforts to staunch or even to accurately know their ultimate source. But the last ten weeks have offered important clues to what an effective counter-terrorism strategy will include.

When most other so-called martyrs are long forgotten, the name and story of Mohamed Bouazizi will be remembered.  In another era Bouazizi would be the protagonist of poetry, song, and myth.  This may yet be his destiny.

According to Eileen Byrne writing in the Financial Times:

Mohamed’s story is a dramatic example of the abusive behaviour of the Ben Ali regime and the rage it nurtured in Tunisians.

Since the age of 10 he had gone out after school to sell fruit and vegetables. His father had died when he was three, and his mother, Mannoubia, with her two small boys, married again. Her second husband was also a Bouazizi – it is a big family in the Lsouda area about 12 miles outside Sidi Bouzid.

According to Leila, a sister from the second marriage, Mohammed would pick up fruit and vegetables from the wholesale market each evening to sell on his cart the next day. He wanted to save to buy a delivery van, as the £50 or so he brought in each week was the household’s main income.

But the town-hall inspectors made his life a misery, according to his family. They would ask street sellers whether they had a trading licence, knowing that no such licence exists. When, on December 17, they confiscated his goods it was not the first time they had done so. According to his mother, at home Mohamed “was never angry. He never shouted as he was someone who had confidence in himself”.

Yet when the inspectors started to seize his merchandise a tussle began, his sister said bystanders had told the family. A female inspector slapped him, and another kicked him to the ground, witnesses told the family. Enraged, he went to the town hall to demand to speak to a local official, but was told: “There’s nothing you can do about it.” It was an official mind-set familiar to the inhabitants of Mr Ben Ali’s Tunisia.

So Mohamed bought some petrol and went to the office of the regional governor. He doused himself in the petrol, and demanded to see an official.

Friends have explained to the family that the trigger on his cigarette lighter jammed on the open position as he stood there. He had not intended to kill himself, his relatives reassure themselves. But the news of his self-immolation soon reached the neighbourhood, where many Bouazizi cousins live.

The Bouazizis descended on the prefecture. They can be seen, massed outside the closed railings, on a video uploaded to YouTube by a bystander with a mobile phone. They demanded to see the governor, and shouted that Mohamed Bouazizi could not be treated as a nobody.

Many Tunisians seem to have agreed with them, that enough was enough. “We have our pride,” Leila concluded quietly on Sunday. “As a family, we work and we don’t like people interfering with our family affairs. We like justice, and dignity.” (Read another profile of Bouazizi from Al Jazerra.)

Bouazizi died of his burns on January 4.  On January 14 the long-time Tunisian dictator fled.  On January 17 a young Egyptian, Ahmed Hashem Al Sayed, followed Bouazizi’s example.  He died the next day.   On February 11 Hosni Mubarak of Egypt resigned.   Weather has its butterfly effect.  We have now seen a social and political Bouazizi effect.

The purpose of the 9/11 attacks on the United States and others since has been, at least in part, to model and motivate the overthrow of Ben Ali, Mubarak, the Saudi royal family, and their ilk across the Arab world and beyond.   In late 2001 Ayman al Zawahiri, the Egyptian partner of bin Laden, explained al-Qaeda’s goal as, “The mobilization (tajyyish) of the nation, its participation in the struggle, and caution against the struggle of the elite with the authority.  The jihad movement must come closer to the masses, defend their honor, fend off injustice, and lead them to the path of guidance and victory…”

Despite this there is no evidence that al Qaeda — or its allies or its example or its goals — had any significant role in the recent and ongoing upheavals.  (Which is not to discount al-Qaeda seeking advantage in their wake.)

What might Bouazizi’s influence — and al-Qaeda’s comparative lack of influence — tell us about the role and strategy of homeland security?

Bin Laden, al-Zawahiri, Awlaki et al are self-serving egoists.  Tunisians, Egyptians, and Libyans are well-acquainted with the type.  Ben Ali was ever so. Mubarak gradually became little more. Gaddafi is but an especially vivid variation in form.

Religious, secular or crazy the terrorists and dictators are each their own hero, their own god. They want us to join them in hero-worship. You know the type, don’t you?  From time-to-time most of us encounter it in ourselves.

But Bouazizi is even more familiar.  We hope. We work. We dream. We plan. We do what we can.  Ambition falters.  Frustration unfolds.  Pettiness — our own as well as others — pesters our days.  Without great care, our very own sense of self can be stolen.

While bin Laden, Ben Ali, and others are self-serving, Bouazizi was self-sacrificing.  His was a paradoxical act.  Self-sacrifice requires authentic vulnerability and submission, yet projects power and courage. In Bouazizi’s self-sacrifice millions have recognized their own despair and their own claim on justice.

Where this will end up is far beyond any one’s ability to know.  But in this narrative our counter-terrorist mission can certainly better understand its challenge and its opportunity.

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, a former CIA officer and Chief of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Department following 9/11, as well as former Director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the Department of Energy, has published a new report on “Islam and the Bomb.”  This is not a philosophical or religious tract on the underlying beliefs of Muslims concerning violence, but instead an analysis of the arguments made for and against acquisition and use of nuclear weapons. From his preface:

When I began this project, my goal was to develop insight into the deeper thought process behind al-Qaeda’s nuclear intent. I expected to find evidence that their interest is strong, perhaps unshakable, but hinges on capability, i.e., they will use weapons of mass destruction if they are able to acquire them. Specifically, I set out to examine the impact al-Qaeda’s apparent frustration in acquiring WMD has had on the group’s intent; perhaps their interest has waned in recent years, or has been overtaken by global events.

I was surprised to discover that al-Qaeda’s WMD ambitions are stronger than ever. This intent no longer feels theoretical, but operational. I believe al-Qaeda is laying the groundwork for a large scale attack on the United States, possibly in the next year or two. The attack may or may not involve the use of WMD, but there are signs that al-Qaeda is working on an event on a larger scale than the 9/11 attack.

Mowatt-Larssen is concerned that Al Qaeda has gone out of its way to not simply justify violence against its enemies but a very particular and vast scale of destruction.

For years, I chased leads to al-Qaeda’s efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD), without finding the answers to fundamental questions. Yes, it is clear that al-Qaeda is seeking high-end WMD, specifically nuclear and biological weapons capable of causing mass casualties. But why has al-Qaeda set their sights so high? Isn’t a “dirty bomb” or a chemical device a more probable threat, since such weapons are much easier to obtain? What is al-Qaeda’s justification for using WMD — how much of a factor is religion in their thinking? What can terrorists hope to achieve by indiscriminately killing people on a mass scale?

Due to Al Qaeda’s use and seeming requirement of religious justification for such acts, Mowatt-Larssen contends that those justifications require analysis.

Considering the daunting challenge of divining what lies in someone’s mind, my modest objective is to present a framework for analyzing key factors that impact on the religious justification under Islam for and against nuclear weapons. Al-Qaeda (Sunni extremism) and Iran (Shia theocracy) are offered as two case studies in this regard, because their potential acquisition of nuclear weapons is of greatest contemporary concern. Presenting them side by side will invite a comparison of the respective arguments of a state and sub-state actor, in both houses of Islam. However, their inclusion together in this project should not be construed as an effort to compare or equate al-Qaeda and Iran with one another, either their motivations, or in moral terms.

The sections of this report represent a compilation of the various arguments that are being made in the Islamic community today. I have endeavored to faithfully represent the views of key voices in the Muslim world, scholars, and extremists, whether they are for or against nuclear weapons — and to put their testimony on the record. For this reason, the paper contains a large number of quotes and excerpts of key lines of reasoning for and against the bomb.

During a time when the majority of pundits and terrorism experts express the opinion that Al Qaeda represents an ideology that perhaps motivates action or inspires franchises and not a direct operational threat, Mowatt-Larssen’s ideas and conclusions will be controversial (never mind for those who discount the threat of nuclear terrorism entirely).

The entire report can be downloaded here: http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/uploads/Islam_and_the_Bomb-Final.pdf

Also challenging the conventional wisdom regarding Al Qaeda’s strength is Leah Farrall, an Australian counter terrorism analyst with an article in the latest edition of  Foreign Affairs. “How al qaeda works” argues that:

Despite nearly a decade of war, al Qaeda is stronger today than when it carried out the 9/11 attacks. Before 2001, its history was checkered with mostly failed attempts to fulfill its most enduring goal: the unification of other militant Islamist groups under its strategic leadership. However, since fleeing Afghanistan to Pakistan’s tribal areas in late 2001, al Qaeda has founded a regional branch in the Arabian Peninsula and acquired franchises in Iraq and the Maghreb. Today, it has more members, greater geographic reach, and a level of ideological sophistication and influence it lacked ten years ago.

For a limited time you can read the entire article for free on her blog, “All Things Counter Terrorism:” http://allthingscounterterrorism.com/foreign-affairs-article-how-al-qaeda-works/

I don’t mean to conjure the macabre with that headline, just to simply point out that there was a time in this nation’s history that preparing for the worst meant “nuclear combat toe-to-toe with the Ruskies” that would result in millions of deaths. I think it is absolutely a good thing that a few hundred is now considered a tragedy and a few thousand actually hard to fathom for some authorities. Unfortunately I also think that those same officials have been so focused on the everyday risks that planning for the worst days, and the associated benefits of such efforts, is a lost art.

What inspired me to such dark thoughts is the recent revelation of an official U.S. Air Force movie, “The Power of Decision,” that seems to have been filmed as a training exercise to show how to calmly react to the potential end of civilization as we know it. So calmly in fact, as a colleague pointed out, smoking a cigarette while ordering a retaliatory nuclear strike on the Soviet Union is just natural.

The National Security Archive at George Washington University guesses at its purpose:

It was probably used for internal training purposes so that officers and airmen could prepare for the worst active-duty situation that they could encounter.  Perhaps the relatively unruffled style of the film’s performers was to help serve as a model for SAC officers if they ever had to follow orders that could produce a nuclear holocaust.

While hard for those of us who were born well into the nuclear age to grasp, a concept of impending nuclear destruction was not hard to grok for earlier generations:

“The Power of Decision” may be the first (and perhaps the only) U.S. government film depicting the Cold War nightmare of a U.S.-Soviet nuclear conflict.  The U.S. Air Force produced it during 1956-1957 at the request of the Strategic Air Command.  Unseen for years and made public for the first time by the National Security Archive, the film depicts the U.S. Air Force’s implementation of war plan “Quick Strike” in response to a Soviet surprise attack against the United States and European and East Asian allies.  By the end of the film, after the Air Force launches a massive bomber-missile “double-punch,” millions of Americans, Russians, Europeans, and Japanese are dead.

Even though the U.S. “wins,” it does not seem to be much of a victory:

The United States suffered terrible losses: 60 million casualties including 20 million wounded. The industrial areas of several cities were destroyed, including New York, Detroit and Chicago. Other cities such as St. Louis, Denver and Seattle suffered severe damage and high casualties.

Both the trailer and full (one hour) movie can be watched on the website of the National Security Archive.  For both, go to: http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb336/index.htm

As my former hometown of Christchurch transitions from response to recovery, people have openly hoped and prayed for a miracle or two to buoy their flagging spirits. Still, it has been days since anyone was recovered alive from the rubble, and the body count continues to climb toward a figure officials now estimate will approach 240 souls. On top of the human toll, some damage estimates peg the economic impact of the disaster at something north of US$12 billion.

The devastation within the central business district and neighborhoods east of it is particularly pronounced. Sand boils and silt pushed to the surface by the force of the earthquake and the mechanism of liquefaction have now turned to unhealthy dust storms as winds picked up over the past day.

Somewhere between one-third and two-thirds of the buildings in the central business district will never be rebuilt and 10,000 or more homes may require demolition. Power and water have been restored to a substantial majority of households, but the damage to critical infrastructure remains severe enough to hamper recovery efforts.

Some estimates put the number of refugees fleeing the earthquake ravaged city at upwards of 50,000. Many of my friends like so many other families have sent their kids away to other cities so they can return to school while parents sort out what to do next.

All of this sounds pretty dire, and to be sure it is. But despite all the devastation and the debilitating effects of fatigue wrought by successive days and nights in response mode with little hope of sleep much less the opportunity to do so, people have still found it possible to look on the lighter and brighter side of their predicament.

One aid worker captured the following effort to rekindle the pioneer spirit in fellow Cantabrians while following the efforts of the Los Angeles County Urban Search and Rescue Task Force deployed by the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance:

The University of Canterbury’s Student Volunteer Army must be getting slap-happy after days of backbreaking work shoveling silt from suburban streets as they are now working to build the World’s Tallest Leaning Tower of Pizza:

Judging by some of the photos you would not be so wrong to assume that disasters bring out the pre-adolescent in those of us who can no longer take the usual creature comforts of civilized sanitation facilities for granted:

If the earthquake found you unprepared and — pardon the off-color pun — you suddenly find yourself without a pot to piss in, no worries, mate.

People find themselves much more easily amused when the chips are down. Take this checklist for example: “You know you are from Christchurch when …

People in Wellington — the national capitol got a little bit worried that they might be next when a M4 earthquake struck the city recently. In response, Cantabrians quipped they don’t even get out of bed anymore for a shake less than M5.

The entrepreneurial spirit remains alive and well in Christchurch too. One enterprising victim of the an earthquake-induced rockfall has offered the boulder that crashed through his house for auction on the New Zealand equivalent of eBay. Bids are already up to NZ$950. If you fancy this oversized relic for your rock garden there’s just one catch: The winning bidder must come and get the item.

If none of this is enough to cheer you up, consider the hope inspired today by the discovery of two relics of Christchurch’s past. Workers found a glass bottle containing a small piece of parchment near the fallen statue of the city’s founder, John Robert Godley, and a metal cylinder sealed with solder amidst the debris of the Anglican cathedral. Both items have been transferred to the Canterbury Museum for conservation and inspection.

Mayor Bob Parker remarking on the find said he hopes the contents of the supposed time capsules will help illuminate the city’s future by telling people, “Why (our forebears) came here, what was their vision. (sic)” Putting Godley’s likeless back upon its perch has emerged as a top priority for leaders like Mayor Parker and Canterbury Museum director Anthony Wright who suggested, “(We must) get Godley back onto his plinth and show Christchurch it started here and lets start again, so we can show that we’re not going to lie down.”

In the midst of chaos, death and devastation, it no doubt helps to take heart in small miracles …

P.S.: Christchurch’s own Wizard of New Zealand, no stranger to hardship himself, cast his spell over the city once more shortly after announcing he will stay despite earlier reports he too would flee the devastation … “I call (upon) the nine spiritual hierarchies: (cherubim), seraphim, domination, powers, principalities, thrones and virtues, archangels and angels to protect and cherish Christchurch.” Here’s hoping it works!