Montage of August, 2005 Katrina storm track Five years ago Sunday the hurricane weakened as it rolled past New Orleans.  What a lucky break. But then one levee broke, then another. Eventually there were 53 breached levees.  Southern Mississippi was hit harder, but a certain fixation with the city is not inappropriate.  Eighty percent of Americans are concentrated in urban areas.   Our density depends on attenuated networks of infrastructure and supply chains that we seldom see and most barely understand.  In the Big Easy infrastructure crumbled, the power grid failed, supply chains severed, and life became very hard.  Death came for over 1800. Yet we knew Katrina was coming.  We saw her swing through Florida heading  our way.  There was a mandatory evacuation. Most escaped.  She ended up a Cat 1 or Cat 2, far from the worst. Still consequences were plenty bad.  The blues were given another deep bend. Not to diminish the impact or its implications, Katrina was the "last war."  Whatever was learned ought be used for the even tougher task ahead.  We cannot know precisely when it will happen or where it will hit, but we can be certain it's heading our way. The map immediately below projects  potential earthquake impacts in the United States.   The Pacific ring-of-fire we know, even if we are usually in deep denial.  The faults along the middle Mississippi and the South Carolina coast still surprise many.  The possibility of strong quakes without an adjacent fault stacks the odds higher still.       USGS earthquake hazard estimates This is the best notice we will get. Earthquake is hardly the only no-notice threat. Most natural, accidental, and intentional threats are no notice (or little notice) events.  Lack of notice increases the likelihood a trigger event will cascade toward catastrophe. We cannot predict, but we can anticipate.  Knowing what we know now, what should we being doing now?  Are we doing it? For further consideration: National Earthquake Information Center  (United States Geological Service) Sustainable Critical Infrastructure Systems (National Research Council) Mission Improbable: Using Fantasy Documents to Tame Disaster (Lee Clarke, University of Chicago Press) Catastrophic Disaster Planning and Response (Clifford Oliver, CRC Press) Building Resilient Communities (P.H. Longstaff and K. Perrin, Syracuse University) Resilience: The Grand Strategy (Homeland Security Affairs Journal) Updated Friday Morning:

Krakatoa Remembered

     2004 eruption of "Child of Krakatoa" On this date in 1883 the Krakatoa volcano exploded.  It was one of the largest volcanic eruptions in recorded history.

• The 23km square island of Krakatoa existed at a height of 450m above sea level. The blast leveled most of the island to 250m below sea level.
• Pyroclastic flows traveled as far as 40km from the island consuming traversing ships in fire and ash.
• The sound of the final explosion was heard over 4500km away and covered 1/13th of the Earth's surface.
• The eruption generated tsunamis 40m high that devastated nearby coastlines.
• The final death toll from pyroclastic flows, volcanic bombs, and tsunamis was calculated to be a devastating 36,417.

More available at: http://www.earlham.edu/~bubbmi/krakatoa.htm Thanks to Bill Cumming for the reminder.  I understand President Arthur asked Bill to undertake a close examination of the event in order to generate lessons-learned.

Mount Sinabung erupts, first time in 400 years

Early Sunday, August 29 -- Priyadi Kardono from Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency told the BBC that more than 10,000 people were being evacuated from nearby villages. MORE FROM THE BBC

At this specific moment nothing is more important to homeland security than what is happening in Pakistan.  The confluence of a  profound natural cataclysm, a whole range of cascading accidents and failures, and the prospect of what this will mean for violent extremism in South Asia and around the world is worth our careful attention and thoughtful action.  What we can learn from this cataclysm and how it may yet unfold has a host of domestic implications. Today I urge you to visit the website for DAWN, the most widely read English-language newspaper in Pakistan.

http://www.dawn.com/

UPDATE: Wednesday, August 18: Recently a few of us have been discussing whether there is any benefit distinquishing between a disaster and a catastrophe and a cataclysm.  Too roughly, a disaster is very bad.  A catastrophe is a disaster from which there will be no real recovery.  In our personal lexicon, a cataclysm is an almost total washing away of what previously existed. It is, perhaps, appropriate that the Greek kataklysmós means a thorough, complete, degenerating flood. Desperation grows over Pakistan flood damage (New York Times) Pakistan floods could sweep away weak government (CBS News) Taliban will not be allowed to take advantage of crisis (DAWN) Following is the original post from Sunday, August 15.  This was intended to build on the two prior posts. Asian Jet Stream as of August 15 "Weather Underground Forecast for Monday, August 16, 2010. A long front that will initially extend from the eastern Sea of Japan through southeast China will be the biggest weather producer in eastern Asia as it moves slowly eastward throughout the day. Steady precipitation is expected through southeast China, but farther inland than the normally hard hit areas due to the monsoons. The monsoons themselves will be weak in nature with only scattered showers and thunderstorms likely along the southeast coast of China." See current conditions and forecast for Peshawar, Pakistan. See current conditions and forecast for Moscow, Russia. See current conditions and forecast for Gansu, China From Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog:

"The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the midlatitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history."  MORE.

The historical record suggests these events are atypical, but recur.  We cannot precisely predict time and place, but we can anticipate the recurrence of such extremities.  We cannot prevent.  But we can make choices that exacerbate or mitigate the experience of harm when they do recur. Monday Update: Pakistan: Authorities warn of new floods as heavy rain falls (DAWN) Pakistan: Food related inflation (DAWN) China: Torrential rains forecast for August 16 and 17 (AFP) Chinese economy surpasses Japan (Financial Times) Russia: Fires shrink (Wall Street Journal) Gale force winds hit St. Petersburg (Moscow Times) More bread for your daily loaf (The Sun) Tuesday Update: Pakistan: Mother of all disasters: Second wave of death feared (Sydney Morning Herald) China: Torrential rains leave 36 dead, 23 missing (Xinhua) Russia: Industry output growth slows in record heat (Reuters)

Flooding in Pakistan, picture by Reuters Further to my Thursday post (immediately below), comments on it, and unfolding events, please access the following updates:

20 million homeless in Pakistan (Guardian) Cholera confirmed in Pakistan flood disaster (AP) A long view of Indus River flooding (BBC) Heavy rains continue in China (Xinhua) Shanghai temperature hits 104 degree F (40 degrees C) (China People's Daily) Yuan has biggest weekly drop in 20 months (Bloomberg) Russian fires shrink, consequences grow (Wall Street Journal) Russia Wheat: Drought has reduced yield by 40 percent in key production regions (USDA, 1.08 MB download) Residents save water in wake of Ames flood (Des Moines Register) Consolidated coverage of all Iowa flooding (Des Moines Register)

Not to be a nag, but all these situations are white -- not black -- swans.  Each of these "natural" disasters have been amplifed by human choice.  Each has -- at least local and perhaps broader -- catastrophic potential.  Are we watching the way a white swan might evolve into a black swan?

A persistent drought and intense heat has brought huge wildfires to the Moscow region, killing off  twenty percent or more of the Russian wheat harvest.  The international price of wheat doubled between late June and last week. (This week the market is a bit confused). A super-flood has inundated the breadbasket of Pakistan directly affecting 14 million people. According to Al-Jazeera, "The prices of basic items such as tomatoes, onions, potatoes and squash have in some cases quadrupled in recent days, putting them out of reach for many Pakistanis." China has experienced significant flooding in several regions since late May, and more heavy rain is predicted.  In July Chinese food costs increased 6.8 percent as a result of flood-related supply problems. The floods have also worsened conditions in already hungry North Korea. The geopolitical and broader economic consequences remain to be seen. These extreme events -- plus the earthquake in Haiti and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami -- are sometimes categorized as "low probability, high consequence" events.  That's not quite right.  More accurately these are "low frequency, high consequence" events. 8.0 earthquakes are infrequent. But in any given year on a global basis such earthquakes are highly probable.  The probability of such an earthquake devastating California increases slightly each day.   In homeland security -- and other disciplines -- we are helpfully encouraged to consider what Nassim Nicholas Taleb has tagged as Black Swan events.  Mr. Taleb explains a Black Swan has three attributes:

First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.

What is happening in the Indus River valley has also happened in the Yellow River valley and will recur in other river valleys.  Last night flooding in Iowa killed one and displaced hundreds. What is happening outside Moscow occurs each year outside (occasionally inside) San Diego and Melbourne.  Earlier this week California firefighters contained a large fire near Banning. Such disasters should be a regular expectation because historical events convincingly point to their recurrence.   Unfortunately, our sense of history seems to have a half-life of about ten days.  As a result, we are perpetually surprised. In a new history, Empires of Food: Feast, Famine and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations, the authors outline three fundamental policy errors that recur in history, across several civilizations, and which may characterize our contemporary situation:

In the modern world, we've made the same three mistakes that the Romans made and the Mayans made. And that first mistake is that we, too, have come to depend on fertile topsoil. And we have ignored the fact that the topsoil is eroding. Now, we've masked our problems with topsoil with chemical fertilizer, but that just swaps one dependency for another. The second mistake we've made is the fact that we've come to depend on harvests, which we get from relatively nice climates. And the late 20th century was pretty good, generally speaking, for growing season - say, between 1930 and 1990, there were no major climatic shocks in the world's bread baskets. Things are likely, however, to change. The third mistake we've made in the modern age, which also echoes the historic antecedents, is that we have caused our farmers to grow economically efficient by specializing in one or two products. And while this makes wonderful economic sense, it's terrible ecology. (August 7 NPR interview)

Patterns are perceived over time and space.  The scope of time and space available to us is key to the accuracy of our perceptions.   But... regardless of this scope, we are strongly inclined to favor direct over indirect perception.  It requires unusual effort to apply indirect knowledge as vigorously as direct experience.

I have only seen one black swan.  From a distance it was an beguiling creature.  I have  had, in contrast, several unhappy encounters with white swans. They are aggressive, mean, and smelly animals.  I understand -- and accept -- Mr. Taleb's conceptual distinction.  But in the flesh, a white swan may not be so different from a black swan. 

If I am attentive and as well-prepared as possible to meet a white swan -- or a flock of white swans -- I should be a bit better prepared for the black swan as well.

For further consideration:

Is another food crisis coming? (Time)

Chinese economy slows (China People's Daily) and related: US stocks fall (Wall Street Journal)

Russian fires, Pakistan floods may be linked (National Geographic)

Pakistan floods: An emergency for the West (The Telegraph)

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You should have Seen Coming and How to Prevent Them

Friday Update:

Floods likely to have destroyed crops worth $1 billion (DAWN) (Pakistan)

Devastating power of China floods (BBC)

Ames faces water crisis (Des Moines Register)

Russia's peatland fires seen burning for months (Reuters)

Sunday Update:

In weather chaos: A case for global warning (Front Page of Sunday New York Times)

 

To highlight the screamingly obvious, two headlines from Thursday, August 5, and a few related headlines since. Over 500,000 to Evacuate from Sindh (DAWN) -  "Pakistani authorities began evacuating half a million people living along the swollen Indus River in the country’s south on Thursday, as floods caused by the worst monsoon rains in decades threatened new destruction.  The floods have already killed an estimated 1,500 people over the past week, most of them in the northwest. An estimated 4.2 million Pakistanis have been affected, including many in eastern Punjab province, which has seen numerous villages swallowed by rising water in recent days." (Saturday morning the BBC reports that over 12 million are now affected.) Al-Qaeda in Pakistan Top Threat (BBC) -  "Al-Qaeda's leadership in Pakistan and its affiliates in Africa remain the biggest threats to US and its interests abroad, a US government report says. The annual terrorism report states that al-Qaeda encountered setbacks in 2009 but has proved to be 'resilient and adaptable'." Quite often the difference between disaster and catastrophe is a cascade of coincidence.  Cause and effect cannot be predicted because the interaction of events cannot be forseen.  Only in retrospect do we recognize  the straw that broke the back was neither one nor the other (nor the other), but a combination. I am not predicting anything.  Two dots connecting  -- even colliding -- do not necessarily cause an explosion.  But without disciplined attention we sometimes seem to miss the obvious. Left, below: BBC Map of Pakistan food zone as of August 5. (More detailed maps will appear in a new window by clicking on the images below)         Right, above: BBC map of Taliban influence in Northwest Pakistan (2009).  Since this map was generated the government has reasserted substantial control in Swat and neighboring districts in the North.  The situation in FATA remains volatile. South Waziristan is occupied by significant elements of the Pakistani military.  North Waziristan continues to be under the control of the Taliban-in-Pakistan and is thought to provide sanctuary to al-Qaeda. For further consideration: Hard-Line Islam Fills Void in Flooded Pakistan (New York Times) (Thanks Eric for the link, embarrassed to have missed it.) More rains hit flooded Pakistan, Islamists step up (Associated Press) Forecast: More rain, expected to be especially heavy on Sunday (DAWN) Sunday Update: Landslides kill more in flood-hit Pakistan (AFP) Pakistan pleads for help as disaster worsens (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) U.S. assesses own plans after Pakistan floods (Reuters India) Monday Update: Pakistan floods could swamp Sindh (BBC) (Note: the flooding is now wiping out much of this year's harvest in the Indus river valley. Over the next 24 to 36 hours the flooding will peak in the urban centers of Karachi and Hyderabad Landslides cut off Swat Valley (Aljazeera) No respite in sight as more rains forecast (DAWN) "With water flows continuing to increase at Guddu and Sukkur, weather pundits have forecast an extended rainy spell, at times heavy, raising fears of aggravation of the ‘super flood’ in the Indus."

In responding to catastrophe -- an 8.0 and above earthquake, a thousand year flood, a cascading  biological contagion, etc.  --  right after providing potable water is the problem of food distribution.  In some of Lee Clarke's worst case scenarios there is a more basic problem of maintaining food production. This week both of Australia's leading political parties added food security to their list of policy priorities for the current national election. One member of the Australian Senate writes, "The world has embarked on a dangerous era of food insecurity and imperialism which will fuel conflict and famine if it is ignored. Australia is not immune. Land and water should be treated as strategic resources by us as they are by many in the world." The Department of Homeland Security explains that  Homeland Security Presidential Directive 9, "establishes a national policy to defend the agriculture and food system against terrorist attacks, major disasters, and other emergencies. America's agriculture and food system is an extensive, open, interconnected, diverse, and complex structure providing potential targets for terrorist attacks. U.S. agriculture and food systems are vulnerable to disease, pest, or poisonous agents that occur naturally, are unintentionally introduced, or are intentionally delivered by acts of terrorism." Given the obvious importance of food, are there vulnerabilities in the current food system worth particular attention?  Well, as a possibility, help me refine this hypothesis: Economies of scale suppress risk resilience.   The food system is one context where this hypothesis might be tested. Over the last half century increasing scale and specialization of production and processing have significantly reduced the consumers cost of food as a proportion of overall income.  The source of this savings has, however, also substantially reduced the number, diversity, and  distribution of producers and processors. This narrows the ability of the food system to bounce back from a catastrophic event.  If this is true for the food system might it also be the case for other supply chains? I am the son and grandson of grocers.  I grew up working on the farms of downstate Illinois.  In my lifetime I have seen the food system move from what now seems simple, to complicated, to a sort of complexity and -- if a catastrophe would occur -- to potentially teetering on the edge of chaos. Some of my earliest memories are of farmers backing their trucks up to grandpa's slaughterhouse.   The hogs and cattle -- rarely some sheep -- were off-loaded into the two dozen wooden stalls attached to the white cinder-block slaughterhouse. Monday through Saturday nearly everyone listened to the Dick Herm Report on WBYS radio (We Bore You Stiff, the older kids called it).   With the bark of an auctioneer Herm would give the regional and Chicago prices for agricultural commodities. Grandpa paid a few cents less per pound than the Peoria market. For some bigger producers it made financial sense to get more per pound by trucking their livestock to Peoria or beyond. But for others, given the cost of time and gasoline, one of several nearby receiving yards or processing plants did fine.  For most farmers livestock was only one of several products.  When I chored with my friend Jeff we would slop the hogs, feed the chickens, hay the beef cattle, weed the beans, and give the dairy cows grain to eat while we milked them. My dad's grocery stores bought dressed hogs from my grandpa's (and other's) slaughterhouse.  At each grocery store a butcher would saw the carcass into various cuts of pork and grind the sausage.  Cause and effect was knowable even by a six year-old.  The livestock were born, raised, slaughtered, packaged, sold, and eaten all within several miles of each other. I knew the farmer, processor, butcher, and buyer. The production, processing, and distribution nodes of the food system -- at least in downstate Illinois -- were thick and overlapping.  The supply chain was densely redundant, complicated and in some ways complex. Above, the Cynefin Framework Today pork production -- and most agricultural production -- is much more highly concentrated.  In 1969, according to the US Department of Agriculture, 644,882 farms raised 89,296,278 swine.  By 1992 186,627 production operations sold 109,775,439 pigs and hogs.  That's a shift of 138 head per farm to 588 per farm.  In 2002 the number of production sites had fallen by more than half to 78,895.  In 2002 over half of all swine were raised on "farms" with over 5000 head each. The geographic range of pork production has also narrowed.  Take out Northern Iowa and Eastern North Carolina and very few of us will have ham for Christmas or even a ham sandwich for lunch.  Pork processing is even more concentrated than production.   Many food products have experienced similar consolidation and concentration. Today, compared to my early days, the supply chain for food is much more streamlined, specialized, and price efficient.  In 2004 a hog producer with 1000 head spent about $40 per hundredweight.  The same year raising a hog farrow-to-finish cost the producer with fewer than 100 head almost $80 per hundredweight. (See Hogs Lead Way in Transformation)  In 1969 the retail cost of pork chops was about $1.39 per pound.  This week many stores are selling assorted pork chops at $2.49 per pound. At least one regional chain is advertising a "Big Sale" with pork chops at $1.99 per pound. Given forty-one years of inflation that is an extraordinary bargain. Economies of scale in production, processing, and distribution have contributed to price containment of pork and other foodstuffs.  This is a real benefit.  Is there a cost? I just came back from several days visiting my parents. Most of the 400 acre  family farms that I knew as a kid have been consolidated.  Except for acreage owned by the Amish and a few small organic operations, corn, soybeans and cattle are what you see again and again stretching over the horizon (and there are long horizons in central Illinois). Dad has sold his grocery stores and grandpa's slaughterhouse closed twenty years ago. When I asked the local market's meat manager (no longer a butcher) about where his meat comes from he laughed and said, "Off the truck, before that who knows."  Because the supply chain originates far away and draws on unknown sources there is an impression of complexity.   And across these attenuated supply chains there are complex characteristics: lots of filters, need for pattern recognition, and some aspects of adaptive response. But is the food system "complex" as defined by the Cynefin framework?  The crowd sourcing of many more independent producers and processors has been reduced and standardized.  Open markets have been replaced with much more predictable production contracts.  The entire system has been reengineered and squeezed to maximize every penny-per-pound.  In some ways, with fewer participants and fewer relationships the food system is actually much simpler than four or five decades ago. Toward the end of his brief video overview of the Cynefin framework David Snowden warns, "The boundary between simple and chaotic is different from the other boundaries...  If you start to believe that things are  simple -- you start to believe that they're ordered, you start to believe in your own myths, you start to believe that past success means you are invulnerable to future failure -- you effectively move to the complacent zone which is the boundary between simple and chaotic and you fall over the edge in a crisis... and recovery is very, very expensive." Have economies of scale so simplified the food system that we can now sense it on the very edge of chaos? (Editorial Note:  Last week John Comiskey encouraged me to apply Cynefin and/or Tara to a prospective problem.  He suggested a cyber threat.  I decided to focus on a network -- the food system -- that I understand better than I understand most cyber networks.  But it seems to me these issues of consolidation, centralization, simplification, and such might have analogies to the cyber domain.  For now, though, that is only a hypothesis.)

Editorial note: Propecia over the counter, Last evening John Comiskey posted the following as a comment to my Thursday post (immediately below this post).  Without receiving his permission, I am moving John's comment to today's front page.  If you have read John's prior comments you know he serves with the NYPD and is also with the Coast Guard Reserve.  John is currently deployed with the USCG to the Gulf of Mexico.  Full disclosure, John and I both serve on the faculty of the new Pace University graduate program in management for public safety and homeland security professionals.  We have met each other precisely once, at a Spring faculty meeting.

--+--

Your Grandpa sounds like a wonderful man. I imagine that he too would be overwhelmed and even frustrated by the levels of bureaucracy and particularly the federal government’s grant strategy (get the locals to do what you want by footing some or the entire bill). North Carolina NC N.C. , “All politics are local and most times federal too” might be the old “all politics are local.”

That being said, it sounds like your grandfather would have found a way. Bennet’s axiom “People are discouraged, Arkansas AR Ark. , encourage them, Køb discount propecia, ” should be a homeland security and preparedness mantra.  The obvious -- helping people -- seems within our grasp, but eludes us all too often.

Homeland security and preparedness are a Pandora's box of sorts (privacy intrusions, buy cheap propecia online, challenges to rights & privileges, Colorado CO Colo. , economic costs, and others things that are not so nice). But, we need to remind ourselves that the original Pandora's Box also offered hope, propecia over the counter.

Today, Osta propecia online, I heard a Coast Guard Commander refer to Deepwater Horizon as the Coast Guard’s Afghanistan. Propecia sale, The “long spill,” Deepwater Horizon, like the long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq require fortitude, pharmacie propecia bon marché, patience, Ordering propecia no rx, understanding, and hope. Somebody said “hope is not a plan.” Just the same I will keep on hoping and praying for the best whilst I prepare for the worst, order propecia from canada.

The emotional toll to Gulf residents, αγοράζουν online propecia, government workers, and cleanup volunteers warrants consideration and is bound to be high. Propecia over the counter, The days ahead present three overarching challenges: stopping the spill, extracting the maximum amount of oil feasible, and mitigating the damage. The current forecast of 23+ storms with a 50% chance of a significant storm make that challenge all the more challenging –or might clean most of the mess up -mother nature is most resilient, Kentucky KY Ky. .

I have come to know some of the people of NOLA and have found them to be concerned but going about their business best they can. North Dakota ND , They talk a lot of football. LSU and the Saints are dear to their hearts. Last year’s super bowl celebration has continued with the team’s preseason visit to Louisiana communities weary of oil: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=127561660

If I remain in NOLA past September, I will likely attend a game, propecia over the counter. For the record I am a Jets fan, Oklahoma OK Okla. . Football players and fans are resilient. Nevada NV Nev. , My new colleagues in NOLA poke fun at my New York accent. In turn, I enjoy their nawlins’ colloquialisms, Jotta propecia verkossa. Propecia over the counter, They seem to appreciate my reviews of their restaurants and haunts. So far Acme Oyster House, Buy cheap propecia, Tujajues, and Café du Monde top the list. Nothing like football and food to bind people, Illinois IL Ill. .

I have found that Katrina has left the people of NOLA with doubts in the efficacy of the federal government and particularly FEMA. Acheter en ligne propecia, NOLA’s celebrated relationship with the Coast Guard seems uneasy at best. I am told too little is being done too slowly, propecia over the counter. That phenomena might be a study in a relationship earned in one disaster (Katrina) only to be lost in another (DWH). Social capital is easier lost than earned, kjøpe propecia online.

The USCG is most resilient. Bestill propecia online, It is and always has been a multi-mission organization. Propecia over the counter, Today that mission is clear: ensure and facilitate the RP’s (responsible party) response – in this case BP. That mission will not make the Coast Guard popular.

From my view BP is doing all that it can and is most instances more than that, cheap propecia overnight delivery. The American people need to know that without the media hype. Delaware DE Del. , BP too is resilient. I imagine someone or some people high in the organization deliberated as to their course of action –cut and run or invest in their enterprise, propecia over the counter. BP chose the latter. I can’t and won’t speak to BP’s alleged wrongdoing because I don’t know if they were negligent or had a catastrophic industrial accident, District of Columbia DC D.C. . I know that matter is being investigated and await the final analysis. Buy propecia no rx, Recovery requires everyone to look past their factions, fights, frustrations, and everything else.

I’m rooting for the people of the Gulf and the United States of America.

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Buy propecia, Are we self-serving gluttons of short-term gratification, unable to work together to anticipate problems or seize opportunities?   Is this what 65 years of extraordinary affluence, pre-eminent power, and generous parents produce? 

Television probably contributed.  Rock music too.

Monday several of us -- here at Homeland Security Watch and otherwise -- considered whether broad-based participation, collaboration, Arizona AZ Ariz. , and deliberation are realistic for developing greater risk readiness and resilience.  Tuesday's post by Dan O'Connor can be seen as continuing the conversation. Yesterday Mark explicitly built out the theme. This was not planned.

I point to research regarding how certain community-based approaches to the management of common-pool resources produce resilience.  Arguing from analogy, Idaho ID , I have advocated a similar approach for homeland security.

Others counter we are a society and culture that bowls alone.  As Robert Putnam explained, "Over the course of the last generation or two, a variety of technological, economic and social changes have rendered obsolete the stuff of American social capital.” 

Some colleagues suggest that along with the federal budget and personal credit cards, the USA has been spending down our social capital until we are deep in debt.   What little social capital remains is hoarded into gated communities of the like-minded,  balkanized by our choice of MSNBC or FOX or micro-media, and  tribalized by NASCAR or Soccer or Call-of-Duty (you can choose Version 2 or Black Ops or the real-deal as set out by Dan and John), buy propecia.

Despite this context, För propecia online,  a few of us blithely suggest investing the attention, time, and resources necessary to get stakeholders together to participate, collaborate, köpa propecia online, and deliberate.  For example, as a lease requirement, Cheap propecia no prescription, every party awarded drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico would participate in and partially fund preparedness activities with other drillers, with state and local officials in the region, with the Coast Guard, with federal regulators, buy propecia, and with representatives of all those who share an interest in the common-pool resources of the Gulf of Mexico.  (To compile a list, start with those filing for compensation from Ken Feinberg.)

These folks must not only talk about bowling, Order propecia online legally, they must regularly bowl together, and just as regularly deliberate about how they can each and all bowl with fewer gutter-balls and many more strikes and spares. And to top it off,  they must actually work together some more to implement their deliberations, cheapest propecia prices.

Not realistic, some say.  I'm not certain they're wrong.  I'm afraid they may be right. Purchase propecia, But Tuesday I encountered a paradoxical source of hope in a piece written by David Fahrenthold and Ylan Q. Buy propecia, Mui, "Historians debate designation of  'worst environmental disaster' in the US." (Washington Post)

"In the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s, for instance, a drought was made worse by human mistakes. Farmers had plowed up grassland to take advantage of high grain prices, but when prices dropped, the fields were abandoned, order propecia no rx, with no roots to hold soil in place."  The Dust Bowl went on for a decade, left over 500, Buy propecia, 000 homeless, and permanently altered the ecology of the American southwest.

On the wall of a  dark interior hallway in my mother's childhood home was a tattered  map of the United States. Piercing the map were several dozen colored pins.  I don't remember what all the colors meant.  But the blue pins were where my Grandpa McDonald had worked with local people to build a pond, buy propecia online, a lake, or some other watershed management system. Cheap propecia online, Up and down the hallway on either side of the map and on the opposite wall were letters of thanks,  framed photos, and other mementos of hundreds of trips into the impoverished Great Plains of Depression-troubled America.  The blue pins were especially concentrated in Oklahoma, Kansas, Florida FL Fla. , Nebraska, Iowa, Ordering propecia online legally,  and the Dakotas.  But they reached from California to Puerto Rico.  In the mid-1930s, Grandpa worked for the old Soil Erosion Service of the Department of the Interior and, later, the Department of Agriculture, buy propecia.

As my Grandpa told me, his boss -- Hugh Hammond Bennett -- told him, "People are discouraged, goedkope propecia apotheek, encourage them.  Ask them what they need, then help them find what they need."  No federal grants. Buy propecia no prescription, There was not always enough budget for grandpa to stay in a hotel.  He once showed me a bedroll that he would lay out beside his government car.

Grandpa's role model was St. Paul.  "Now old Paul, he had a tougher job, αγοράσετε propecia," grandpa said. "His job was to save souls.  What does a soul look like?  But anyone can see when the land is hurt and even how it is hurt.  Everyone wants to save the land."  At least they did after encouragement from T-bone McDonald Buy propecia, .

The difference between now and then is defined mostly by our possibilities.  If grandpa had an advantage, Propecia over the counter, it was in the undeniable reality of his limitations.  If we are disadvantaged, it may be because we can do so much, so quickly.  Given our possibilities,  impatience is understandable.  We call it a sense of urgency, discount propecia.

But there are some tasks -- like ultra-deep water drilling -- that should not be undertaken too quickly.  And there are many tasks -- such as, reclaiming a man-made desert or an oil-desecrated ecological system -- that require both urgency and the passage of time. 

We all know the factions, Order propecia c.o.d., fights, and frustrations that arise from a drought of social capital.  But haven't we also seen how just a drop of trust and a small sense of shared relationship can transform drought into abundance?  One farm pond at a time, one wind-break at a time, one terrace at a time and -- over time -- the tragedy of the Dust Bowl was largely (not entirely) reclaimed, Rhode Island RI R.I. .

According to the National Security Strategy, “The ideas, Buy propecia from canada, values, energy, creativity, and resilience of our citizens are America’s greatest resource, acquistare a buon mercato propecia. We will support the development of prepared, vigilant, Minnesota MN Minn. , and engaged communities and underscore that our citizens are the heart of a resilient country. And we must tap the ingenuity outside government through strategic partnerships with the private sector, nongovernmental organizations, foundations, and community-based organizations, buy propecia. Such partnerships are critical to U.S. success at home and abroad, and we will support them through enhanced opportuni­ties for engagement, coordination, transparency, and information sharing.”

We -- and I mean you and me -- create these opportunities one household, one neighborhood, one community at a time.  Time to get out some colored pins.  What will each color mean.   What map will you choose.

For further consideration:

Soil Erosion: A National Menace (1928, large pdf)

Surviving the Dust Bowl  (PBS)

Sustainability and community resilience: The holy grail of hazards planning? by Graham A. Tobin

Leveraging public-private partnerships to improve community resilience in times of disaster (a detailed review of this restricted journal article is available from Jan Husdal)

New Paradigms for Private Sector Preparedness by John Harrald (March 2010 testimony).

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Back in May a reader's comment to Homeland Security Watch Order propecia without prescription, recommended a text written in 1999.  I finally read it over the weekend.  Here's an excerpt:

Contingency plans for large oil spills on the open sea are fantasy documents.., cheap propecia. Buy propecia without prescription, The utility of contingency plans for major oil spills is more symbolic than instrumental. Their production gives the impression that organizations, cheapest propecia online, Montana MT Mont. , especially corporations and regulatory agencies, can effectively manage the negative externalities of massive oil production, Um propecia online. Acquistare online propecia, These plans,furthermore, order propecia online, Ordering propecia overnight delivery, organize political discussions about oil disaster, tanker safety, farmacia propecia baratos, Kjøpe billig propecia, conservation, and offshore oil leasing.  To the extent they do so they shape the categories available with which to talk about corporate power, Michigan MI Mich. , Cheap propecia tablets, government neglect, and the consequences of huge oil spills.., propecia. Köpa propecia, Oil spill fantasy documents contribute to the notion that "the problem" of major oil spills comes from insufficient money, lack of determination, cheap propecia, Order propecia overnight delivery, and poor coordination.  One consequence of framing the issue this way is that some questions -- about conservation, about corporate power, comprar propecia baratos, Order propecia without prescription, and political risk -- rarely get asked outside what is defined as the environmentalist fringe.

This is from page 23, Mission Improbable: Fantasy Documents to Tame Disaster by Lee Clarke, Connecticut CT Conn. . Ordering propecia no prescription, The text is a credible critique of our -- delusionary -- tendency to confuse profound uncertainty with predictiable risk.  The critique is especially persuasive when read in combination with today's headlines, such as:

Failure of rig's last line of defense tied to myriad factors (New York Times)

BP was told of safety fault "weeks before blast" (BBC)

Markey will demand oil companies re-write spill-response plans(Bloomberg Business Week)

What Mission Improbable does not do is point us to what -- if anything -- we might do to avoid such self-defeating fantasies (other than avoid temptation to hubris).  Sometimes we must accurately critique before we can effectively create, New York NY N.Y. . Ohio OH , For more creative purposes, please check out the significant resources made available online by the Prince William Sound Citzens' Advisory Council. 

Established in the aftermath of the Exxon-Valdez disaster, comprare propecia sconto, Iowa IA , this public-private "collaboratory" looks and behaves like a whole host of resilient communities documented by Elinor Ostrom and others over the years.

There are lessons here -- whether you are concerned with natural, købe propecia online, accidental, or intentional threats -- for how we create capacity to engage what we cannot control.

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Buy diazepam online cheap, Presidents typically address the country from the Oval Office only in times of crisis. On such occasions, Wyoming WY Wyo. , the office serves as a metaphor and communicates a sense of gravitas, decisiveness and authority unique to the presidential office. President Obama's use of the office tonight for his address on the response to the Deepwater Horizon crisis was consistent with this metaphor in every respect. Sadly, comprar en línea diazepam, I believe it was the wrong approach, Buy diazepam online legally, and will do little if anything to restore confidence here or abroad that recovery is coming much less possible.

Crises differ from disasters and catastrophes not so much in terms of their scope or scale as they do in the extent to which they cause us to question either our confidence in our leaders or their competence resolving the situation. This particular tragedy involves both elements, order diazepam without prescription. Public confidence in government has rarely been lower, and even his allies have begun to openly question the capacity of this President and his administration's competence when it comes to the core functions of governing, buy diazepam online cheap.

Like past presidential addresses from the Oval Office, New York NY N.Y. , this one framed the challenges confronting the country as a battle to be won. The use of militaristic rhetoric implies an enemy exists that we can defeat if only we exhibit sufficient resolve. While many people no doubt see BP as the enemy in this instance, Om diazepam online, it should have been made clear that this catastrophe is not only about the hubris and bumbling of BP as it as about how we as a nation have managed our destructive addiction to oil. Cheap generic diazepam, Either way, a resolution to this crisis is not simply a question of technical prowess. Buy diazepam online cheap, In the one instance during his address in which he used the word resilience (and even then only in the penultimate paragraph), President Obama employed it in a manner given the context of his earlier remarks that implied it was synonymous with ingenuity. This stands in stark contrast to the National Security Strategy he released at the end of last month, Ohio OH , which used the term in a manner more consistent with robustness. Ordering diazepam online legally, For sure, conventional notions of resilience emphasize both qualities: robustness and resourcefulness. Some add a third, ordering diazepam online, redundancy and redesign, Order diazepam no prescription, but these are often understood as extensions of rather than alternatives to the other two concepts. As Phil Palin noted in his post regarding the implications of the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe on our understanding of resilience, the concept of resilience should and could mean so much more to us, Kentucky KY Ky. .

By committing himself and his administration so completely to a particular view of success -- stopping the oil and remediating the damage -- the President has so far failed to address the important part we all play in this recovery operation, buy diazepam online cheap. Having shouldered the burden for success or failure, Online diazepam, despite warning us that success would not come easy or fast, he has suggested in no small way that Gulf Coast residents (and to some extent the rest of us too) will be relieved of the burden of adapting to the new realities this catastrophe will almost certainly create.

Some time ago, diazepam farmacia a buon mercato, I suggested that recovery affects us at a material and rational level on the one hand and on an emotional and moral level at another. Ordering diazepam from canada, We often experience and interpret these dimensions of crisis through the twin prisms of time and value. The longer it takes for us to appreciate the full extent and long-term implications of a crisis, the less likely it is we will have confidence that the same leaders who got us in the mess will help us get out, Connecticut CT Conn. . Buy diazepam online cheap, The same cannot always be said for our commitment to the assumptions and ideals that create the blind spots we share with them.

Ideally, Arkansas AR Ark. , a crisis of the scope and scale presented by the Deepwater Horizon disaster will force us to question our understanding not just of the situation, but also of the nature of understanding itself. That said, buy diazepam online, understanding is not only a question of rationality, Maine ME Me. , but also of morality.

This brings us back to the question of responsibility. In an op-ed for CNN, Tennessee TN Tenn. , Julian Zelizer made the observation in respect of the way off-shore drilling was regulated and supervised before the disaster, Ordering diazepam pills, "Engineers have dominated decision-making over the scientists." The professionals who self-identify with these two tribes debate the question who belongs to each of them all the time, but it is unusual for someone else to make such a distinction especially in response to a question of policy which cannot rightly be considered the primary province of either profession.

I suppose that Zelizer intended to imply that one focuses on knowledge and the other on its application, buy diazepam online cheap. That is another way of saying one is interested in knowing and the other is focused on doing, buy cheap diazepam online. One engages in an epistemic quest, Comprar diazepam, a search for knowledge; the other is occupied with its ontological implications, with what is and what we can do with it. No matter how salient these distinctions may seem, diazepam for sale, both occupations remain firmly committed to a common world-view that holds that the path to what is true and right rests upon and is informed by the human faculty of reason. Diazepam over the counter, In this instance, the nation is left wondering, though, what's reasonable about this situation. Buy diazepam online cheap, How can we rationally reconcile ourselves with the knowledge that our appetites and our actions -- even if they were executed by others on our behalf -- led to this disaster without also accepting that it is also our responsibility to do something about it. The answer to this question does not rely on rationality. We often accept responsibility not because it is pleasing or rewarding to do so, but because the rightness and justness of such actions have the capacity to inform our intellect and our emotions, and in doing so imbues our circumstances in crises with meaning and purpose.

By reassuring us that he had the situation in hand and was sparing no effort to bring the situation to a successful conclusion on all fronts, President Obama required too little of us beyond our patience. But our understanding does not depend on patience, it depends on purpose. We will not win this so-called war if all we do is defeat ourselves, buy diazepam online cheap. We cannot think our way of of the mess we have made. Neither can we afford to leave the thinking to others, even if they are cleverer than us.

If President Obama really wants to use this crisis as an opportunity to restore our sense of national purpose and pride, he needs to challenge us -- all of us -- along with his administration. We can all make a contribution, but only if we are willing to make sacrifices. We can begin by sacrificing the contradictory assumptions and expectations that suggest government is responsible for all that ails us and all that heals us.

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The homeland security enterprise adopted the National Incident Management System Order diazepam, (NIMS) with limited scientific, policy or public analysis.

The way I heard the NIMS creation story, several members of the U.S. Forest Service -- the home agency of the planet’s preeminent incident command system (ICS) experts -- helped bring organization to New York City’s initially chaotic response to the September 11, 2001 attack. Um diazepam online, The success of their effort led directly to the federal government in 2003 mandating NIMS -- with ICS at its core.

In the early “ready, fire, aim” days of homeland security, finding any needle in a haystack was better than wasting time looking for the sharpest needle.

Federal agencies are supposed to use NIMS because a former president -- in HSPD 5 -- said so, order diazepam. States and local communities are supposed to use NIMS because otherwise they do not get homeland security money, cheap diazepam no prescription. Many emergency management, fire and other public safety professionals believe NIMS should be used because their experience says it works, and there just aren’t any better alternatives.

I am aware of only one academic study -- in a 2006 issue of the Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management -- that questions the utility of ICS and NIMS for major incident response. Diazepam pedido en línea, The paper is "A Critical Evaluation of the Incident Command System and NIMS," by Dick A. Order diazepam, Buck, Joseph E. Trainor, and Benigno E. Aguirre; all from the University of Delaware. The authors support the usefulness of ICS for a variety of incidents, cheap diazepam online without prescription, but they conclude usefulness depends on context:

Our findings indicate that ICS is a partial solution to the question of how to organize the societal response in the aftermath of disasters; the system is more or less effective depending on specific characteristics of the incident and the organizations in which it is used. It works best when those utilizing it are part of a community, when the demands being responded to are routine to them, and when social and cultural emergence is at a minimum. ICS does not create a universally applicable bureaucratic organization among responders but rather is a mechanism for inter-organizational coordination designed to impose order on certain dimensions of the chaotic organizational environments of disasters.... Our final conclusions suggest that the present-day efforts in the National Incident Management System (NIMS) to use ICS as a comprehensive principle of disaster management probably will not succeed as intended. [my emphasis]

The relevant finding for me: ICS works best when the incident is “normal” (i.e., a routine disaster -- if one can use that term) and the responders know and have worked with each other. That’s what makes me question ICS' appropriateness as an organizational model for “unique catastrophic incidents” where responders and agencies are strangers to each other, order diazepam. Buy diazepam without prescription, (I recently read a master’s degree thesis that raises similar questions about the adequacy of ICS for a Mumbai-style incident. I will write more about that study when the author approves.)

The Deepwater Horizon disaster provides a tragic opportunity to examine the uses and limits of ICS and NIMS, including the added bonus of exploring the role the private sector plays in response. Surely that malignantly evolving catastrophe will provide homeland security lessons-to-be learned at least through the next decade. But for now, we have anecdotes from the ground, diazepam prescription. Order diazepam, What follows is an exchange last week between two people who have knowledgeable perspectives about NIMS, ICS, unified command, and the private sector.

---------------------------

Person One

Having spent three weeks in [Louisiana] working with the Coast Guard [and] National Guard ..., I have some observations and opinions.

I had an opportunity to speak personally with some of the best and brightest from the USCG, BP, EPA, Where to buy cheap diazepam, NOAA and others. Although I believe that BP should be more transparent with their information, they have an understandable concern. They feared the release of raw data, including imagery, could be distorted by the media and/or misunderstood.

Take for example the undersea picture of the spewing oil, purchase diazepam. Although BP has a motive to minimize the amount of the release, there is similar motive by others to maximize the estimated release. I heard one expert on the news talking about an accepted methodology of breaking down the images into small enough bits that the actual volume of the individual bit could be calculated, order diazepam. Once this is done, it is merely necessary to freeze a frame and count the bits. Acheter diazepam bon marché, Simple math then gives you an estimated volume from a “bits vs. time” formula. The complication comes in when you try to estimate the volume of a liquid that contains gas (i.e. Order diazepam, methane). Once this plume reaches the surface, the methane dissipates into the air. I do not suggest that it is a great idea to dump a bunch of methane into the atmosphere, diazepam generic. It does however distort the volume of liquid contaminates that enter the water.

Although booms capture a lot of surface contaminate, my amateur opinion is that the heavy, subsurface tar will have a more devastating, and longer lasting impact on the environment. Cheap diazepam online cheap, As the material reaches the surface, volatiles such as benzine and gasoline evaporate and become airborne. What is left is heavier than water, and settles below the surface as a heavy, tar like substance, order diazepam. This heavy tar travels on subsurface currents, such as the loop current, and can surface some distance away from the source, and some time after its birth into the ocean.

I do not believe that the Federal Government has such a brain trust at it disposal that it could immediately make great strides past the feeble BP effort, diazepam online kaufen. The feds do not have a reputation of being the best and most efficient at solving problems.

I compliment the USCG. They are an outstanding agency with many capable leaders, and they have experience dealing with oil spills, albeit not of this magnitude. Halvalla diazepam apteekki, I will not criticize them, and I may suggest an alternative.

My experience with emergency managers, FEMA and NIMS leads me to believe that these people and systems are good at inclusiveness, building teams from people with diverse interests and backgrounds. Order diazepam, [But] I have seen this "management by committee" approach cripple response flexibility and efficiency. I would keep BP involved as an expert resource ( I am sure they have more oil well experts than the US Government), and I would involve their leaders in discussions at the higher levels, pharmacie diazepam bon marché. I would not however make them partners in a Unified Command. I would not give them a voice on resource expenditures. Their interests are potentially different from that of the Government. I would have a strategic plan that reflects the [national incident] commander's vision..., order diazepam. I would have an integrated intelligence section that can make informed projections so that leaders can make choices and develop strategy based on the best information available. Oregon OR Ore. , I would put someone in charge who has the necessary experience at leading this size and diversity of effort.

As a citizen watching the destruction of the environment, I would like to see strong leadership, clear vision, a supportable plan, and swiftexecution.

Can we agree on that?

-----------------

Person Two

While agreeing with [my colleague’s] fundamental desire for timely and effective operations, New Mexico NM N.Mex. , I have to disagree with [his] characterization of the concept of NIMS as part of the problem. This is a favorite subject of mine so pardon the diversion from the spill particulars.

I have learned from my [professional colleagues] that some officials, particularly fed and most DoD, view NIMS and its component ICS as unstructured or somehow characterized by consensus decision making. Order diazepam, In my experience nothing is further from the truth. Ordering diazepam without prescription, ICS and NIMS embrace several familiar concepts as fundamental: unity of effort, consolidated action planning, chain of command, unity of command, span of control.

Put simply: one boss, one set of goals, ordering diazepam pills, one plan. ICS essentially got those principles from the military.

My DoD [colleagues] have acknowledged that [operations in the United States] are more complicated than overseas operations in some ways. Given our pluralistic governance, ICS allows for unified command (UC); emergencies don’t respect geographic or regulatory jurisdiction. Acheter en ligne diazepam, UC has particular requirements. Members of a UC must have jurisdiction, funding to contribute and authority to speak and decide for their agency, order diazepam. Failing one of those, you’re [just] an agency representative.

UC is a course of study to itself and the product of UC is ONE set of goals (one vision if you will) carried out by one operations section and one organization. The US Forest Service does this admirably, as does the Coast Guard. The rest of the federal agencies, acquistare online diazepam, it seems, will take time.

ICS was started by a few metro cities, counties, and state and federal agencies before being chartered by Congress in the 70’s. Alaska AK , When ICS was adopted in California by the rest of the local governments in the early 80’s there was a similar sense of disbelief in its utility, [and a] resistance to change -- which still exists in some locations -- and some incidents [where ICS was applied incorrectly].

A few fires I witnessed enjoyed fully developed overhead staffs, and no one putting the fire out. Order diazepam, Many people wanted to argue tactics and dogma; ICS is a command, communication, management and control tool.

The President just visited [my jurisdiction] and NIMS was nowhere to be seen in the action planning. It has taken 30 years to achieve pretty consistent and competent use of ICS in California; I expect the national experience will be similar.

I have seen ICS work in fires, floods, vaccination clinics, Rhode Island RI R.I. , special events, earthquakes, chicken flu, and Y2K. Minnesota MN Minn. , A similar but much smaller incident than the Deepwater one was the Cantara Incident of 1991. A train carrying pesticide derailed over the American River dumping a deleterious material into the river, which flowed into a number of recreational lakes downstream through two counties. Fifty-seven involved agencies (fed, state, local and NGO) are listed on the cover sheet of the Incident Action Plan (IAP), diazepam no prescription. Three made up UC, order diazepam. The IAP had six clear incident objectives.

Deepwater response can be organized under NIMS and be effective. [My colleague’s] last paragraph's desires fit well. In the local hazmat response world, [private sector] get first shot at clean-up. Colorado CO Colo. , If the [private sector] can't do the work, government steps in and [private sector] pays the bill.

Sometimes we're too trusting or too nice.

-----------------------

Person One Again

The command post in [Louisiana] is a Unified Area Command, which means that there are incident commanders for each geographic section, which is generally by state boundary. Order diazepam, The IC makes the operational decisions. ...[The] Federal On Scene Commander (FOSC) ... should be making the strategic decisions, including resource allocation.

For a period of time, BP had to sign off on resource allocations. This started to slow the resource response by not just hours, but sometimes days. That [was unacceptable to me].

The ... strategic planning cell was made up of 50% BP reps, and they refused to allow the National Guard to be part of the strategic planning process, order diazepam. Once the “strategic plan” was briefed, [it turned out] there was no real plan, and no strategy....

The CG actually hired a team of contractors whose job it was to insure that ICS was followed, and people knew their job as defined by ICS. Clearly, they executed ICS by the book. So, if ICS did not work as well as it should, it was not due to a failure to follow doctrine. Command decision took a long time because of a need to reach a consensus among the command group. This is the same thing I saw in Katrina....

Order diazepam, I wish the [command structure made better use of] strategic planners and intelligence analysts, but BP didn't want them. [Asking] key questions about strategy did not nudge the [structure] towards a strategic plan.

But they did ICS like masters.

-----------------------

“Ready. Fire. Aim.” is not a bad way to respond to a situation that requires immediate action. Deliberation is important. But so is doing something, order diazepam.

There comes a time however for aiming.

ICS has proven its value countless times. It comes as close to doctrine as anything does in homeland security.

But is there any science to support the claim it is the best way to organize a response to every nationally significant incident.

When is ICS -- and its NIMS encasement -- the wrong way to go.

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Order soma, If Deep Horizon happened on CSI, NCIS or any other related puzzle show, we would know by now precisely how many barrels or gallons or whatever measure you want of oil are flooding from the bottom of the Gulf.

But Deep Horizon is not happening on TV, soma online kopen, Rhode Island RI R.I. , the Internet, Twitter or Facebook.  It is happening within 615, Indiana IN Ind. , Comprar soma, 000 square miles of a sea governed by discomforting laws of physical reality.

Here is slightly more than 2 minutes of candor from President Obama's science advisor, Georgia GA Ga. . Maine ME Me. , (Thanks, Arnold)

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