Homeland Security Watch

News and analysis of critical issues in homeland security

November 15, 2014

Ebola source sitrep 5

Filed under: Biosecurity,Public Health & Medical Care,Strategy — by Philip J. Palin on November 15, 2014

The number of deaths traced to the current Ebola outbreak now exceeds 5000.  The rate of transmission has not increased in Guinea and has slowed in Liberia. But the situation in Sierra Leone is continuing to worsen.  A new network of Ebola cases has emerged in Mali among health workers who were exposed while caring for a man with kidney failure.  The patient was also suffering from a non-diagnosed Ebola infection.

Ebola_November 14

The fatality rate among those exposed to the Ebola virus is falling. In June the fatality rate for this West African outbreak was estimated at 90 percent.  In September the fatality rate was still at least seventy percent.  In prior Ebola outbreaks — much smaller in scope — the fatality rate has averaged 50 percent of those infected.   There are some studies that suggest with early intervention the fatality rate is now as low as 25 percent.

These are small and still unconfirmed studies.  But on a preliminary basis it is reasonable to observe:

  • The amount of circulating viral load was higher in those who died than in survivors; those patients with the highest levels of virus were most likely to die.
  • One of the strongest determinants of survival appears to be patient age. Patients older than 40 years were nearly 3.5 times more likely to die than those aged less than 40. The association between an older age and a higher risk of death was found regardless of whether the patient had co-morbidities or not.
  • Evidence of substantial fluid loss and profound electrolyte derangement associated with severe diarrhoea appears to increase the risk of a fatal outcome. More aggressive supportive care, especially intravenous rehydration, is thought to improve the prospects of survival.

Seriously compromising the ability to provide early diagnosis and care is a public health infrastructure insufficient to conduct the necessary contact-tracing. According to the November 12 WHO update:

Between 3 and 8 November, 5301 new contacts were identified in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, compared with 4067 new contacts traced in the previouwoulds week. A total of 95% (124,214 of 130,140) of required daily contact visits were conducted. However, the proportion of contacts reached was lower in many districts. Each district is reported to have at least one contact-tracing team in place. On average, only 10 contacts were listed per case in the three countries in the past week. The low average number of contacts listed per case suggests that the estimate of 95% gives an unduly favourable view of the success of contact tracing. Active case finding teams are being mobilized as a complementary case detection strategy.

The situation in West Africa remains very bad, but it is not — yet? — as bad as some projected in September or even early October. The predictions have, in part, been disrupted by increased public health interventions, improved clinical care, and — especially — altered population behavior.  While the threat of the virus was too long underplayed, since August a creative and committed response has paid-off.

In recognition of the continuing high risks, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), an NGO with deep experience in the region, has recommended a new strategic approach, “Agile and well-equipped rapid response teams should be deployed quickly to actively investigate hotspots wherever they occur, and mount a comprehensive response.” This approach would depend much less on the construction and operation of isolation-and-treatment centers.

The rainy season is coming to an end in West Africa.  Typically the dry season sees a substantial increase in population movements.  This increased mobility will threaten the fragile progress that has been made.  The current ten-day forecast for Monrovia predicts almost daily rain and thunderstorms.  But early December is predicted to be bright and sunny.

Meeting early today in Brisbane the G20 affirmed and expanded commitments to fight Ebola in West Africa.  The world’s leading economies also signaled that more needs to be done to prevent and mitigate infectious threats much worse than Ebola: “This outbreak illustrates the urgency of addressing longer-term systemic issues and gaps in capability, preparedness and response capacity that expose the global economy to the impacts of infectious disease.”

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5 Comments »

Comment by Christopher Tingus

November 15, 2014 @ 7:56 am

Regarding Ebola, I do preface my Homeland Security real concerns this morning with the following continued expressions of serious concerns on our home front rather than on the African continent w/Ebola worthy of comment, yet given the very dangerous time we are now challenged by and….

While admittedly the failed American media embracing a more anti-Christian and anti-Jewish sentiment and the blatant and intentional failure not to report the real stories adversely affecting the American public at a very dangerous time in history is more than disturbing and while our southern border particularly remains porous in so many ways, Ebola remains considerably down the list of Homeland Security issues….

With the real possibility that substantial earthquake news in the Pacific Rim will dominate the news cycle in the coming weeks and further distraction from this failed executive WH who visits China and comes home w/o a signed environmental agreement which even if signed, China would never adhere to as its priorities are far different to ours especially seeing a weakened America by a gum chewing, incompetent and truly limited and perverse White House where Putin and China’s elders as well as India take this opportunity to align themselves in more important matters as time marches forward, China’s alignment w/the Russians and “signing” real Agreements to secure “energy products” from Russian sourcing while continued cyber attacks continue from Chinese origin towards America and even reaching to NOAA of all agencies and surely for many of us, so much concern about our vulnerable electric grid and again, Barry Obama chewing his gum and Not a clue what the more astute and elder Chinese leadership has in mind….What nonsense and absurdity abounds in this 21st century here in a failed American leadership promoted twice by the seemingly importance of casting a vote for the pigment of skin or the first woman as President despite the obvious incompetence among these candidates when in fact so much information is so available and the lessons of history are bound and available to us…. What deception! How absurd and soon a moment when the shock and awe will prevail and the American populace in chaos for it cannot even appropriately handle Ebola so disorganized and unprepared and I cannot even fathom what will happen when a dirty bomb finds so many victims and a nation so unprepared…..what absurdity!

As Iraq soon falls to the same Tehran, yes the same Tehran who will now have multiple WMD’s in hand afforded by the illustrious Barry Obama and his pal, the Rev Wright, so biased and hate mongers towards the Hebrew and as the third intifada soon grips Jerusalem and as verse submits, east Jerusalem, my favorite city for which many of us once they have visited yearn to revisit, east Jerusalem which will encounter much chaos and destruction….

So when we talk about Ebola, first, I have continually heard from my African friends and colleagues that many in the west attribute much success in thwarting the spread of Ebola to the Gates Foundation w/many stating that the Gates Foundation has been foremost in being heralded in the eradication of Ebola in Nigeria…. I, like many others differ in such understand as it has been WHO and other organizations that have truly been helping the countries of Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia and Nigeria and further, many truly believe the west’s affluence and substantial monies promoted much of this Ebola outbreak by those favoring agronomy and some have pointed to the fact that pan-Africans eat meat more and more as do many other cultures as poverty lessens and even fruit bats which many attribute in the spread of the Ebola disease!

In a recent statement by WHO, it is interesting to note that despite crowded and unsanitary conditions in lagos alone where some 21 million people live together, an urban population which is far greater than Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone combined and certainly impressive as a population center and as Nigerian officials had been concerned that any equation of Lagos and Ebola would cause panic and real consequences for such a large urban sprawl and so many close to one another, WHO which has declared Nigeria free from Ebola has also pointed out that Nigeria had eradicated guinea-worm disease which had some 650,000 cases just last year and has exemplified the efforts of local officials and especially the World Health Organization and others in just what can be accomplished in working together and understanding the why’s and working together as a community and welcoming the global community to bring such outstanding results in combating disease and the plagues which have been promised to come forward given mankind’s insistence to stray far from God’s very own laws conveyed to each of us to keep Life simplified rather than the numerous possibilities which exist for near extinction!

God Bless America and God Bless us all!

Mr. Putin is not only extending his reach just off NATO territory, but just off Australia and here on the east coast of the United States and those in Estonia and other nations close to Mr. Putin who holds so much contempt for NATO and will do his best to make every reach to reestablishing the Soviet Union especially given the weakened United States with a US Navy dwindling and an Air Force whose aging aircraft are causing real concern and US policy makers and a media far to the left which continues to erode US global presence in many ways and does not bode well for America whose leadership in pledge to the Constitution will Not even enforce present laws and seek to circumvent the US Constitution in every way….

God Bless us all for the road now as promised without repentance and a strong arsenal in Democracy will present much anguish for so many who fail to see a US bankrupted and bankrupted now more than $18 trillion times and another deception when telling bank account clients that the FDIC guarantees their monies up to $250,000 when in fact the US government gives itself some 99 years to pay you this supposed false assurance towards your funds which would be best for those of you who have any real funds remaining to hide such money in gold coin under your pillows! For the rest of us, the shelves of the food bank are becoming less and less and we thank those who leave us at least the cans of peas and corn!

While we await Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg and the big duping by our arch enemies, the Assyrians who will dupe so many, though at least deal with Tehran, unless the American populace becomes truly enlightened as to the real challenges before us much as a result of two political parties and especially a more and more left leaning Democratic party which spells gloom and doom for not only the US but many other nations, the road ahead and not-too-far in the distance will be arduous and for those remaining and recollecting Ebola, a world riddled with so much corruption commencing with this present White House and this “Chicago-Hollywood-wWashington charade” inherent with such hatred and intent on weakening our Judeo-Christian values….

We folks are in much peril!

Again, God Bless our beloved Republic! Let’s really assure ourselves that our electric grid above all else is safeguarded from cyber attack and physical attack as has taken place more than one just in California recently and then let us kick out the Elizabeth Warren’s and these liberals such as “Smug-smiled Pelosi” and her kind who have lined their bank accounts who have lined their bank accounts and talk twisted from their mouths and as we saw this past week, disrespecting and having little esteem for you the voter who they really believe can be duped so….

Ebola, folks, let’s worry about a dirty bomb and a Justice department and a Homeland Security group of elitists who fail to uphold our laws and support our Constitution and see the top cop in the nation and this Barry Obama running to Ferguson to spur on more divisiveness, just as Barry Obama did back in Cambridge with his Martha’s Vineyard Har’vd Professor pal bring the White House into a local 911 call and police matter which did Not warrant the white House’s attention to….

Comment by William R. Cumming

November 15, 2014 @ 9:00 am

Thanks Phil for this post and series of posts!

Comment by William R. Cumming

November 17, 2014 @ 12:03 pm

Another death in US from EBOLA!

Pingback by Prepper News Watch for November 17, 2014 | The Preparedness Podcast

November 17, 2014 @ 1:56 pm

[…] Ebola source sitrep 5 […]

Comment by Christopher Tingus

November 19, 2014 @ 9:10 pm

Ebola Cases and Deaths (West Africa)
As of November 11, 2014*
Total Cases: 14413
Laboratory-Confirmed Cases: 8920
Total Deaths: 5177
Updates on cases and deaths can be found on the CDC website.

*Case counts updated in conjunction with World Health Organization updates and are based on information reported by the Ministries of Health.

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