“We have no idea what’s going to happen [in the weather] beyond three days out.”
Here’s an explanation about why it’s so difficult to get weather forecasts right:
“Weather forecasting is complex and not always accurate, especially for days further in the future, because the weather can be chaotic and unpredictable…. Moreover, the earth’s atmosphere is a complicated system that is affected by many factors and can react in different ways.”
As difficult as it is to predict what is going to happen in a system where the material parameters are known, imagine trying to predict how human systems will behave several months from now.
Imagine you are sitting on top of a mountain and you can see:
Organizers calling on “redeemers, rebels, and radicals” to occupy Chicago during the the G8 and the NATO summit in Chicago in May.
The G8 summit switching its location (on Monday) to Camp David. Administration officals explain “the prospect of the antiglobalization protests common to such gatherings was not a factor in the decision to change locations.” But folks are still coming to Chicago anyway.
Republican and Democratic political conventions coming this summer to Tampa and Charlotte.
Some Americans demonstrating to exercise their First Amendment rights. They don’t like what’s going on in the country and they want their voice to be heard. Other people demonstrating to smash windows and throw urine on police officers. Cities trying to figure out how to pay for all this.
The Occupy Movement in several cities issuing Good Neighbor policies, trying to guide behaviors for the next incarnation of the movement.
Sophisticated police departments who experienced Year 1 of Occupy increasingly able to identify “the good guys” from the “bad guys.”
Anonymous and Occupy join hands.
Popular uprisings in other countries continue to be routine news.
Both houses of Congress agreeing to the provisions of HR347, innocently titled the “Federal Restricted Buildings and Grounds Improvement Act of 2011.” (According to one of the few representatives who voted against the bill, it should be called “the ‘First Amendment Rights Eradication Act’ because it effectively outlaws protests near people who are ‘authorized” to be protected by the Secret Service.” Apparently that also includes restricting protests at National Special Security Events, like political conventions.)
Social media tools — hardware and software — making it even easier than it was a year ago to spread information and rumor, truth and lies, and streaming video.
Add to those terrain features, the pressure gradients of unemployment, gas prices, a fragile global and national economy, the 1% versus 99% meme, terrorists looking for a win, a congress that seems unable to agree on much, stuff we have no clue about right now, and a presidential campaign.
With those images in mind, as you sit on top of your imaginary mountain, watch this 121 second video from The Guardian.
Now make a forecast: what will happen in Chicago in May, in Tampa in August, Charlotte in September, Oakland tomorrow, and other America cities any day now?
If a nation knows there’s a good chance a storm is coming, how does it prepare? What does the 72 hour kit for that look like?