Homeland Security Watch

News and analysis of critical issues in homeland security

February 8, 2012

Supply chain testimony

Yesterday several DHS officials and others were on the Hill giving testimony related to the new National Strategy for Global Supply Chain Security.  Please see: http://homeland.house.gov/hearing/subcommittee-hearing-balancing-maritime-security-and-trade-facilitation-protecting-our-ports

Three quick impressions:

1. Constructive example of “stovepipes” being brought together around a supposedly stovepipe-busting strategy.

2. The tension between security and resilience is real, persistent, and difficult to effectively engage.   Security is tough enough.  Resilience requires even more creativity.

3. It is striking to have a hearing on this topic without hearing directly from the private sector as well.

This is an early step in rolling-out the new strategy.  Much more to come.

February 3, 2012

Risk is often in the eye of the beholder

Filed under: Catastrophes,Infrastructure Protection,Port and Maritime Security,Strategy — by Philip J. Palin on February 3, 2012

Although we can say with near certainty that new outbreaks of disease and catastrophic natural disasters will occur during the next several years, we cannot predict their timing, locations, causes, or severity.  We assess the international community needs to improve surveillance, early warning, and response capabilities for these events, and, by doing so, will enhance its ability to respond to manmade disasters.

James R. Clapper
Director National Intelligence
Testimony, January 31, 2012

The intelligence chief’s comments regarding the Iranian threat were considerably more circumspect, “We assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons, in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so.  We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.”

Yet Senators, the media, and perhaps General Clapper himself gave much more attention to the possible Iranian threat than the probable threat of natural catastrophe and pandemic.  The front page headline in the Washington Post was “U.S. spy agencies see new Iran risk.”

The same day the DNI was testifying on Capitol Hill, Mike Dunaway was making a presentation to a FEMA-hosted audience in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.   In late 2008 and early 2009 a reasonable sample of  respondents answered a series of questions regarding their perceptions of relative threats to continuity of private sector operations, profitability or survival.

A couple of the survey findings stood out for me: Among 19 threats identified, the lowest perceived threat was “geologic disaster (earthquake, mudslide, volcanic action)”.  The survey was conducted prior to the earthquake-and-tsunami in Japan and none of the respondents were in California.   Perceptions will vary by time and place.

Also low on the list of threats was “interruption in supply or delivery chain.”   Several firms reeling from the loss of Japanese and Thai suppliers might answer differently.  But I don’t doubt the survey findings reflect general attitudes.  (Dr. Dunaway’s dissertation is chock-full of interesting findings.)

As addressed in two posts last Thursday and Friday, the President has signed-out a National Strategy for Global Supply Chain Security.  I appreciate Alan Wolfe and Bill Cumming commenting here on the posts.  Most friends, colleagues, and perhaps an adversary or two, decided to communicate more privately.  Below are a sample of the comments received.

“Just words on paper, very unlikely to really influence supply chain policy.”

“Despite a bow to resilience, this is a security strategy.”

“Lots of cargo and logistics talk, not much recognition of how the supply chain is really something new and different.”

“Though better than the earlier draft, it still seems to be mostly focused on security and less on resilience. However, I know from direct experience it is not easy to write about resiliency, and perhaps being secure is one of the first parts of being resilient.”

“Stalking horse for new (costly) regulations.”

“While it is a national strategy, it feels quite federal/global to me. I’m not sure if many state and/or local folks could conceive how they could contribute to helping realize the goals outlined. It is my belief that a resilient supply chain, like many things, starts and ends in localities around the world.

“C-suites will ignore and deploy their minions to be sure “efficiency” always trumps “resilience,” no matter how inefficient it may be to have a catastrophic collapse of supply chains.”

“The private sector is paramount. It seems to me that much, though certainly not all, of the role of government will be to encourage, support, oversee and in some instances force the private sector to do things. Left to themselves, I think other forces will drive the private sector to not do some of what has to be done to reduce risk and enhance resiliency.”

“To give this the status of a presidential strategy is sort of amazing. It’s made me stop to think. But I feel a bit like a Catholic must feel when it’s announced the Pope has convened a major meeting on an aspect of doctrine I had really never thought of before.”

“What am I supposed to do? I don’t know enough about supply chains to even start a conversation with private sector peers. Besides which private sector peers? These are not the security and EM guys I usually work with.”

“(The strategy is) better than I would have bet. But while behind closed-doors the operators agree it is a real issue, how do you convince CEOs, CFOs, and Boards of Directors? Japan didn’t persuade. Thailand didn’t persuade. White House stationary is easy to ignore. The only things these masters-of-the-universe understand is a swift kick in you know where… and by then it will be too late.”

Perceptions will vary by time and place.  But there is a strong tendency to give more attention to external threats than internal vulnerabilities.  There is more concern regarding possible evil intent elsewhere than accident, neglect, and denial close at hand. We see the splinter in the eye of the other much more quickly than we recognize the log in our own eye.

December 30, 2011

Fukushima: soteigai or zatzusei

Monday the independent panel appointed to investigate the Fukushima nuclear accident released a 507 page interim report.  Most of the document focuses on specific operational decisions and tactical choices.

Several specific failures are highlighted: insufficient planning, poor regulation and oversight, inadequate training and exercising, a breakdown in communications within the government and between the government and the operator of the nuclear power plant.

The previous paragraph could be quickly edited to apply to nearly every serious industrial accident: Bhopal, TMI, Deepwater Horizon, various large-scale blackouts and others.   The same failures are referenced in most after-actions for events large and small.

Also typical has been most of the media coverage focusing on personal failures by political, regulatory and corporate leaders.

But toward the end of the report — and the 22 page English-language executive summary — are several atypical bits of analysis worth much more attention than given so far.

It is not easy to admit an absolute safety never exists and to learn to live with risks.  But it is necessary to make effort toward realizing a society where risk information is shared and people are allowed to make reasonable choices.

A quarter century ago I made some extra Yen editing Japanese-to-English translations.  This time I will mostly leave the first draft as it is. There is a kind of clarity in the slightly awkward but more literal rendering.

Even for an accident of low probabilities so long as extremely large scale damages are anticipated once it occurs… due consideration should be given to the risks involved and precautionary measures should be taken.

It was a major shortcoming for the safety of both nuclear power plants and surrounding communities that a nuclear accident had not been assumed to occur as a complex disaster.  Disaster prevention programs should be formulated by assuming complex disasters, which will be the major point in reviewing nuclear power plant safety for the future.

It cannot be denied that the viewpoint of looking at a whole picture of an accident was not adequately reflected in nuclear disaster prevention programs in the past.

The nuclear disaster prevention program had serious shortfalls. It cannot be excused that nuclear accidents could not be managed because of an extraordinary situation that… exceeded the assumption.

The Investigation Committee is convinced of the need of paradigm shift in the basic principles of disaster prevention programs for such a huge system, which may result in serious damage once it has an accident.

Whatever to plan, design and execute, nothing can be done without setting assumptions. At the same time, however, it must be recognized that things beyond assumptions may take place. The accidents this time present us crucial lessons on how we should be prepared for such incidents beyond assumptions.

Low probability, high consequence events deserve our sustained attention.

Reasonable assumptions will be exceeded.

The chairman of the investigation panel, Yotaro Hatamura, has been especially critical of the tendency to blame the crisis on soteigai. This is often translated as “unforseeable events,” but is probably closer to “unimaginable events.”  (Echoes of a “failure of imagination” in the 911 Commission report.)

Hatamura is an engineer.  His best known work is probably Learning from Design Failures in which he examines more than 100 cases to “uncover the root cause, reveal the scenario that led to the unwanted event, describe what happened so readers can clearly repeat the steps in their mind, and propose ways to avoid those mistakes in the future.”   It is a very detailed, case-by-case, engineering oriented approach to disciplined thinking.  He is a solution-oriented guy.

But Hatamura  has also become an advocate for clearly distinguishing between complexity and non-complexity and what can — and, even more important, cannot — be done to manage complexity.  With a little effort we can foresee complex events.  We have a much more difficult time imagining how our strategy for the complex must differ from our strategy for the merely complicated or novel or known.

The Japanese for complexity (see above) includes kanji a classically minded literalist might read as “a surprising recurrence of miscellaneous elephants.”  If you can imagine how you would manage that, you are on your way to being able to manage the cascade of a complex event.

The final report is expected in June.

November 22, 2011

Vandalism is stupid and silly, like “connecting interfaces to your SCADA machinery to the Internet.”

Filed under: Cybersecurity,Infrastructure Protection — by Christopher Bellavita on November 22, 2011

Water System Hack – The System Is Broken

Hackers ‘hit’ US water treatment systems

Homeland Security investigates possible terrorism in Springfield

Water system may be cyber attack victim

Has stuxnet come to our critical infrastructure shores?  Is it duqu?  Could it be something even worse?

“DHS and the FBI are gathering facts surrounding the report of a water pump failure in Springfield Illinois.  At this time there is no credible corroborated data that indicates a risk to critical infrastructure entities or a threat to public safety,” DHS spokesman Peter Boogaard explains.

“I dislike, immensely, how the DHS tend to downplay how absolutely FUCKED the state of national infrastructure is” responds someone named “prOf” in a pastebin post that includes, according to pr0f, images of another water system that was hacked.

“I’m not going to expose the details of the box,” prOf promises. “No damage was done to any of the machinery; I don’t really like mindless vandalism. It’s stupid and silly. On the other hand, so is connecting interfaces to your SCADA machinery to the Internet. I wouldn’t even call this a hack, either, just to say. This required almost no skill and could be reproduced by a two year old with a basic knowledge of Simatic.”

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Nick Catrantzos, who has written for Homeland Security Watch in the past, is an adjunct professor of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.  More relevant to today’s post, Nick is the former security director for a regional water utility.  Here are his thoughts on the most recent cyber event.

Spotting the Incidental Cyber Saboteur

You need not be evil to be wrong, and the true Achilles’ Heel of recent news about cyber attacks to water infrastructure in the Chicago area (details at http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/18/us/cyber-attack-investigation/index.html?iref=allsearch) is not foreign hackers of SCADA, the supervisory control and data acquisition system that makes it possible to turn a valve by remote control. Hackers have been a known external threat since the personal computer became widespread. Thus, makers of computer- and network-dependent tools like SCADA systems have to offer some protections against hackers just to make their systems marketable.

Why is no one therefore consulting other than self-avowed cyber security experts who are now issuing dire warnings about offshore SCADA hackers who may or may not be Russians? (The may-not possibility arises when these experts point out that clever hackers have the ability to misrepresent the origin of their attacks.). The same hand-wringing experts – or their fellow travelers – belong to the camp that opens the door to this vulnerability in the first place. They are not evil, just wrong.

Remote Access as Double-Edged Sword

Consider: Even the technologically challenged security professional sees the vulnerability to enabling remote access to critical systems, like water infrastructure. How do purveyors of such systems see remote access when marketing to fellow cyber aficionados? It is a selling feature, of course. Why, with remote access, the technician fielding a panic troubleshooting call at midnight can diagnose and solve the problem in pajamas instead of in the field. And the field, when it comes to water infrastructure, often turns out to be at distant sites over bad roads, poor lighting, and unattractive traveling conditions. Solving the problem from home is a win-win for all concerned, since it saves down time, isn’t it? Not if this debate includes security professionals charged with looking at the bigger picture of enterprise-wide vulnerabilities.

What makes it possible for these infrastructure attacks to abuse SCADA? Remote web access adopted in the name of expediency. What is the Achilles’ Heel? Naïve or myopic cyber professionals whose over attention to expediency permits convenient remote access for their technical support colleagues with insufficient attention to the exposure that this condition creates.

Discovering What Some Won’t Admit

How to zero in on the problem? The way not to do it is to rely exclusively on pronouncements of SCADA vendors and their like-minded counterparts in the organization who bought into web-based remote access in the first place. There is a good chance at least some of these people overlooked sharing details of remote access vulnerabilities in discussing the system before upper management and traditional security practitioners.

No, the short path to excellence in uncovering self-introduced remote access exposures is to check logs of trouble calls against field records of physical access to work sites. The more serious cyber professionals know to avoid web-based SCADA access from any home and, instead limit access to SCADA terminals that reside behind the secured perimeter of the institution’s work facilities. Maybe a SCADA technician fielding a trouble call won’t have to drive three hours to diagnose the problem at a remote field site, but he may still have to drive 20 minutes to get to a locked and alarmed office that houses a protected SCADA terminal. At least this is the ideal and advertised state of affairs. But even 20 minutes may, in time, seem too much of an imposition, so the SCADA tech quietly arranges to beta test remote access from — you guessed it — the convenience of his or her own residence. Unofficially, without a lot of fanfare. So much so, that even the boss may not realize this is happening, hence the futility of relying on the cyber function to verify its own status regarding this vulnerability. There is another way to check.

Uncovering the Rest of the Story

If expediency has come to trump security, an examination of audit trails will soon show that technician troubleshooting calls at midnight aren’t matching up to midnight access to facilities housing SCADA terminals. Maybe operators in the field are too immersed in the problem to ask or even care how a SCADA tech is responding to a trouble call. They just want help. Maybe the tech is shrewd enough to avoid volunteering details, reasoning that speed of problem resolution is more important than revealing that this is being done from home via means subject to compromise and exposure to hackers.

However, audit trails won’t lie. Whether it is via manual logs, automated access records, video surveillance archives, or a guard’s register used for having all employees sign in after normal business hours, the discrepancy will surface under scrutiny. The on-call tech who was supposed to go to an employer site to troubleshoot the problem on a protected SCADA terminal will have shown no record of having entered any employer business site at midnight. So how did he or she handle the problem? Remotely. From home. In pajamas. Expediently. And, in the process, exposing the system to exploitable vulnerability.

Caution on Experts Offering Homilies about Cyber Attack

The so-called expert who was quick to criticize government officials on this latest cyber attack claimed he was doing so out of concern that the Department of Homeland Security was deficient in sharing information with other water agencies that could be targeted. If he were truly as conversant with water security as he claimed, he would know that it is not DHS but EPA that exercises the role of lead federal agency for protection of the water infrastructure. He would also know that EPA supports Water ISAC, the Information Sharing and Analysis Center for the water sector, and that the Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies manages that function, which takes the lead in sharing this kind of threat information within the water community, while DHS and local fusion centers do their share of distributing such information as well.

Showing no sign of recognizing these particulars, how could this self-styled expert really know what information on this SCADA threat is or is not circulating within the affected community of interest? A skeptic might conclude that such considerations take a back seat, however, when dire warnings can generate free publicity.

IT vs. Ops

Some over zealous IT departments in utilities that use SCADA see SCADA as a means of supplying bandwidth on which to commingle business applications as well, thereby increasing likely needs for remote access by more employees and raising susceptibility to compromise at the same time.

If employees in Operations at water utilities don’t over concern themselves with security deficiencies in SCADA, it tends to be because they have their hands full avoiding one or two catastrophes a year when SCADA techs unthinkingly shut down the system for maintenance or cause some other disruption without telling Ops in advance. The techs forget that flow changes can result in catastrophic treatment or distribution problems that affect water quality. This often occurs after business hours or on weekends, when the techs operate on the assumption that it is the best time to tinker without users noticing or balking — true enough for the average business network, but not for 24/7 attention to water treatment and distribution.

One sign that too many debacles have been surfacing serially is when Ops wrests the SCADA function away from IT. This does wonders for reducing those kinds of snafu.

 

 

August 24, 2011

Calling the Capitol

A seismograph near Middleton Place showed a sudden burst of activity just before 2 p.m. (see hours at left of graph).

More than a few people in the public safety and homeland security sectors are hoping yesterday afternoon’s shallow M5.8 earthquake shook some sense into politicians, bureaucrats and Congressional staffers. The temblor, the largest recorded in the national capitol region in more than a century, caused a large-scale disruption of cellular telephone service when it struck shortly before 2:00 PM EDT. Cellular operators attributed the failure to overloads rather than physical damage to system components. Landline services, including the copper-wire-based public switched telephone network, remained operational and under-utilized.

The growing dependence of Americans on cellular telephone services, especially the extent to which reliance on these devices has displaced older technologies, has raised concerns among regulators and the regulated alike. Phone companies are now having trouble keeping up with the increasing capabilities of the devices we crave. Despite our seemingly elastic appetites for each new generation of wireless technology, our willingness to pay for the infrastructure to support these nifty services has remained relatively constrained. Meanwhile, pressure on companies to improve profitability in an atmosphere of constrained revenues and stiff competition have limited infrastructure spending to such an extent that one wonders whether the price and performance curves will ever be reconciled, even if the economic recovery takes hold.

This harsh reality has fueled pressure from the public safety industry on regulators and legislators to designate and release a large chunk of radio-frequency spectrum known as D-Block for development of a national broadband public safety network. It didn’t take long for advocates of this move to capitalize on the quake to underscore their concerns about the status quo and renew calls for immediate action on the D-Block petition.

You might wonder why overloaded cellular networks are much of a concern to public safety agencies. After all, don’t they have their own radio frequencies already anyway? We’ve invested lots of federal, state, local and tribal government money in the decade since 9/11 improving interoperable communications capabilities. Hasn’t this paid off somehow?

Well, Virginia, thanks for asking. Yes, public safety does have a lot of spectrum and some pretty fancy equipment. This equipment and the slices of spectrum already allocated do a pretty good job of relaying voice communications and a small amount of data. But because of the limitations of these proprietary technologies and the institutional inertia of the agencies who own and operate it, police, fire-rescue and EMS services rely pretty heavily on the same cellular services the rest of us do for high-speed, broadband data applications and services. And like the rest of us, they often use cellular telephones when they only need to relay a message to a single person. That means when we lose cellular service they do too.

But wait a minute, don’t public safety officials have priority access to cellular telephone services? Clever girl, Virginia. Yes, they do. But that doesn’t help much when the number of priority calls alone are sufficient to swamp the system. Imagine, if you will, how many people in Washington, D.C. and along the eastern seaboard consider their need to communicate with someone right this second more important than anyone else’s. Besides not every public safety agency has configured its equipment and paid the fees necessary to obtain this sort of priority access.

Cellular network operators say most services returned to normal within about 20 minutes of the earthquake. One suspects that the decision to release many (so-called) non-essential government workers early was predicated at least in part on a desire to alleviate further strain on the region’s already overburdened systems and services. At the same time, one has to wonder what this cost both in terms of lost productivity and public image.

By most accounts, the earthquake, despite its surprising intensity and duration, caused relatively little physical damage. But the fiscal damage of the decisions yet to come remains to be seen.

August 19, 2011

Urbanization and professionalization suppress resilience (!?)

A  firefighter, a  cop, and an emergency manager walk into a bar.  This is not a joke.  I was with the three of them.

One had red wine, another had a beer, the third ordered scotch.   I was drinking Dry Sack on the rocks with a twist.

Can you guess which one had which drink?  Can you guess which offered what to the conversation:

“The problem is everyone is in denial about the worst risks.”

“New Orleans after Katrina was simple compared to Sendai after the tsunami.  How about Memphis after New Madrid or LA after the big one?” You can know the real pros by whether or not they pronounce it Maaadrid, as in really crazy.

“How about DC, Pittsburgh, and Birmingham after New Madrid?  How about pipelines, rail bridges, interstates, and the Eastern Interconnect after New Madrid?”  Hows about every little town downstream from a dam?

“How about the whole economy for the next ten years after Long Beach is taken out? I don’t care if it’s tsunami, pandemic, or an IND.”

“How about the whole economy if some cyber-anarchists decide to really screw with credit cards and ATMs?”

“As long as they vaporize my mortgage too.”

The bar talk was not as grim as this suggests.  Extended conversations with this crew are like a public reading of Dante’s Inferno (no Paradiso) with a running commentary by the comedian Lewis Black.  You roar with laughter over a comment that ought not be documented here.   A slightly sick sense of humor is essential to survival in these professions.

“We’re the real problem,” one guy said wrapping his arms around the shoulders of those on either side.  ”We’re too good.  Why worry when the A team’s got your back?”

“Just call 911 and the cavalry always comes.”

“Even under fire… hell, with radioactive brimstone falling from the sky.”

“Thing is, we’re really good at the everyday stuff and lots of the tough stuff.”

“Did you hear about the 911 call because the citizen thought her remote had been stolen.  Cops found it in a drawer.  They responded!”

“That’s the problem, we are so #$!@ responsive we’ve trained the citizens to depend on us.  When the big #$!@ happens they just wait around.”

“Not everyone.”

Practically EVERYONE!”

“There’s two big pile-ups:  real increasing dependence. Who grows their own food anymore?  Who even eats at home? And where does our food come from? Not anywhere close.  Second pile-up: The #$!@ complicated system works really, really well until it doesn’t work at all.  So there’s no obvious reason to pay much attention, until it’s too late.”

“So… what we’re really good at is hiding the problems?”

“Sure.  There’s a fire.  You put it out.  You get ‘em temporary housing or they go to the in-laws.  I keep gawkers away.  Everything’s fine. No worries. But in Joplin or Tuscaloosa? Even those huge twisters were tiny compared to what we’ll get when the wrong fault shifts under 5 million or a wildfire overwhelms San Diego.  Hows about a CAT 5 and flood surge pounding Miami-Dade?”

“When they call 911 no one will answer, they won’t even get a #$!@ dial-tone!”

“It doesn’t take such a big hit.  Maybe catastrophe comes on little cat feet?  You read Ted Lewis’ new book?  The complex systems we depend on are so intricate  just one little complication and the consequences cascade.”

“Sort of like the 2003 blackout caused by tree branches in Ohio?”

“But the cause wasn’t tree branches, it’s the way WE build and manage systems. Tree branches are a preexisting condition.  Our choices create the vulnerabilities.”

“You know when I was a little kid,” (the guy to his right mimicked the Staten Island accent) we had a farm right down the road.  It’s a landfill now.  The big farms in Jersey, they’re all McMansions.  Mom and pop get their broccoli and peas from California just like all of us.”

“You know what though? The beers alot better than back then.  Hey waitress, another round here.”

August 10, 2010

End dependency on fossil fuels by driving on solar panels

Filed under: Infrastructure Protection — by Christopher Bellavita on August 10, 2010

In February, I wrote about a colleagues idea in a post titled “How to create a resilient infrastructure in 20 years for 1 trillion dollars, create millions of jobs, transition to green transportation, and do all of this at no cost to government.” That post is here.

A friend (thanks, George) recently sent a video to me (below) that describes another creative infrastructure idea:

“cover all concrete and asphalt surfaces that are exposed to the sun with solar road panels. This will lead to the end of our dependency on fossil fuels of any kind.

“We’re aware that this won’t happen overnight. We’ll need to start off small: driveways, bike paths, patios, sidewalks, parking lots, playgrounds, etc. This is where we’ll learn our lessons and perfect our system. Once the lessons have been learned and the bugs have all been resolved, we’ll plan to move out onto public roads.”

(You can read more details about the Solar Roadways project at this link: http://solarroadways.com/vision.shtml

I showed the video illustrating the solar roads project to some engineering friends.  Here’s part of the resulting conversation:

Dr. R — That’s totally cool. I’d need to be convinced that you could manufacture this stuff as cheaply as asphalt and more importantly, that the total cost of ownership is lower. But how cool would it be to have this running up to your house? You’d get rid of all the lines that are there now and run it all thru this.

Dr. T — This is orders of magnitude better than [the idea posted in February]!  But the bureaucracy and red tape cutting to do this is horrendous.

Dr. T — Question: If you charge power and telecom companies to use it, you could not only pay for it but make a return on investment.  But does it work? Driving a million semis over circuits every week is much different than a lab test.

Dr. R — Yea, durability is the key. I won’t be convinced until someone funds a real test case that we can carefully observe for a few years with heavy traffic. Lots of trucks!  Of course, you’ll have the occasional 15 year old hacker who finds a way to spell swear words in the LEDs but that would be cool too.

Dr. T — You can read your email while driving on it! Generally power engineers don’t believe in this idea because they understand the physics of long haul transmission and it isn’t friendly. But I think they [power engineers] have not considered an alternate architecture that incorporates storage. Flywheels, compressed air and batteries are not integrated into their models.

The glass highway project plus storage could change all that, but the grid would have to operate as a store-and-forward network rather than as a big electronic circuit. That is, we need about a decade of research that is orthogonal to current linear incremental thinking about the grid.

Here’s the 4:38 solar roadways video:

March 30, 2010

85% More From The Private Sector About Critical Infrastructure

Filed under: Infrastructure Protection — by Christopher Bellavita on March 30, 2010

I was reading a paper by my colleague Nick Catrantzos  yesterday when I came across this sentence:

“…infrastructure defense is assumed to fall primarily into the hands of the private sector, which operates 85% of critical infrastructure.”

I ranted a year ago about the 85% number in a post that appeared on this blog.

The Number simply won’t die. It lives beyond truth or lie. Its reality is independent of time and space.

So I wrote back to Nick summarizing what I believe is the problem with The Number.

Nick — who loves the English language as a gardener treasures orchids — once presented me with a knit picker.  So he is aware of my tendency to occasionally pole vault over mouse turds.

Nick also has spent time in the same Circus and has been known to pick a nit or two, so he responded back with some evidence about the 85% number.  I pushed back.  He returned fire.  As did I.

Then he wrote something that shined a light on a bias I did not see I had.

A year ago, I wrote:

…the 85% figure has been used to justify a laissez fair critical infrastructure strategy. Private sector “ownership and control” has been interpreted to mean government frequently has to ask politely before it tries to do anything to improve safety and security.

If the 85% figure is wrong — or at least unsupported by any empirical basis — maybe the policies derived from that belief are also wrong.

Basically, I thought the 85% number was used to justify the government not pushing the private sector hard enough when it comes to protecting critical infrastructure.

Nick — who is a security manager and former security consultant for public and private organizations — described how this “who owns what” issue looks from the private sector.

My dilemma, perhaps a distant cousin to your own, has been in encountering an obdurate, logic-proof insistence by cops, fire fighters, emergency managers, fusion center staff, and DHS minions to define my employer and all critical infrastructure stewards as private sector entities.

It does not matter how much we demonstrate that we are a public agency and a regional extension of government.  As far as these people are concerned, we are private, hence unworthy of sensitive information (even if we were the ones to originate it) and inherently suspect of being profit driven (no matter how many wasteful, feel-good programs we underwrite for some avowed public good).  Even being part of the same retirement system and driving vehicles with tax-exempt license plates — two surefire convincers everywhere else — have no impact in shaking the conviction that we are infrastructure stewards, hence private sector mercenaries.

My unproven suspicion is that much of what is at the bottom of this categorization is a sort of tribal urge to satisfy two unstated objectives:

1.  Limit the in-group to an established comfort zone and organizationally and traditionally familiar faces.

2.  Assure that the existing in-group gains and keeps primacy at the trough of grants and other funding destined for public sector actors who are new both to homeland security and critical infrastructure protection.

If there are points to this fugue that resonate with me as an infrastructure steward, they are these:

A.  Critical infrastructure is definitely in both public and private hands.  Given the types of infrastructure that exist, it is reasonable and credible to accept that they are mainly privately owned and operated.

B.  Whether that percentage figure of 85% is anything more than an approximation or an archly crafted statistic meant to advance an ulterior agenda is mildly interesting to an infrastructure steward. At the end of the day, the hand on the wrench or on the SCADA system comes from the same gene pool, skill set,  and population.

C.  Even a critical infrastructure operation that is entirely managed by a public agency is going to have some private sector involvement and exposure.  Construction comes to mind.  We are always building or modifying facilities and upgrading systems.   Contrary to popular belief, even the wealthiest of public agencies cannot hire everyone they meet.   Contractors and subcontractors are as ubiquitous as they are indispensable.

D.  The original point of emphasizing private ownership and operation, to the extent I absorbed one, seemed to be as a means of emphasizing that protecting critical infrastructure is a shared responsibility and one that would be imperiled by ignoring private sector stakeholders. That point still makes sense to me.

February 23, 2010

How to create a resilient infrastructure in 20 years for 1 trillion dollars, create millions of jobs, transition to green transportation, and do all of this at no cost to government.

Filed under: Budgets and Spending,Infrastructure Protection,Technology for HLS — by Christopher Bellavita on February 23, 2010

The title of this post is a bit big.  But nowhere near as huge as the idea behind it.

The basic concept is to build new underground electric power transmission lines, natural gas pipelines, and telecommunication, cable TV, and Internet communication lines on rights-of-way already established by America’s 40,000 mile Interstate Highway System. The Interstate Highway System reaches nearly every part of the nation, and states own the rights-of-way along these roads. It makes sense to leverage this asset.

The idea — called the National System of Resilient Infrastructure (or NSRI) — was developed by Ted G. Lewis, at the Naval Postgraduate School.  Here are the details of this $1,000,000,000,000 idea:

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Proposed

Electric power, energy for transportation, and telecommunications capacity are three major economic drivers for the future economy of the USA.  But these sectors are in trouble, for a variety of reasons, including NIMBY (not in my back yard), lack of investment, and lack of vision.

To overcome these barriers, stimulate the economy, and develop a resilient infrastructure for the 21st century, the author proposes a “moon shot” scale effort to build a national system of resilient natural gas, electricity, and telecommunications infrastructure along the 40,000 miles of Interstate Highway.

This 20-year, $1 trillion project would be implemented by a public-private partnership structured much like a GSE (government-sponsored enterprise), and mainly funded by the private sector. Besides creating millions of jobs, enhancing our ability to transition to clean cars, trucks, and buses, the national system would be immediately self-sustained by usage fees, and therefore profitable. It would not cost the government any money, and would have an immense impact on the economy.

Infrastructure Equals Prosperity

The Dwight D. Eisenhower National System of Interstate and Defense Highways, commonly called the Interstate Highway System (or simply the Interstate) is the largest highway system and largest public works project in the world. More importantly, it propelled the United States into a new era of prosperity. Today, virtually all goods and services are distributed via the Interstate, which is still expanding.

In the 1990s the 25-year old Internet was commercialized, stimulating economic growth so much that it produced a bubble in 2000. Yet, the federal government’s $200 million investment has already returned 100-fold on investment, after less than 20 years of growth. The future of the global economy increasingly depends on the Internet.

It is clear that relatively modest investments in infrastructure reap exponentially large returns due to economic growth, job creation, and innovation. Since ancient Rome, no nation on earth has achieved or maintained greatness, security, and prosperity, without plentiful energy, robust communications, and transportation capacity.

The economy of the 21st century will run on electrical power and Internet packets. Without these, the USA will slip into fourth or fifth place among nations.

The Challenge

The United States faces an “infrastructure challenge” and an equally big opportunity, today. The challenge is to rejuvenate our failing basic infrastructures: water, power, telecommunications, and energy.

Progress in green energy generation is stalled because of inadequate transmission capacity. Telecommunications capacity must be greatly increased to accommodate global 3D virtual reality, multi-party conferencing, and high-performance research and development in medical, environmental, and technical industries. Think of the possibilities of telemedicine piped directly into your home, or corporate meetings conducted with 100,000 participants from around the globe.

Advances in material science, bioengineering, medicine, green energy, revolutionary telecommunications, and green transportation will present great opportunity over the next 20 years to those nations prepared to capitalize on them.

These are the economic drivers of the future, but they require advanced infrastructure.

We know how to turn sunlight into electrons, but lack the distribution channel to transport electrons produced in New Mexico to markets in New York. We know how to telecommute via our computers, but lack the bandwidth for two-way, 3D telecommunication between grandmother and granddaughter across the continent. We know how to automate transportation systems to reduce auto accidents and congestion, but our highways are “dumb.”  In the next 20 years, cars will run on electricity and natural gas, but we lack the infrastructure to refuel them while achieving energy independence.

Venture capital is pent up, waiting for government to stimulate a “green economy,” but we do not currently have the market distribution infrastructure to make it possible.

We need a National System of Resilient Infrastructure (NSRI) to take advantage of opportunities that will create jobs and keep America economically strong.

The Solution

The National System of Resilient Infrastructure plan (NSRI) is designed to address two roadblocks in the way of the next stage of economic growth: NIMBY, and the enormous cost of rebuilding the power and telecommunications infrastructure of the 21st century.

NIMBY (Not-In-My-Backyard) is currently blocking many projects because people do not want power lines in their backyards. In addition, infrastructure is enormously expensive and unattractive as an investment because it does not give companies a competitive advantage. For example, the current 1 trillion dollar electrical power grid is fragile due to a lack of transmission capacity. It is also based on 1940′s technology. But who can afford to invest 1 trillion dollars to rebuild it?

NSRI proposes to avoid NIMBY by placing critical infrastructure underground. NIMBY can be avoided by building underground electric power transmission lines, natural gas pipelines, and telecommunication/CATV/Internet communication lines on rights-of-way already established by the Interstate Highway System. States already own these rights-of-way, and the Interstate Highway System reaches nearly every part of the nation. It therefore makes sense to leverage this asset even more so.

Energy, Power, and Communications infrastructure also requires storage nodes (for surge resilience), “service stations” (for distribution), and several network operation centers. The NSRI will be resilient because of its storage, security, and distributed architecture [decentralized assets].

Robust and redundant, able to transmit commodities such as Internet packets, electrons from solar farms, natural gas for future cars, trucks, and buses, and bountiful electrical power for future cyber businesses, the NSRI will be a quantum step forward for the nation and the economy.

NSRI is America’s 21st century “moon shot.”

How to Pay for It

The NSRI network would be constructed much like the Interstate Highway network, over a 20-30-year period at an estimated cost of $50 billion per year.

The author estimates it would cost $25 million/mile to build the necessary tunnels, pipes, wires, etc. The Interstate is 40,000 miles long, hence a total estimated cost of $1 trillion over 20 years.

This may seem high, but it represents 3.6% of the combined revenues of the natural gas, electrical power, telecommunications, gasoline, and broadcast industries, see Table I.

infrastructure-sector-revenues

The Interstate Highway System is “pay-as-you-go”, with 90% of the funding coming from the Federal government, and the remaining 10% from the States. In its first year of construction, 1958, total costs were $37.6 billion. By 1991, the cost was $128 billion. But these billions contributed nothing to the national debt because they were paid for by a 40 cent per gallon tax on gasoline. Title II of the Highway Revenue Act of 1956 created the Highway Trust Fund to collect and dispense funding for the Interstate System.

Similarly, the NSRI would be financed through a Trust Fund established by Congress to create and operate NSRI. The NSRI financing plan needs to be worked out in detail, but two attractive options are: Option I: GSE (Government Sponsored Enterprise), and Option II: excise taxation, similar to the model used by the Highway Revenue Act of 1956.

Ultimately, the NSRI must be self-sustaining, through revenues generated by its use. A toll fee would be charged for use of the pipelines, communication lines, storage facilities, and service stations. These fees can be based on current regulated fees charged by telephone, utility, and pipeline companies – a familiar fee structure for these industries.

Option I: GSE: Ginny Mae, Sallie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are GSEs, i. e., government-backed enterprises listed on stock exchanges, and therefore, investor supported. The idea here is to raise the major portion of funding from investment banks, retirement funds, and personal investors through an IPO [initial public offering]. Like a GSE, the NSRI Trust Fund would be backed by the Federal government, and at some point reach a self-sustainable level through usage fees. This model, however, would probably require temporary taxation to raise the full $50 billion needed to initiate NSRI.

Option II: Excise Taxes: The Interstate Highway System was funded by a $0.40/gallon tax on gasoline (part Federal and part State). This tax can be rolled back as expenses are replaced with usage fees. Consider this: a 3.6% excise tax on revenues shown in Table I would raise $50 billion per year. Alternatively, an additional $0.40/gallon excise tax would raise $56 billion per year.

Both options are no-cost options for the Federal Government. Both options follow the Interstate Highway model whereby States own the infrastructure. Unlike the Interstate Highway model, however, the NSRI can easily achieve sustainability through an industry-accepted fee structure.

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Dr. Lewis can be reached at tlewis[at]nps.edu

August 27, 2009

How To Improve Homeland Security: A Universal Risk Assessment for America’s Railroads

Filed under: Infrastructure Protection,Risk Assessment — by Christopher Bellavita on August 27, 2009

America’s trains carry more than 12 million passengers every weekday.  There have been no successful attacks on US rail systems in recent history.  Globally, however, railway systems remain an attractive target for terrorists.

Between 1998 and 2003, there were more than 180 attacks on trains and related rail targets around the world.  Terrorists have attacked railway systems most dramatically in Mumbai, Moscow, Madrid, and London, killing hundreds and injuring thousands.

What are America’s railroads doing to prevent a similar attack?

In January 2009, DHS reported “that more than 75% of the nation’s major rail and bus systems aren’t meeting [voluntary] Homeland Security guidelines” established in 2007.   The same report, according to a story written by Frank Thomas, found that “96% of airlines are complying with security requirements.” [my emphasis]

I don’t know enough about rail security to know what to make of the comparative findings. But I do know that guidelines are not the same as requirements. As a TSA leader phrased it, there is no penalty for failing to comply with guidelines.

Two years ago, The RAND Corporation released “Securing America’s Passenger-Rail System,”  offering a framework for railroad security planning.  As far as I know, it remains the most comprehensive treatment of the vulnerabilities and threats faced by American railroads.

To understand railroad system vulnerability, RAND “identified 11 potential target locations (e.g., system-operation and power infrastructure) within a notional rail system and eight potential attack modes (e.g., small explosives).  These targets and attack modes were combined to produce 88 different attack scenarios of concern.”

Today’s guest blogger is a security executive with a major rail system.  Her idea about improving homeland security begins with a different kind of scenario.  She outlines a vulnerability created by the networked nature of America’s railroads, and suggests what can be done about it.

Here’s the scenario:

Assume that Rail Carrier A institutes specific security procedures based upon its own risk assessment. Rail Carrier B shares track with Carrier A but does not prioritize the trains entering A’s environment based upon A’s risk assessment.

Security measures on B’s trains are limited.  Because A and B trains operate simultaneously in the same environment it is possible that the security efforts of A are less effective because of B’s inadequate measures. Both Carriers are operating under individual risk assessments, but the inter-connectivity between the two carriers has not been adequately addressed.

Now, what to do about this vulnerability:

1. What one sentence best describes your idea about how to improve homeland security?

The Department of Homeland Security should conduct a universal rail transportation vulnerability assessment to effectively address national risk.

2. Describe the idea in more depth.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) through the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) requires rail transportation entities, both passenger and freight, to conduct vulnerability/risk assessments.  The TSA does not identify one methodology for conducting these assessments.   In order to better assess the vulnerability of the nation’s rail and mass transit systems, the TSA, as directed by the DHS, should conduct a universal rail risk/vulnerability study with one defined methodology to accurately assess the entire inter-connected national rail system.

In many areas track is shared by freight, regional and other passenger rail systems.  Although each of these entities conducts risk and vulnerability studies, they are not shared among the carriers or effectively evaluated from an overall homeland security perspective.

A universal approach would better reveal high risk locations and could assist individual carriers in determining how to effectively deploy limited resources. The risk and vulnerabilities can then be prioritized on a broad scale and evaluated to maximize the effective use of federally and otherwise funded security projects.

3. What problem does your idea address?

It is undeniable that rail, both freight and passenger systems, are key components of the United States’ critical infrastructure. It is also well known that the rail transportation sector is a preferred target for terrorists.  Independent risk assessments, which may not accurately reflect inter-connectivity, will not be effective in determining the actual vulnerability of our national rail system and, subsequently, assist in accurately deploying security resources.

4. If your idea were to become a reality who would benefit most and how?

The traveling public would be the primary beneficiary of a universal assessment.  A broad based evaluation of risk may increase security by placing the limited resources where they are most needed.

Individual rail companies have separate owners, budgets and priorities.  They add security measures and harden targets that are important to them as individual carriers.  This go-it-alone strategy may only result in pushing the terrorist to a less vulnerable target, instead of using a nationally defined risk to improve the security of the entire system.  Adding security improvements on a broader scale may deter a terrorist from attacking the transportation sector as a whole.

5. What are the initial steps needed to get the idea off the ground?

The DHS must take a more active role in the overall security of the rail system than it has to date and promulgate a federal regulation or directive.  Resources would be needed to define the risk methodology and to conduct this assessment in coordination with the rail carriers.

It is possible that there may be limited support for this new assessment from rail carriers because assessments have already been completed.  Consequently the value of what I am proposing may not be understood or accepted.  Funding to conduct the assessment is also a significant issue.

Individual next steps will include promoting the idea through the appropriate chain of command in the various Carrier groups, and obtaining permission to discuss the concept with an appropriate member of the TSA.

6. Describe the optimal outcome should your idea be selected and successfully implemented? How would you measure that outcome?

In the best case, all rail transportation would be universally assessed based upon the same methodology.  Security resources and funding awards would be deployed based upon these assessments.  Completing this universal assessment and resulting recommendations for a safer rail system could be a measure of success.

But the key to a safer rail will not be a report, but changes in rail security implemented because of the new assessment. The desired outcome will be to harden the entire rail system and make it a less attractive target for terrorists.

As in many cases, measuring the effectiveness of any security enhancement may not be possible.  But with a security approach derived from a universal rail sector risk assessment, we can achieve a new level of confidence in the security of America’s railroads.

May 29, 2009

Long-Awaited Cybersecurity Announcement and FEMA visit

Filed under: Cybersecurity,Infrastructure Protection,Preparedness and Response,State and Local HLS — by Jessica Herrera-Flanigan on May 29, 2009

At 10:55 this morning, President Obama will announce the long-awaited plans  for dealing with cyber security in his White House.  A cyber czar, albeit at a level lower than desired (special assistant), will be supported by a new cyber directorate within the National Security Council.  That person will also report to the National Economic Council. Expect the announcement will be broad in scope and discuss goals for dealing with the global threat of cyber security, as well as address such issues as a public awareness campaign for the challenges of cyber security and the need for a strengthened technology workforce in the U.S.

The 60 day review (that ended approx 30 days) ago, led by Melissa Hathaway, is the fourth attempt in the last 12 or so years to address cyber security.  In late 1996, President Clinton created the Presidential Commission for Critical Infrastructure Protection (PCCIP) that issued a report on its findings in 1997. That effort led to the 1998 Presidential Directive-63, the emergence of ISACs, and the creation of the National Infrastructure Protection Center (NIPC) at the FBI and the Critical Infrastructure Assurance Office (CIAO) at the Department of Commerce, among other organizations at various agencies.  Those two are worth noting as we continue, a decade later, to see a tension, as evidenced by the dual NEC and NSC reporting announcement expected today, between law enforcement/security and economic/commerce interests in cyber security.   Interestingly enough, the term “cyber czar” originated during that time – Dick Clarke in the White House.

In 2003, President Bush released the Clarke-led National Strategy to Secure Cyberspace which provided recommendations for “government-industry” cooperation.   Soon thereafter Clarke left the government. The strategy laid a framework for how the federal government would try to address cyber issues and promoted public-private partnerships.  DHS’ leadership on the issue was laid out about this time with the merger of most of the major cyber functions (NIPC, CIAO, FedCert, etc) into a new National Cyber Security Division. These efforts led to the creation of sector coordinating councils and the National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP).   There was wide-spread criticism that the Director of the NCSD was buried too far into DHS and the nation needed a WH czar. Congress responded by creating an Assistant Secretary position at DHS.

Round three happened in 2008. President Bush initiated the Comprehensive National Cyber Security Initiative.   The CNCI, officially established in January 2008 (though rumored as early as Sept 2007) by National Security Presidential Directive 54/Homeland Security Presidential Directive 23 was a multi-agency, multi-year plan laying out twelve steps to securing the federal government’s cyber security networks.  DHS would have the lead (mostly) on civilian systems while DoD would take the lead on .mil systems.  The role of NSA and the DNI was questioned, though hard for most to pen down given the classified nature of the program. By this point, the White House had a  Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Cybersecurity and Information Sharing Policy, Neill Sciarrone, and a multi-agency task force headed by Melissa Hathaway leading the CNCI efforts.  DHS, meanwhile, also created a Deputy Undersecretary for cyber at the National Protection and Programs Directorate – a role fulfilled by Scott Charbo in the Bush Administration and by Phil Reitinger in the Obama Administration.   Silicon Valley guru Rod Beckstrom was brought in as the First Director of the National Cyber Security Center.  He left several months ago, claiming that the NSA and intelligence agencies were taking too much of a leading role in the cyber efforts.

That leads us to today’s announcement in a few hours.  While in a condensed timeframe, there is much history in the nation’s cyber security efforts. Today’s efforts will set a framework – even if broadly- for how we are going to tackle round four.  The real question will be whether we can advance our efforts or will we be repeating this exercise in a few years.  Stay tuned for a more in-depth analysis of the cyber security analysis this afternoon.

Also worth noting – after the cyber announcement,  the President will attend a hurricane preparedness meeting at FEMA headquarters.  Hurricane season is only a weekend away so FEMA’s preparedness efforts and posture are critical.

April 2, 2009

Boy Meets Homeland Security Risk Assessment in Casablanca

Filed under: Infrastructure Protection,Preparedness and Response,Risk Assessment,State and Local HLS — by Christopher Bellavita on April 2, 2009

Boy meets girl. Boy loses girl. Boy gets girl back.

That doctrine guides innumerable novels and movies.  In the right hands, the formula can be used to create a film as sublime as Casablanca.  In the wrong hands you get something like “Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay.”

Homeland Security owns an equally well known formula: “Risk is a function of threat, vulnerability and consequence.”  Used in the right hands (see Bob Ross’ comments in the previous post), the formula can be a helpful way to structure thought.

The formula can also produce risk assessments.

Risk assessments are stories  — in the good sense of that word — used to justify spending money for some activities rather than others. The generic story is built around threats to harm something, ways the something can be harmed, and the results if that something is harmed. The moral of the story is “If you give us money, we will mitigate the risk.”

Good homeland security risk assessment stories are not easy to write.

Risk based anything is a cornerstone of the illusive homeland security doctrine.  Here’s the assertion in the 2007 National Homeland Security Strategy:  “We must apply a risk-based framework across all homeland security efforts in order to identify and assess  potential hazards …, determine what levels of relative risk are acceptable, and prioritize and allocate resources among all homeland security partners….“  Here’s the 2009 formulation from the Obama administration’s homeland security agenda: “Allocate Funds Based on Risk: Allocate our precious homeland security dollars according to risk, not as pork-barrel spending or a form of general revenue sharing. Eliminate waste, fraud and abuse that cost the nation billions of Department of Homeland Security dollars.

The risk acolytes sometimes sound like one of the characters in Harrold and Kumar:If you want to know the secret of being, you’ll come with us.”

Seven and a half years after the onset of the Overseas Contingency Operation (nee GWOT), there remains a substantial gap between the theory and the practice of the risk formula.   A June 2008 GAO report concludes DHS “reasonably” uses “empirical risk analysis and policy judgment” to allocate grants. (See another helpful GAO report on this issue here.)

I read “empirical risk analysis” to mean DHS used numbers. Where do those numbers come from?

I read “policy judgment” to mean politics and opinions were involved. Who is making those “policy judgments,” and how do people outside Washington get in on that judgment?

I read “reasonable” in the GAO report to be an acknowledgement that determining risk is really hard; DHS has done they best they can with the data available and the constraints they face; they are better at doing this than they used to be; and they are continuing to improve.

But is it acceptable inside the “fierce urgency of now” to wait 7 years to get an equation right?

What to do about this?  How is it that homeland security came to place so much faith in the logic of risk and its conceptual offspring?  Are there alternatives we can try?

Perhaps we could acknowledge homeland security risk assessment’s dependence on a falsely precise empiricism, and experiment with allocating resources explicitly (and with accountability) on the basis of opinion and politics.  Or maybe we could try an allocation strategy built around the “redundancy, flexibility, and diffuse control” options Geerat J. Vermeij discusses in Natural Security: A Darwinian Approach to a Dangerous World? (Edited by Sagarin and Taylor, and available here.)

Another approach is to blow off  such alternatives (what’s a nice word for naive?), and work harder at “solving” the problem.

I came across a numbingly-titled but intellectually honest paper called: “Incorporating Assessments of Terrorism Risk in Homeland Security Resource  Allocation Decision Making: Closing the Gap Between Current and Needed  Capabilities.” Its 10 pages are worth reading by anyone who cares about homeland security and risk, and who believes “the problem” is fixable.  (The paper is available here; it appears to have been written to support an April 13-16 conference called “Risk-Informed Decision Making for HLS Resource Allocation;” information about what looks to be a thoroughly interesting conference can be found here).

Some excerpts from the paper [and my overly simplified interpretations]:

“Despite the best efforts of numerous experts from the government, industry, and academia, fully effective and transparent integration of risk assessments into DHS homeland resource allocation decision making remains an elusive goal.” [The theory is not working in practice.]

“The risk construct … [Risk = Threat x Vulnerability x Consequences] is logical, intuitively appealing, and consistent with conceptualizations of risk used in other domains. However, uncertainty inherent in deriving estimates for its components in the case of terrorism risk continues to compromise its usefulness in DHS resource allocation decision making. As a result, terrorism risk assessments have not played the prominent role they were expected to play in DHS resource allocation decision making. More robust and defensible methods for generating required inputs for this terrorism risk construct are required if it is to become an important factor in homeland security resource allocation decision making.”   [The theory sounds good, but the data to use it aren't there.]

Risk Management:

“Significant perceived shortfalls in our current ability to generate defensible estimates of the threat of terrorism, terrorism vulnerability, and the consequences of terrorism continue to hamper DHS’ ability to effectively incorporate terrorism risk assessments into its resource allocation decision making process. In addition, predicting and/or measuring the risk reduction effect or payoff of terrorism risk management initiatives remain a complex and unresolved challenge.” [We can't defensibly calculate the values the formula needs; we also can't figure out the effect of reducing risk.]

Threat:
“[The] statistically oriented, historical frequency approach [to determine threat] is useful for that portion [of the] DHS’ “all hazards” mission space associated with natural catastrophic and accidental events. However, [that analytical approach] does not apply to the threat (i.e., probability of attack) of terrorism. Risk analysts assessing the risk of terrorist activities are not faced with accidental random loss-inducing outcomes or acts of nature. They must deal with the potential for harm and/or loss deliberately inflicted by intelligent and adaptive adversaries willing to operate outside normally accepted patterns of behavior. Simply identifying all potential terrorists is a monumental challenge. Predicting their behavior – i.e., which targets or kinds of targets terrorists may strike, how they will choose to strike (i.e. weapons and/or threat vector), and when they will strike is an even more daunting and uncertain element of terrorism risk assessment.” [Terrorism is a really different kind of threat.]

Vulnerability:
“Assessing the vulnerability of potential terrorism targets might seem to be a theoretically more tractable problem. However, it requires detailed knowledge of the target, the nature of the terrorist attack, and the circumstances under which it will occur. Thus, vulnerability assessment involves many of the same uncertainties encountered when assessing the intentions and capabilities of potential terrorist adversaries.  Even where credible estimates are possible, the sheer magnitude of the task of assessing the vulnerabilities of every potentially lucrative terrorist targets in our open society is overwhelming.” [Everything is vulnerable to something.]

Consequences:
“Predicting the consequences of terrorism events also presents difficult intellectual, philosophical, and emotional challenges. Most previous catastrophic risk assessments have limited their prediction and/or measurement of consequences to direct effects which can usually be estimated in relatively straightforward, transparent, and reliable ways. These direct effects typically include human fatalities, injuries, and the direct economic cost of the physical damage inflicted. However, it is widely acknowledged that terrorism events usually result in a broad range of secondary or indirect effects or costs that can be more extensive, and often more important and long lasting….Not only are these secondary or indirect effects of terrorist events difficult to predict or measure, but knowing how to prioritize them, and/or to compare them with the consequences of catastrophic accidents and/or natural disasters remains an unanswered question with complex societal and emotional dimensions.” [Consequence streams approach singularity.]

Risk Mitigation Effectiveness/Cost-Effectiveness:
“Assessing the effectiveness or payoff of a terrorism risk mitigation measure might initially seem to be a reasonably straightforward challenge. However, the effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of any terrorism risk mitigation initiative is inevitably dependent upon, and confounded by the way terrorists react to that measure….  Related closely to the issue of predicting the effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of risk mitigation measures is deciding how much our Nation should be willing to allocate to terrorism risk reduction, or how great a risk of terrorism we should be willing to accept. In reaching this judgment it must be recognized explicitly that resources allocated to reducing the risk of terrorism impose an economic cost on the Nation since they are unavailable for other needs. Thus, anti-terror initiatives represent other opportunities foregone and must be evaluated as such.” [Perhaps money allocated to homeland security could help the Nation more if it were used for something other than homeland security.]

Maybe risk can be salvaged as a way to allocate homeland security resources effectively.  If you are in that camp, I think you will find the paper — and the questions it contains for the conference panels — intriguing and thoughtful.

The problems we have experienced trying to get homeland security risk assessments correct might also signal an opportunity to try something fundamentally different.  Maybe we have traveled long enough down the risk assessment path.

Captain Renault: What in heaven’s name brought you to Casablanca?
Rick: My health. I came to Casablanca for the waters.
Captain Renault: The waters? What waters? We’re in the desert.
Rick: I was misinformed.

February 24, 2009

New NIPP Now Available

Filed under: General Homeland Security,Infrastructure Protection — by Philip J. Palin on February 24, 2009

A new version of the National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) has been released. The complete report is available from DHS .

The 188 page report (with appendices) opens with the following purpose statement: Protecting and ensuring the resiliency of the critical infrastructure and key resources (CIKR) of the United States is essential to the Nation’s security, public health and safety, economic vitality, and way of life. Attacks on CIKR could significantly disrupt the functioning of government and business alike and produce cascading effects far beyond the targeted sector and physical location of the incident. Direct terrorist attacks and natural, manmade, or technological hazards could produce catastrophic losses in terms of human casualties, property destruction, and economic effects, as well as profound damage to public morale and confidence. Attacks using components of the Nation’s CIKR as weapons of mass destruction could have even more devastating physical and psychological consequences.

Some call-outs:

Resilience is an increasingly popular term-of-art. Bad things will happen. How can we bounce-back more quickly and completely? Is resilience the new “robust” – jargon to camouflage lack of thought? Or will the Obama administration be serious in cultivating true resilience?

The risk of catastrophic consequence requires prevention and mitigation. Response, no matter how effective, is insufficient.

CIKR are vulnerable to terrorist, natural, manmade and technological hazards. It not just a war against terrorism, it is a struggle to manage and mitigate risk.

CIKR can be weaponized. CIKR are not just potential targets. Transportation resources, material processing, financial systems and much more can be used to attack other targets.

Elephant, gorilla, or other significant aspect treated as if it were a kitten:

Private sector ownership and control of CIKR is acknowledged but not seriously engaged. The goals and processes of the NIPP will only be meaningful if enthusiastically embraced by the private sector. How this level of collaboration might be cultivated is not given serious attention.

This absence reminds me of Chris Bellavita’s (Director of Programs at the Center for Homeland Defense and Security) fabulous fable of what works and what does not work in planning of every sort. This is available on YouTube (have your audio on).

January 22, 2009

Day One at DHS Starts with 5 Directives

Filed under: Aviation Security,Infrastructure Protection,Risk Assessment,State and Local HLS,Strategy — by Jonah Czerwinski on January 22, 2009

Day One at DHS started with Secretary Napolitano at the helm issuing five Action Directives centered on the Protection mission for the Department. The directives request internal reviews to be conducted on how DHS protects critical infrastructure, conducts risk analysis, shares information with state and local authorities, “integration” of DHS engagement of states, localities, and tribes, and protection measures aimed at air, surface, and maritime transportation sector. The last one includes a “side by side comparison of the threat environment, resources and personnel devoted to each transportation sector.”

“One of my top priorities is to unify this department and to create a common culture. These action directives are designed to begin a review, evaluation and dialogue between the various functions of this department and me,” said Secretary Napolitano.

Further directives are expected to come soon concerning preparedness, response, recovery, and immigration.

Following is the text describing the directives as issued at DHS:

• Critical infrastructure protection. This core mission of DHS entails a broad mandate to reduce the vulnerability of key systems and structures to natural and manmade threats. DHS oversees the national critical infrastructure list and manages 18 infrastructure sectors established under Homeland Security Presidential Directive-7, with primary responsibility for information technology, telecommunications, chemical, transportation, emergency services, and postal and shipping. This entails extensive dealings with other federal agencies, states, and the private sector, involving collaboration, data collection, risk analysis, and sharing of best practices. What is the current status of the critical infrastructure list, relations with the 18 sector security councils and the other departments that have critical infrastructure protection roles? What are the plans to enhance protection? How do we enhance private sector participation? An oral report is due Jan. 28.

• Risk analysis. Given the extensive number of vulnerabilities to manmade and natural disasters and the limitations on resources, determining national priorities and the judicious distribution of resources are a major element of the department’s mission. What is the status of risk analysis metrics and what is the plan and time frame for setting up a full-blown system to govern the establishment of critical infrastructure programs, the priorities among national planning scenarios, and the distribution of grants to state, local, and tribal entities? More broadly, how can DHS enhance risk management as the basis of decision making? An oral report is due Jan. 28.

• State and local intelligence sharing. Core to the department’s ability to successfully carry out its mission is sharing information within the department, and between DHS and other federal, state, local, tribal, and private sector entities. Across the department there are currently multiple operational, technological, programmatic, and policy-related activities underway to focus on improved information sharing.

o Given the importance of this mission, please provide a complete inventory of all operational, programmatic, technology, and policy related activities currently underway.

o Provide an evaluation of which activities hold the most promise for achieving the smooth flow of information on a real time basis.
The inventory and evaluation should take into account the voices of all stakeholders, especially state, local and tribal entities.
The evaluation should also consider the private sector’s perspective and its relationship to these stakeholders.

o The inventory and evaluation should focus on ensuring that the department’s information sharing efforts are closely linked to government-wide efforts to establish the Information Sharing Environment as called for the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004.

o DHS Intelligence & Analysis should evaluate whether DHS is meeting all of its information sharing missions as described in Section 201(d) of the Homeland Security Act of 2002, P.L. 107-296, especially Section 201(d)(1).

An oral report is due Jan. 28.

• Transportation security. TSA is directed to provide a review to the Secretary of the current strategies, plans and programs for security of the air, surface, and maritime transportation sector, to include a side by side comparison of the threat environment, resources and personnel devoted to each transportation sector. TSA shall coordinate, as necessary, with all pertinent components and offices in DHS, as well as with all relevant outside bodies and advisory councils. An oral report is due Jan. 28.

• State, local and tribal integration. To promote policies to more fully integrate American state, local, and tribal governments in the development of policies and programs to protect our nation and help it recover from natural and manmade disasters consistent with the homeland security interests of the United States, the DHS Office of Intergovernmental Affairs shall:

o Immediately contact every relevant governmental association, e.g. the National Governors Association, National Association of Counties, League of Cities and Towns, U.S. Conference of Mayors, National League of Cities, National Emergency Management Association, and the National Congress of American Indians, announcing that DHS intends to revitalize its relationship with state, local, and tribal governments effective immediately with the intent of creating a working partnership.

o Immediately plan for an accelerated process of soliciting and collecting input from our state, local and tribal partners on how to improve the programs and processes of DHS.

o This input should include, but not be limited to, the following topics:
a. Critical infrastructure
b. Grant making
c. Interoperability
d. Intelligence collection and dissemination
e. Emergency services
A preliminary written report is due Feb. 10.

September 26, 2008

Infrastructure Security Developments

Filed under: Infrastructure Protection — by Jonah Czerwinski on September 26, 2008

I’m still out a Livermore with the Stimson Center task force and so only have a couple updates:

HLSwatch reader William Cumming sent in word that The Society of American Military Engineers, Alexandria, Va., has been chosen for the role of Secretariat for The Infrastructure Security Partnership (TISP)-a public-private partnership dedicated to improving the nation’s critical infrastructure resilience (SAME). The role of Secretariat had formerly been filled by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE).

As Secretariat, SAME will provide logistical support to the organization; however, TISP will retain its own identity, branding and mission. Part of SAME’s new role in moving TISP forward will include helping to initiate a series of quarterly forums addressing issues related to the nation’s infrastructure and featuring panel discussions with a wide variety of leaders.

In the meantime, David Bodenheimer of Crowell & Moring will moderate a panel discussion entitled “Securing Our Critical Infrastructure: Money, Security, and Homeland Security Opportunities” on October 2, 2008, with:
• Robert B. Stephan, Assistant Secretary, Infrastructure Protection, Department of Homeland Security
• Jessica Herrera-Flanigan, Partner, Monument Policy Group and Former Staff Director and General Counsel, House Homeland Security Committee
• Paul B. Kurtz, Partner, Good Harbor Consulting, LLC
• Mick Kicklighter, Director, Center for Infrastructure Protection, School of Law, George Mason University.

September 2, 2008

Wake-Up Call Seven Years After

Filed under: General Homeland Security,Infrastructure Protection — by Jonah Czerwinski on September 2, 2008

China won the competition to host the recently concluded 2008 Olympics on July 13, 2001 – just two months before 9/11. For those wondering whether or not we are more secure today than we were before 9/11, consider a broader metric offered today by Thomas Friedman.

Friedman reflects on how China and America have spent the last seven years:

China has been preparing for the Olympics; we’ve been preparing for al-Qaeda. They’ve been building better stadiums, subways, airports, roads and parks. And we’ve been building better metal detectors, armored Humvees and pilotless drones.

The Olympics are over – and were a triumph. Al Qaeda, on the other hand, remains a threat. Fighting terrorism is harder than putting on a $50 billion international competition. (The latter is the Olympics.) But, Friedman points out that the hidden costs are beginning to show:

Compare arriving at La Guardia’s dumpy terminal in New York City and driving through the crumbling infrastructure into Manhattan with arriving at Shanghai’s sleek airport and taking the 220 mph magnetic levitation train, which uses electromagnetic propulsion instead of steel wheels and tracks to get to town in a blink.

At least he notes that China is not equally blessed. Beyond Beijing, that country is still in worse shape than the U.S. Friedman’s point is different: Consider how much modern infrastructure has been built in China since 2001 and how much infrastructure has been postponed in America since 2001. The next president needs a devoted nation-building program in America.

“The next president,” Friedman explains, “can have all the foreign affairs experience in the world, but it will be useless if we, as a country, are weak.” Homeland Security, in other words, is a critical part of keeping America competitive and investments in securing America can also pay dividends in quality of life. A safe and efficient public transportation system is both more secure and more effective.

The next election is not about who is tough enough on terrorists. Both Obama and McCain are equally committed to combating terrorism. The real metric is who is “strong enough, focused enough, creative enough and unifying enough to get Americans to rebuild America.”

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