Homeland Security Watch

News and analysis of critical issues in homeland security

October 17, 2014

Friday Free Forum

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Philip J. Palin on October 17, 2014

On this day in 1091 an estimated F4 tornado strikes London, England. Two are killed. London bridge is destroyed.

On this day in 1989 the 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake strikes the Bay area killing over fifty and causing extensive damage.

On this day in 1966 twelve FDNY firefighters are killed while responding to a fire at 7 East 22nd Street.

On this day in 2012 Quazi Mohammad Rezwanul Ahsan Nafis is arrested for attempting to detonate a vehicle bomb at the New York Federal Reserve office.  He is captured as part of a law enforcement “sting” operation.

What’s on your mind related to homeland security?

October 14, 2014

A funny thing happened on the way out of Fargo, through the American Terrordome, and into the 2014 Playoffs

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Christopher Bellavita on October 14, 2014

Flying News

— Brian Schmidt won the 2011 Nobel Physics Prize for his co-discovery of dark energy. He went to Fargo, North Dakota to show the prize – a half pound medal, made out of gold – to his grandmother.

As he was leaving Fargo, with the medal in his laptop bag, he had an encounter with airport security:

[As the bag] went through the X-ray machine. I could see [security agents] were puzzled. [The medal is] made of gold, so it absorbs all the X-rays—it’s completely black. And they had never seen anything completely black.
“They’re like, ‘Sir, there’s something in your bag.’
I said, ‘Yes, I think it’s this box.’
They said, ‘What’s in the box?’
I said, ‘a large gold medal,’ as one does.
So they opened it up and they said, ‘What’s it made out of?’
I said, ‘gold.’
And they’re like, ‘Uhhhh. Who gave this to you?’
‘The King of Sweden.’
‘Why did he give this to you?’
‘Because I helped discover the expansion rate of the universe was accelerating.’
At which point, they were beginning to lose their sense of humor. I explained to them it was a Nobel Prize, and their main question was, ‘Why were you in Fargo?’”

— In other flying news, U.S. District Judge Anna Brown of Portland, Oregon ruled that

…people placed on the [No Fly] list have a constitutionally protected interest in traveling by air, and the right to due process when its denied.

Seven American citizens were part of an ACLU lawsuit. They wanted to be taken off the No Fly list or told why their names were on it. The government decided to take them off the list.  According to news reports, this was “the first time the United States has ever informed someone whether they are or are not excluded” from the list.  “This is huge in terms of the secrecy regime, and a regime of unconstitutional unfairness crumbling,” said an ACLU lawyer.

— In still more news about flying rights, the Association of Flight Attendants wants the FAA to stop people from using portable electronic devices during take off and landing.  Again. Apparently people are ignoring the how to use a seat belt and oxygen mask speeches. Besides, devices could turn into projectiles.

— Tom McHale, at mygunculture.com, complains that TSA is forcing gun owners to violate federal laws (Title 49: Transportation, Parts 1540 and 1544) when they make travelers flying with firearms surrender gun case keys to security inspectors.

— In a related story, TSA continued its unbroken streak and found 50 more firearms in carry on bags last week.

Privacy News

— Edward Snowden told a New Yorker crowd that people who argue “if you have nothing to hide you shouldn’t mind a little government intrusion every now and then” have it backward:

You’re inverting the model of responsibility for how rights work… When you say, ‘I have nothing to hide,’ you’re saying, ‘I don’t care about this right.’ You’re saying, ‘I don’t have this right, because I’ve got to the point where I have to justify it.’ The way rights work is, the government has to justify its intrusion into your rights.”

— Robert Turner - writing in the August/September issue of (the consistently informative) Homeland Security Today Magazine – believes “Snowden is a pathetic, narcissistic, high-school dropout… [who] may very well [be] the most injurious traitor in American history.” Turner also writes that he does not see how NSA is violating the Constitution. The NSA is not “spying” [sic] on hundreds of millions of Americans. It is collecting information like telephone records so a computer [sic] can scan through vast amounts of data….”

— Glenn Greenwald gives a 20 minute TED talk presenting his reasons why privacy matters.  Most of the argument seems to be a synthesis of chapter 4 in his book No Place to Hide.

Fear News

— Tom Englehardt continues his quest to convince people we’ve moved way beyond Stupid with the fear business.  His latest example is the ISIS hysteria: Inside the American Terrordome.  After giving a few examples of the current soundtrack of terrorism fear, he writes:

You can repeat until you’re blue in the face that the dangers of scattered terror outfits are vanishingly small in the “homeland,” when compared to almost any other danger in American life.  It won’t matter, not once the terror-mongers go to work….

Let’s be honest.  Post-9/11, when it comes to our own safety (and so where our tax dollars go), we’ve become as mad as loons.  Worse yet, the panic, fear, and hysteria over the dangers of terrorism may be the only thing left that ties us as a citizenry to a world in which so many acts of a destructive nature are being carried out in our name….

Terror-phobia, after all, leaves you feeling helpless and in need of protection. The only reasonable response to it is support for whatever actions your government takes to keep you “safe.” Amid the waves of fear and continual headlines about terror plots, we, the people, have now largely been relegated to the role of so many frightened spectators when it comes to our government and its actions. Welcome to the Terrordome.

 Data News

— Speaking of things to be afraid of, the 2013 National Health Security Preparedness Index is available at this link. Called “a new way to measure and advance our nation’s preparedness,” the Index charts the health preparedness of the states.  Says the website, “The NHSPI™ applies the National Health Security Strategy definition of national health security: the state in which the Nation and its people are prepared for, protected from, and resilient in the face of health threats or incidents with potentially negative health consequences.”  I have no clue why the Index is trade marked

Climate News

— A British company, Shoothill, has an online tool called GuageMap that can (eventually) send messages to interested parties when one of the 2,400 rivers in England and Wales is either threatening to flood or is becoming dangerously low.

— The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society issued a report titled ”Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective.” One conclusion: “Climate change influenced several of the world’s most extreme weather events of 2013, including heat waves in Australia, Europe, China, Japan and Korea.”  The report is available at this link.  Said one government research meteorologist (in a USA Today story about the report), “It’s a granted that climate change is influencing all manner of weather….” This report looks not if climate change influenced weather, but how it did – trying to quantify the influence….”

— Speaking of the weather, NASA confirmed there is a “vast methane cloud over the southwestern U.S.” “[The] 2,500-square mile methane cloud over the region where Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah meet traps more heat in a year than all the annual carbon dioxide emissions of Sweden,” the Christian Science Monitor reports. Scientists first noticed the methane data several years ago but ignored it because the readings were so extreme.

Homeland Security Baseball News

– The Kansas City Star reports:

It had been 29 years since the Kansas City Royals made it to the postseason and no one in town wanted to miss the end of what turned out to be their thrilling 9-8 victory over the Oakland Athletics.

No one – not even the police department.

The Kansas City Police took to Twitter with a message for folks across the city, and it was hard to believe that anybody disobeyed the request:

“We really need everyone to not commit crimes and drive safely right now. We’d like to hear the Royals clinch.”

October 12, 2014

Evil as complexity denied

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Philip J. Palin on October 12, 2014

Over the last few weeks I have tried to listen as others have claimed evil as a justification for a variety of homeland security related missions.  I have appreciated your indulgence — and in some cases, important contributions — to this process.  Following are concluding personal reflections on this exploration.


In the myths of many cultures and the precepts of several religions and across a range of philosophical systems the first step from good to bad begins with failing to listen.

The protagonist is so distracted or deluded or self-consumed that truth — while knowable or even well-known — is neglected or rejected in favor of a rendering that better suits the hero’s (or emerging villain’s) internal narrative, unrestrained by external evidence.

I was recently standing in line for a train.  So was a young mother (or aunt or such) with a three or four-year-old boy, who she had harnessed to a seven or eight foot tether.  He was entertaining himself while she was on her cell-phone.  I don’t know how long they had been there when I arrived.  For the first ten minutes all was fine.  Then he increasingly sought her attention.  She continued on the phone.  He increased his attention-seeking behavior. She interrupted her conversation to sharply admonish. This became an rapidly escalating cycle to the dismay of everyone nearby.

While observing this scene unfold, I happened to read about the President calling the Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee to ask for additional funds to be included in the Continuing Resolution to support anti-ISIL training of “moderate” Syrian opposition forces.  It was apparently the first time President Obama had made such a call.  Chairman Rogers seemed both pleased and more than a bit annoyed. The very first call since Rogers was elected Chairman in 2011?

This was in early September, at the time I was working with an on-again off-again client who was not acknowledging my emails or returning my phone calls.  When he did finally schedule a meeting, I was prepared to resign… and probably in a bit of a huff.  Similar to the four-year-old, I was feeling neglected.

The client began our meeting by describing a problem that was clearly commanding his attention.  The same issue had been the topic of my unread emails. But I listened and as I listened I better understood his angle on reality and adjusted accordingly. After listening to him I was much better prepared to speak in a way that would be heard.  And he was  ready to listen.  The problem has since been mostly solved.  We continue in relationship. (I even allowed him to preview this post.)

I was about to end the relationship because I felt he was not listening.  My ego was bruised. My time was wasted.  He was being an ignorant, arrogant jerk, and I was tempted to respond in kind. The relationship was renewed by an opportunity for me to listen and then reflect back what I heard.  As helpful to the client as anything else was the ability to hear his own situation reported back to him.

Our English word relationship is derived from a Latin construct meaning to carry back or bring back.  We bring back our story and relate it to others.  In this way a relationship can be strengthened. But telling depends on being heard.  If we offer our story and are not heard — neglected or rejected — we are inclined to deny being in relationship with those who are dismissively deaf.

As noted in my post last Thursday, I mostly neglected early reports of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. I have given very little attention to the extraordinary story of corruption, criminality, and violence emerging from several Central American states.  Yesterday I counted twelve homeless in a brisk walk of three blocks. They were wanting to talk. I noticed but did not listen.

There is a tendency not to notice until a connection to our self-interest is made explicit: until Ebola is in Dallas, until an American is beheaded, until children appear on our doorstep.  And even then we can be quite adept at not seeing — much less hearing — what is immediately before us.

This is, I suggest, how evil emerges: in narrow self-interest, in neglect of others, in rejected relationships, and with these preconditions it is easy to slip toward anger, abuse, and violence.

This is hardly a new insight. But disciplined practice of an alternative ethic is challenging.  Even between individuals, but especially on the macro-scale.  It is one thing for parent and child or Executive and Legislator or counsel and client to learn to listen.  It is a different category of action to “hear” the voices of victims hundreds and even thousands of miles distant.

Yet more than ever before we are being told their stories.  They know we have been told.  They can also discern our response or non-response.  One of the most damning discoveries I made during this exploration was a Google-spawned link to a post from February 2012 that I had entirely forgotten.  I heard. But did very little. Nothing at all effective.

So… for reasons set out previously and above I perceive that evil is a meaningful concept, worth much more than the self-indulgent rhetorical references that are too often applied.  Evil is a consequence of failing to honor the reality of our neighbor.  It is stubborn unwillingness to listen. It is denial of reality. It is angry self-assertion when our delusions are threatened.

I expect this deeply dysfunctional behavior to continue.  Evil will not be prevented.  But it can be mitigated and we can better prepare ourselves to more effectively respond to the emergence of evil and recover from it.  It is the privilege of homeland security professionals to focus on these opportunities.

Emerging from this series of blogs, my contribution will include giving more time and attention to listening to family, friends, clients, students, colleagues, you, and others with whom I am in obvious relationship.  Yesterday I sent a sizable gift to an organization that listens and works with others with whom I have a less obvious relationship.  I have committed myself to regularly engaging with this organization. I’m still not sure what to do as I encounter the homeless (and many other voices I tend to exclude), but I will experiment with options.

Complex problems — such as evil — are seldom solved. But they are sometimes more or less resolved through spontaneously self-organizing individual behavior. The good and bad news is that we are in relationship and the actions and inaction of each of us have an influence… in ways we cannot always predict.

October 10, 2014

Friday Free Forum

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Philip J. Palin on October 10, 2014

On and about this date in 1780 the “Great Hurricane” kills more than 20,000 in the Caribbean.

October 10 was the third day of the Great Chicago Fire of 1871.

On this date in 2009 terrorist militants attacked and held hostages at the Pakistani army General Headquarters in Rawalpindi.

What’s on your mind related to homeland security?

October 7, 2014

On plastic volcano drones, iPhones, Guantanamo medical care videotapes, Ebola and other outbreaks

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Christopher Bellavita on October 7, 2014


…Wired treats viewers to a minute and a half closeup video of lava eruptions in the Bardabunga volcanic system in Iceland. The video was taken by a quadcopter drone. (The music was added – I hope.)


… Eighteen months ago, blueprints for creating a gun with a 3D printer were downloaded over 100,000 times in two days.  Last month, Wired wrote about researchers at the University of Virginia who used a 3D printer to make a drone for the Department of Defense. [video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwRD7UBGecg] The drone can carry a 1.5 pound payload. It can be printed in a day for around $2,500. It can fly 40 miles and hour for 45 minutes; an earlier version of the plane reached speeds over 100 miles per hour. “3-D printing is at the phase where personal computers were in the 1980s,” the project director said “The technology is almost unbounded.”

… Speaking of guns and drones, On The Homefront notes an FBI report “Study of Active Shooter Incidents in the United States Between 2000 and 2013″ [that] shows an annual increase in active shooter threat. In the first 7 years of the study, an average of 6.4 incidents occurred annually and in the following 7 years that number jumped to 16.4.  The report is available here: http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2014/september/fbi-releases-study-on-active-shooter-incidents/pdfs/a-study-of-active-shooter-incidents-in-the-u.s.-between-2000-and-2013.  I did not see anything in the report about shooters using drones.

… Schneier On Security  dismisses law enforcement officials’ concerns that Apple’s new iPhone encryption will open a carnival for kidnappers, sexual predators, terrorists and worse. Schneier write “…You can’t build a backdoor that only the good guys can walk through…. You’re either vulnerable to eavesdropping by any of them, or you’re secure from eavesdropping from all of them. Strong encryption protects us from a panoply of threats. It protects us from hackers and criminals. It protects our businesses from competitors and foreign spies. It protects people in totalitarian governments from arrest and detention. This isn’t just me talking: The FBI also recommends you encrypt your data for security.”   The New York Times has one of their “Room for Debate” debates about Apple’s encryption move at this link http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/09/30/apple-vs-the-law (subscription might be required).

The Security Law Brief reports without comment that a federal judge ordered the US government to release videotapes [is the government still using videotapes?] of a Guantanamo Bay prisoner being force-fed.  An attorney for the prisoner said “we are very gratified by this decision, which will enable the American people to see with their own eyes the sorts of abuses that are being heaped on these peacefully hunger-striking detainees…. Once the truth is fully brought to light, we believe these terrible practices will come to an end….”  A former commander at Guantanamo told the court “even though the forced cell extraction videos are lawful, humane and appropriate, they ‘are particularly susceptible to use as propaganda and to incite a public reaction because of their depiction of forcible … guard interaction with detainees.’ The videos that also contain footage of forced-feedings could be used ‘to foment anti-American sentiment and inflame Muslim sensitivities as it depicts … personnel providing medical care to a detainee while he is restrained…’.”

… Speaking of medical care, Recovery Diva links readers to a U.S. National Library of Medicine cite providing Information Resources for the 2014 Ebola Outbreak.

… Dr. Will Pilkington’s Medium Post about Ebola  also reminds readers how the New York Times’ Brian McFadden sees outbreaks in America.

outbreaks in america

October 3, 2014

Friday Free Forum

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Philip J. Palin on October 3, 2014

On this date in 1974 an 8.1 earthquake hit Peru, including metropolitan Lima, killing over seventy, injuring more than 2000, and leaving tens-of-thousand homeless.

On this date in 2013 a trawler carrying African migrants caught fire off Lampedusa (Italy).  Over 360 died.

On this date in 1993 eighteen Marines and over 1000 Somalians are killed during a US effort to capture or kill insurgent forces in Mogadishu.

What’s on your mind related to homeland security?

September 30, 2014

The one percent doctrine and a 45 percent unemployment rate

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Christopher Bellavita on September 30, 2014

The unemployment rate during the great depression was 25%.

If we knew, today, that within 20 years there was a chance the US unemployment rate could be 45%, would we do anything about it?

The One Percent Doctrine – invented by Dick Cheney – asserted that

If there’s a 1% chance that Pakistani scientists are helping al-Qaeda build or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response. It’s not about our analysis … It’s about our response.

It’s not about the analysis.  It’s about the response.

What if there were a one percent chance of a 45% unemployment rate by 2034? Or a 40% rate? Or 25% unemployment?  Is our policy system capable of responding – today – to a threat like this?

Or would it be treated, like climate change, as the inverse of Cheney’s One Percent Doctrine: If there’s a 1% chance the threat won’t materialize, ignore it.  Maybe it will go away.

Or maybe it will generate homeland security problems — and opportunities — for the next decade.

It’s not about the analysis.  It’s about the response.

C.P.G. Grey, in a video seen by over 2.5 million people, describes a nation where automation takes over the jobs robots can do more effectively than humans can.  The video is not about the future. It is about what’s happening now.

[It’s] easy to be cynical of the endless, and idiotic, predictions of futures that never are. So that’s why it’s important to emphasize again this stuff isn’t science fiction. The robots are here right now. There is a terrifying amount of working automation in labs and wearhouses that is proof of concept.

We have been through economic revolutions before, but the robot revolution is different.

Horses aren’t unemployed now because they got lazy as a species, they’re unemployable. There’s little work a horse can do that do that pays for its housing and hay.

And many bright, perfectly capable humans will find themselves the new horse: unemployable through no fault of their own.

But if you still think new jobs will save us: here is one final point to consider. The US census in 1776 tracked only a few kinds of jobs. Now there are hundreds of kinds of jobs, but the new ones are not a significant part of the labor force.

Here’s the list of jobs ranked by the number of people that perform them – it’s a sobering list with the transportation industry at the top.

humans need not apply occupations


Going down the list all this work existed in some form a hundred years ago and almost all of them are targets for automation. Only when we get to number 33 [computer programmers] on the list is there finally something new.

Don’t think that every barista and white collar worker need lose their job before things are a problem. The unemployment rate during the great depression was 25%.

This list … is 45% of the workforce. Just what we’ve talked about [in this video], the stuff that already works, can push us over that number pretty soon. And given that even our modern technological wonderland new kinds of work are not a significant portion of the economy, this is a big problem.

This video isn’t about how automation is bad — rather that automation is inevitable. It’s a tool to produce abundance for little effort. We need to start thinking now about what to do when large sections of the population are unemployable — through no fault of their own. What to do in a future where, for most jobs, humans need not apply.”

Here’s the video.  It takes 15 minutes to watch.  The analysis takes longer.

It’s not about the analysis.  It’s about the response.


September 26, 2014

Friday Free Forum

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Philip J. Palin on September 26, 2014

On this date in 1959 the strongest typhoon to ever hit Japan comes ashore killing more than 4500 and leaving over 1.6 million homeless.

On this date in 2002 a ferry capsizes off Gambia killing more than 1000.

On this date in 1980 a suspected neo-Nazi bomb attack on Oktoberfest celebrations in Munich kills 13 and injures over 200.

What’s on your mind related to homeland security?


September 24, 2014

AmeriCorps: “When did you serve?”

Filed under: General Homeland Security,Preparedness and Response,State and Local HLS — by Arnold Bogis on September 24, 2014

This past weekend as I sat on the T (that’s shorthand for the subway in Boston) three young ladies sporting City Year jackets took seats across from me. From the snippets of conversation I could hear it was easy to tell they were excited about some ceremony they took part in earlier that day.

All of a sudden a voice was raised from the end of the subway car, “Congratulations girls.  How big was your class?” A little surprised by the question, one of them slowly answered “270.”  Picking up on the situation rather quickly, another of the City Year participants asked the woman who questioned them, “when did you serve?”

That struck me. Throughout my life, and especially since 9/11, that particular question has always been wrapped up with military service.  Not to take anything from those who serve in that capacity, but I was moved to consider that perhaps AmeriCorps/City Year participants deserve some of that same respect. These young people are serving our country in their communities, strengthening our collective resilience everyday from the ground up.

So don’t stop saying thanks or buying a round for the men and women who serve(d) in the armed forces.  Perhaps just consider doing the same for AmeriCorps members too.

Some background on AmeriCorps:

AmeriCorps engages more than 75,000 Americans in intensive service each year at nonprofits, schools, public agencies, and community and faith-based groups across the country.

Since the program’s founding in 1994, more than 900,000 AmeriCorps members have contributed more than 1.2 billion hours in service across America while tackling pressing problems and mobilizing millions of volunteers for the organizations they serve.

AmeriCorps Programs

AmeriCorps programs do more than move communities forward; they serve their members by creating jobs and providing pathways to opportunity for young people entering the workforce. AmeriCorps places thousands of young adults into intensive service positions where they learn valuable work skills, earn money for education, and develop an appreciation for citizenship.

This is the broadest network of AmeriCorps programs. These groups recruit, train, and place AmeriCorps members to meet critical community needs in education, public safety, health, and the environment.
VISTA provides full-time members to nonprofit, faith-based and other community organizations, and public agencies to create and expand programs that bring low-income individuals and communities out of poverty.
AmeriCorps NCCC is a full-time, team-based, residential program for men and women ages 18-24. Its mission is to strengthen communities and develop leaders through direct, team-based national and community service.

A little bit of information on City Year:

At City Year, we’re working to bridge the gap in high-poverty communities between the support the students in the communities actually need, and what their schools are designed to provide. In doing so, our model is designed to support students as they progress from elementary through high school in order to continue to build the nation’s urban graduation pipeline.

Our progress can be attributed to a unique, holistic approach, which we call Whole School Whole Child. It’s based around a group of carefully selected, highly trained young adults—our corps members—who provide individualized support to at-risk students, while also establishing an overall positive learning environment in the schools throughout America that need us the most. It’s their dedication and hard work that’s helping students reach their full potential, while also having a positive effect on the community as a whole.

If you haven’t had enough yet, I’ve embedded a couple of videos below.  Former Presidents Clinton and Bush taped videos in celebrations of the program’s 20th anniversary this year, and President Obama spoke at this year’s swearing in ceremony in Washington, DC.







September 23, 2014

Six master’s degree theses

Filed under: Education,General Homeland Security — by Christopher Bellavita on September 23, 2014

Here are the titles – and abstracts – of six master’s degree theses recently completed at the Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Homeland Defense and Security.  The theses will be publicly available in 4 to 6 weeks.  If you’re interested in seeing one or more of them, please email me (my first and last name [at] gmail.com) and I’ll put you in touch with the author.

Farewell To Arms: A Plan For Evaluating The 2001 Authorization For Use Of Military Force And Its Alternatives

On September 14, 2001, Congress passed the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF). Over the past 13 years, the AUMF has served as the primary legal foundation for the use of force against terrorist organizations and other counterterrorist operations. Since its passage, threats facing the United States have evolved and new groups have emerged. Yet, Congress has failed to reexamine the statute. This thesis examines whether the AUMF serves as the proper foundation for addressing current terrorist threats or whether an alternative legal tool is more appropriate. … [The] thesis … [analyzes] the evolution of terrorist threats, constitutional concerns, the consequences of altering the legal structure upon which national counterterrorism strategies rely, international legality, and precedent. Ultimately, [the] thesis recommends that Congress sunset the AUMF and implement a tailored approach to force authorization – one that balances constitutional protections and security, while providing a foundation for crafting future force authorizations.


Now Is The Time For CVE-2. Updating And Implementing A Revised U.S. National Strategy To Counter Violent Extremism

The United States (U.S.) national strategy countering violent extremism (CVE) has yet to be updated and currently does not provide the necessary national framework to best combat self-radicalization and violent extremism (VE) in the United States. … “What are the necessary and effective components of the national U.S. CVE strategy that best prevent self-radicalization and VE in the United States?” This research examined the concepts and strategies surrounding extremism and self-radicalization in the U.S., the United Kingdom … and Australia. … One .. finding was the identification of overarching elements that, if implemented, would increase the effectiveness and applicability of the U.S. CVE strategy. These elements include: 1) identifying the federal agency in charge of administering the U.S. CVE strategy, 2) developing a more robust and actionable national CVE framework, 3) refocusing the federal government on support and not local engagement of CVE, 4) requiring all CVE related terms be defined in every document, and 5) requiring regular evaluations and updates of the U.S. CVE strategy. ….


Opaque Communities: A Framework For Assessing Potential Homeland Security Threats From Voids On The Map

Opaque communities are groups of two or more families or cohabitation partnerships that are inaccessible to non-members, affiliates, or associates either through explicit or implied restriction of member interaction outside of the group. [These communities] confound homeland security situational awareness and integration efforts, generating … threat perceptions that often escalate into governmental interventions and violent confrontations. Opaque groups’ disinclination to interact with the surrounding public stymies governmental situational awareness capabilities necessary for homeland security functions, prompting stakeholders to embrace a default tendency to perceive threat streams emanating from such groups and employ a respective confrontational posture. Concurrently, authorities have repeatedly attributed member’s individual crimes and discreet instances of illicit behavior to the entire community, creating self-imposed barriers to viable alternative investigative and enforcement options. Governmental failures to communicate with and effectively address past incidents involving opaque communities have led to tactical response disasters. Future inabilities to foster contact with such groups could present grave, unforeseen challenges to homeland security and surrounding community resiliency efforts. This thesis explores whether governmental entities [should] adopt a common set of operational assumptions regarding threats emanating from opaque communities and, if so, whether alternative interactional frameworks for integrating such communities into homeland security efforts are available.


Should We Stay Or Should We Go Now?—The Physical, Economic, Geopolitical, Social And Psychological Factors Of Recovery From Catastrophic Disaster

“Should we continue to build there?” is a question asked after other past disasters; it is especially more poignant as local, state and federal governments deal with pre-disaster mitigation funding and post-disaster emergency management funding issues. The goal of this research [was] to develop a way of answering that question through a better understanding of the social, economic, and cultural problems, and opportunities of rebuilding. As a result, shortcomings in the assumptions of existing response and recovery plans can be identified, and current community planning can consider future catastrophic events. Through pre-identification of physical, social, and political limitations other communities have faced, pro-active land use, response and recovery planning decisions could be implemented that increase the chance that communities can successfully emerge from disaster. This study investigates examples of past catastrophic disasters and the positive and negative experiences as those communities struggled to return to normalcy. The end result of the research is an assessment that identifies the economic, geopolitical, and social factors of recovery following a catastrophic disaster. ….

Immigration Adjudication Reform: The Case For Automation

A bill that has passed the United States Senate, S. 744, proposes a “Lawful Prospective Immigrant” (LPI) status and a “path to Citizenship” for an estimated 11-12 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is the Agency that would be responsible for processing applications for LPI status or other immigration benefits authorized by immigration reform legislation or administrative relief programs introduced by the White House. Current Agency receipts of applications for immigration benefits range between 6 and 7 million per year. Depending on the eligibility criteria for new immigration benefits, Agency receipts could triple. The operational impact of these legislative or executive actions on USCIS could bear significant national security risks. This study evaluates whether the implementation of automated tools would mitigate external operational impacts on USCIS. Two existing automated systems are studied. The Secure Flight system, operated by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), and the Automated Continuous Evaluation System (ACES) as utilized in the Joint Reform Effort (JRE) were selected for their complexity, maturity, and similarity to immigration adjudications. This analysis demonstrates that automated tools can improve the quality of immigration adjudications by supporting a comprehensive assessment, including accuracy, timeliness, completeness and validity. Further, automation would improve the Agency’s operational responsiveness when external factors such as policy changes affect workloads. These factors thereby improve national security by supporting the Agency’s mission to uphold the integrity of the immigration system and to prevent and intercept illicit actors from entering or remaining in the United States.


Eyes Of The Storm: Can Fusion Centers Play A Crucial Role During The Response Phase Of Natural Disasters Through Collaborative Relationships With Emergency Operations Centers

Through the maturation of the national network of fusion centers, processes, and capabilities originally designed to detect and thwart terrorist attacks are now applied to disaster responses. The fusion process, which involves the synthesis and analysis of streams of data, can create incident specific intelligence. The sharing of this information can enhance the operating picture that is critical to key decision makers and the discipline of emergency management. This thesis examined three case studies of fusion center disaster responses through a collaborative-based analytical framework. The resulting analysis of the case studies identified the crucial role played by fusion centers in responding to disaster events in a collaborative effort with emergency operations centers. This thesis concludes that fusion centers offer the greatest impact through enabling information sharing throughout the response phase. The specific benefits of the sharing of information directly influence executive briefings and the deployment of resources. This thesis also modeled a collaborative response. The research determined that the depth and breadth of these relationships involving cooperative responses must be proportionate to the incident and include a level of redundancy. Through a system design model, over connectivity through efficiency was shown to increase the likelihood of fracturing cooperative relationships.



September 21, 2014

Washington Post piece examines DHS employee turnover

Filed under: DHS News,General Homeland Security — by Christian Beckner on September 21, 2014

The Washington Post has released a new story this evening looking in-depth at the issue of DHS turnover.    It’s a must read for regular readers of this blog and for former and current employees of DHS.   I’ve quickly typed out and posted some initial reactions to the piece at the new blog that we’ve started at the GWU Homeland Security Policy Institute; you can find my comments on it here.

September 19, 2014

Friday Free Forum

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Philip J. Palin on September 19, 2014

On this date in 1985 a strong earthquake kills about 400 in Mexico City.

On this date in 2010 the Macondo Well, source of the Deepwater Horizon spill, was sealed.

On this date in 1676 Jamestown, the capital of the Virginia colony, is burned to the ground by insurgents led by Nathaniel Bacon.

What’s on your mind related to homeland security?


September 12, 2014

Friday Free Forum

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Philip J. Palin on September 12, 2014

On this date in 1988 Hurricane Gilbert came ashore on Jamaica with a 19 foot storm surge and over thirty-inches of rain.  At least 49 were killed.  Damages were in the billions of dollars.

On this date in 2008 a freight train and a commuter train collided head-on in the Chatworth section of Los Angeles.  Twenty-five were killed and over 100 injured.

On this date in 2001 President George W. Bush briefly — and in part –addressed the American people:

The deliberate and deadly attacks, which were carried out yesterday against our country, were more than acts of terror. They were acts of war.

This will require our country to unite in steadfast determination and resolve. Freedom and democracy are under attack. The American people need to know we’re facing a different enemy than we have ever faced.

This enemy hides in shadows and has no regard for human life. This is an enemy who preys on innocent and unsuspecting people, then runs for cover, but it won’t be able to run for cover forever. This is an enemy that tries to hide, but it won’t be able to hide forever. This is an enemy that thinks its harbors are safe, but they won’t be safe forever. This enemy attacked not just our people but all freedom-loving people everywhere in the world.

The United States of America will use all our resources to conquer this enemy. We will rally the world. We will be patient. We’ll be focused, and we will be steadfast in our determination. This battle will take time and resolve, but make no mistake about it, we will win… This will be a monumental struggle of good versus evil, but good will prevail. 

What’s on your mind related to homeland security?

September 5, 2014

Friday Free Forum

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Philip J. Palin on September 5, 2014

On this day in 1996 Hurricane Fran comes ashore killing 27 and causing over $3 billion in damages.

On this day in 1666 the Great Fire of London is brought to a close.  Over 10,000 buildings were destroyed.  Fewer than ten people are thought to have died.

On this day in 1972 the Black September terrorist group attacks the Munich Olympics taking hostage Israeli athletes and coaches.  Eleven of the hostages, one German police officer, and five members of Black September would eventually be killed.

What’s on your mind related to homeland security?

September 3, 2014

DC Event: “Lessons in Resiliency from the Civilian Front in Israel: Operation Protective Edge”

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Arnold Bogis on September 3, 2014

Just a heads up. If you are in the DC area, this Friday, September 5, the George Washington University’s Homeland Security Policy Institute is hosting an event on Israeli lessons for resilience:

Featuring Meir Elran of the Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv, who will discuss the successful resilience demonstrated by the Israeli civilian front during Operation Protective Edge. Elran will discuss the factors which contributed to this success and how they are applicability to future threats including active and passive defense, the performance of the IDF Home Front Command and local government as well as public reactions and conduct during emergencies.

If interested, you can RSVP here: http://events.r20.constantcontact.com/register/event?oeidk=a07e9qapd2m6c713350&llr=mysjo9cab

I’d like to expect the best, but I fear that ultimately the Boston Marathon bombing response will come up.  Through the Israeli lens, closing down the city in an attempt to apprehend the suspects was the wrong thing to do. Yet the difference in experience is rarely brought up in terms of lessons learned.

The Israeli experience included a campaign of terrorist attacks on a temporal scale the U.S. hasn’t seen.  Combined with a small geographic area the effort to minimize the impact on the community in Israel took a very problem-specific approach.  However, that does not mean that it will or should work in the U.S.  Conditions are different.  Social constructs and relations with government at all levels is different.  What appears to be foolish choices by U.S. authorities in the minds of Israeli officials can actually be quite efficient and appropriate to the American context.

That is long way around to saying that at this particular event if the idea that Bostonians are less resilient for the actions of one particular Friday then the speaker in question HAS NO IDEA OF WHAT HE HIS TALKING ABOUT.

And I stand by that statement.  Friends in Boston kept living their lives during that period and in fact look upon that Friday as an event that brought the community even closer together.

Boston is stronger due to the choices made during that eventful week. I hope voices forged in a different fire do not influence what should be perceived as a victory here at home.

September 2, 2014

On climate change, TSA medications, bitcoin, hackers, social media, cell phones and the future

Filed under: General Homeland Security — by Christopher Bellavita on September 2, 2014

Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (interesting name) tries to bring rationality and evidence into a senate climate change debate this summer by using data to counter another senator’s alternative reality. But to no avail. The Senate did not take a position on the question of whether climate change threatens the nation.

Is TSA confiscating medications? The TSA News blog (which points out that it is not affiliated with TSA) describes confusion about how nitroglycerin pills and other medication is treated by screeners.

Big Think  goes against the mainstream bitcoin current and offers one man’s reasons why bit coin may be the best form of money we have ever seen.

Security Watch unscientifically surveyed some hackers trying to learn why they did what they did. Few of them hack for monetary reasons. Most do it because they are bored. Almost 90 percent of the hackers think their own personal information is at risk. As far as I could tell, no terrorists or state-sponsored hackers were included in the survey.

On the Homefront notes that DHS’ Science and Technology directorate is looking for  ideas about what the future might look like. The public is asked

to ponder and think of solutions to questions such as, “Based on what we know today, what do you think the homeland security environment will look like in 20 to 30 years? What challenges will DHS components, responders, and our other end users face? How should the homeland security community change in order to best respond to these challenges? What should S&T plan for now to ensure the nation is more resilient and secure in the future?”

Small Wars Journal  points readers to J.M. Berger’s list of “ten things you need to know about reporting on terrorists on social media.”  Number 7: Random people tweeting specific threats is not [ISIS] making specific threats against America.

Bruce Schneier worries about the unintended side effects of California’s mandatory cell phone kill switch law .

“The law raises concerns about how the switch might be used or abused, because it also provides law enforcement with the authority to use the feature to kill phones. And any feature accessible to consumers and law enforcement could be accessible to hackers, who might use it to randomly kill phones for kicks or revenge, or to perpetrators of crimes who might—depending on how the kill switch is implemented—be able to use it to prevent someone from calling for help.”

The Scientific American investigates how hot the 2014 US summer was. Was it hotter than average? Colder? About in the middle? The answer is . . . yes….

Apparently looking at temperatures for a single year doesn’t tell you much. According to the people at Scientific American the warming trend the U.S. Senate can’t agree about is only obvious when you look at lots of years, like 100: http://www.climatecentral.org/news/the-heat-is-on

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