What to be vigilant about?
Sometimes something huge. Sometimes not.
Monday night it’s oceans of snow spilling onto the northeast, painted green and yellow by the Weather Channel radar.
Monday morning it was 2 pounds of drone crashing into a White House tree, invisible to the best radar money can buy.
What to be vigilant about?
Someone credible guesses that by 2016, 1% of the world’s population (about 7 million people) will own more wealth than the other 99% combined.
I’m guessing many of the people who attended last week’s World Economic Forum in Davos represent the interests of the 7 million.
Samuel P. Huntington (the “Clash of Civilizations” guy) called these people Davos Men, or “gold collar workers”:
…these transnationalists have little need for national loyalty, view national boundaries as obstacles that thankfully are vanishing, and see national governments as residues from the past whose only useful function is to facilitate the elite’s global operations. In the coming years, one corporation executive confidently predicted, “the only people who will care about national boundaries are politicians.”
If you’re looking for something else to be vigilant about, you can read more of Huntington’s warning in the 2004 National Interest article joyously called “Dead Souls: The Denationalization of the American Elite.”
[End of Break]
The Davos Men issued their 2015 Global Risks report a few days ago describing what they believe we should all be vigilant about.
Here’s a excerpt from the report’s conclusion:
Our lives are very different today from when the first Global Risks report was published a decade ago. Little did the world imagine the possibility of the implosion of global financial markets that plunged the world into a socioeconomic crisis from which it is still struggling to emerge. The “real world” was nowhere near as interconnected with the virtual one: Twitter did not exist, Facebook was still a student-only service, and the iPhone and Android were still one and two years, respectively, away from their commercial release. The power of interconnectivity has since shown itself forcefully – be it from the convening power of the Arab Spring, the revelation of massive cyber espionage around the National Security Agency, or fast moving developments in new disruptive business models that are fundamentally changing the global economic landscape.
… [As] people’s lives are becoming more complex and more difficult to manage, businesses, governments and individuals alike are being forced to decide upon courses of action in an environment clouded by multiple layers of uncertainty. … [D]ecisionmakers … are recognizing that risks are no longer isolated but inherently dynamic in nature and crossing many spheres of influence. Against this backdrop, the need to collaborate and learn from each other is clearer than ever….
Ten years of “doing risks” has also led to the recognition that a short-term vision prevents addressing long-term issues. Some slower-moving trends have continued inexorably: the last 10 years have brought conclusive proof that the earth’s climate is changing and that human activities are to blame – yet progress to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions remains frustratingly slow. …
Indeed, our self-perception as homines economici or rational beings has faltered in the aftermath of the financial crisis, whose effects are still unfolding socially, as persistent unemployment, ever-rising inequality, unmanaged migration flows and ideological polarization are among the factors stretching societies dangerously close to the breaking point. Social fragility is even threatening geopolitical stability, as breakdowns in cooperation within states make relations between states more difficult. And a quarter-century after the fall of the Berlin Wall, interstate conflict is once again one of the key risks in terms of likelihood and impact. Yet the means through which conflicts can be pursued are growing more varied, … – from geo-economic tools, such as trade sanctions, to cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, to the potential for a new arms race in lethal autonomous weapons systems. …
Breathes there the man, with soul so dead,
Who never to himself hath said,
This is my own, my native land!
Whose heart hath ne’er within him burn’d,
As home his footsteps he hath turn’d,
From wandering on a foreign strand!
— Walter Scott, 1805