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Ostaa halvalla viagra, Happy birthday today to the Internet as we know it.  It was on March 15, 1985,  that Symbolics Computers of Cambridge, Massachusetts registered Symbolics.com, the first .com domain.   Today, there are more than 84 million addresses and growing as more than 668,000 sites are registered each month.

Interestingly, the Los Angeles Times ran a story late last week entitled "Internet making it easier to become a terrorist, Where to buy viagra online, " detailing how the Internet has become a "crucial front" in the battle for and against terrorism, making it easier for potential homegrown terrorists to get and share information.  Potential terrorists no longer have to travel around the world to terror training camps but can become militarized and taught to "wage violent jihad" in their PJs from the comfort of their bedrooms, according to the article.

Much of the article focused on the transformation of Colleen R, viagra in Ethiopia. LaRose from a bored middle-aged American into her Internet alter-ego, "Jihad Jane."  The Christian Science Monitor ran a similar story Friday, Viagra salt lake, noting an increase in U.S. terror suspects and how "advances in online communication have made it easier to recruit Americans to radical Islam."  The publication did a separate story last week about the troubling and possibly increasing ability of Al Qaeda to attract American women to terrorism. The story, however, only noted only two other instances where women have been charged in the U.S, ostaa halvalla viagra. with terror violations:

• The case of Lynne Stewart who was convicted of helping imprisoned Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman communication with this followers; and

• Aafia Siddiqui, a Pakistani scientist found guilty of shooting at U.S, difference generic vs. prescription viagra. personnel in Afghanistan while yelling, "Death to Americans!"

Neither of these cases, Overnight shipping for viagra, however, involved the Internet or sophisticated plots to communicate with others via email or technology to commit terrorist acts.  Which leads us to the question - should the Jihad Jane case be of concern or is it an anomaly.

Women are increasingly turning to the Internet, according to a number of studies.  According to the Pew Internet & American Life Project, what is viagra made from, 74% of women use the Internet (as of December 2009).  Other studies show that women are increasingly turning to the technology to conduct many daily activities.  A Burst Media study released in March 2009 found that 69.4% of women cited the Internet as the "primary source for information to keep their household running with information on family activities, recipes, Viagra for men(comments, health news, and entertainment listings."  Just over 62% used Internet to research products or services. Those statistics increased for women in the 35-54 range, with 71.1% an 66.6% using the Internet to help run their households and research products, sikkert viagra kj, respectively.

A survey Ostaa halvalla viagra, by BlogHer, a woman's blog network, in May 2009 found that approximately 53% of adult U.S. women participate in social media.  The survey found that more than 31.5 million participate weekly in social networks such as Facebook and MySpace, Canada viagra, 23 million blog, 16.8 million participate in message boards/forum; and 6.7 million conduct status update (e.g. Twitter).  Given the high rate in which social networking has increased over the past year, especially with more wireless devices now able to allow users to use social media interfaces, viagra germany India, these numbers surely have increased as well.

Of course, Discount on viagra, a mere increase in women online does not necessarily translate into women turning to terrorism.  We do know, however, that marketers and online behavioral advertising experts are increasingly exploring how to market and tailor material to women online.  Why wouldn't terrorist groups looking for new recruits do the same?  According to expert Gabriel Weimann in his 2006 book "Terror on the Internet: The New Arena, the new Challenges" - they already have.  Terrorist groups can narrow their message to a particular audience, Osta viagra, appealing to specific sympathies and touch points.

We know that terrorist organizations are also increasingly turning to the Internet to recruit and communicate.   According to a Council on Foreign Relations backgrounder on "Terrorists and the Internet, Viagra online pharmacy, " prepared by Eben Kaplan in January 2009, "terrorists increasingly are using the Internet as a means of communication both with each other and the rest of the world." Indeed, the number of terrorist organizations using the Internet has increased from 12 in 1998 to more than 4,800 this year, viagra seattle.

Kaplan notes that the "most effective way in which terrorists use the Internet is" for spreading propaganda and promoting sympathetic views of terrorist organizations.  As Weimann has noted, the Internet is a perfect tool for a new breed of terrorist, ostaa halvalla viagra. It is anonymous and uncontrollable.

In general, Viagra bloomington In, the trends and studies show that terrorist groups are going online and that the use of the Internet by those groups to spread propaganda and recruit potential terrorists is of concern.  The increase in the number of women online and the ease by which information can be tailored to specific demographics should be not be overlooked, especially with the access to populations of potential recruits who may not otherwise be allowed or recruited to attend terrorist training camps abroad.  Jihad Jane is likely not an anomaly but a troubling preview of the future of terrorism.

(Look to Friday's post to explore how the government can counteract these efforts and the challenges with fighting terrorism and propaganda online).

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Cheap viagra overnight delivery, Last week, Congress held a series of hearings on the December 25th attempted bombing.  More hearings will follow this week.   While there have been countless analysis and assessments of the hearings, here is my 17 syllable assessment:

Intelligence Failed

Technology Will Save Us

Send More Money, Please

On Friday, the United Kingdom raised its threat level from "substantial" to "severe."  The level, made by the U.K. government upon recommendations of the Joint Terrorism Analysis Center (JTAC), "means that a future terrorist attack is 'highly likely,' although not necessarily imminent." The UK threat level had been at substantial since last July, discount viagra online, when it had been lowered after two years at the "severe" level.  The level, previous to that, Como se corta la viagra, had shifted between severe and critical since the July 2005 attacks on the London Underground and on a Double Decker bus.  Interesting, U.K. officials were very quick to point out that its move was not related to the December 25th underwear bomber attack, though little information and lots of speculation as to the real reason has emerged, viagra prices.

Also on Friday, India raised its threat level, When does generic viagra come out, deploying air marshals and issuing a Civil Aviation Ministry security alert to airports and airlines for the "the stepping up of security arrangements at all concerned airports and airlines following inputs received from security agencies as well as the Ministry of Home Affairs." The alert was issued just days before tomorrow's celebration of Republic Day, which notes the country's adoption of a constitution (following its independence form the U.K.).

Also, on Friday, viagra gel for women, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano met with members of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in Geneva regarding aviation security standards.  IATA represents approximately 230 airlines and 90 percent of the world's air traffic. IATA raised several issues with the Secretary including industry operational capacities, better mechanisms for sharing passenger information, more input from airlines into security measures, and better international coordination between governments imposing security on the aviation industry, cheap viagra overnight delivery.

These announcements came before the weekend reporting of a new video recording from Osama bin Laden claiming responsibility for the Christmas Day attempted bombing AND reports of non-Arab female suicide bombers, Cheap viagra nz, carrying Western passports, possibly attacking the U.S.

Collectively, this past week of events and announcements provide insight into the various challenges faced by the U.S, phentermine viagra. and its global partners in their terrorist-fighting efforts, both here and abroad. Viagra order online, Here are some observations:

• Congressional Hearings: The hearings made clear that eight and a half years after 9/11, intelligence sharing, culture, and assessments still are lacking -  Commissions, is it easy to buy viagra in mexico, Administration reorganizations, and Congressional actions not withstanding.  Whether posed as failures or challenges, Over the table viagra, it is clear that some change is needed -- what that change is remains the question. Or is it simply the case that intelligence challenges are unfixable and as a nation we need to reassess how we work around them?

• International Efforts: Cheap viagra overnight delivery, Despite the "homeland" in homeland security, the actions in the U.K. and India remind us that terrorism is an international issue that links us all together.  Terrorism is not only a threat against the U.S., but one that has harmed a number of our allies.   Consequently, our efforts - both on the intelligence and counterterrorism fronts - have to be bigger than the U.S.  They also have to be bigger than the Inside-the-Beltway fighting over who "owns" terrorism as an issue within the political parties.

• Private Sector as Partner: The IATA-Napolitano meeting demonstrates that security is not  a government-only function.  The government's efforts affect the private sector, viagra, atlanta, ga, requiring the private sector to be a key partner in any security efforts.  Add the international angle, then this partnership becomes even more complicated and in need of constant communication.  While much of the attention relating to the December 25th bombings have focused on the airlines and aviation industry, Pfizer viagra, it would behoove the government and DHS to reach out (or better publicize) its efforts with others affected by security measures.  After all, it was the traveling public that diverted the underwear bomber attack.

• Terrorists Come in Different Sizes, Colors, and Genders: The threat of people who may not "look like Al Qaeda terrorists" is one that experts and Congress have raised on numerous occasions over the past several years.  In reality, viagra bahrain, none of us know what a terrorist looks like - we just know who has attacked us in the past.  That image is constantly evolving and changing as more attacks are thwarted and responsible individuals come to light.   What's becoming clear is that we cannot and should not rely on "profiling," as we will be left unprepared.

• Bin Laden as Boogie Man: Interestingly, Buy viagra online with overnight delivery, after Bin Laden took credit for the December 25th attack, a number of U.S. intelligence agencies stepped up to adamantly discredit the claims. Does it really matter if he was behind the attacks to the average American. Well, it may or may not but there are reasons for these strong assertions.  First, if Bin Laden wasn't involved, then there is evidence of a continued splintering of Al Qaeda and its strength, though such splintering could arguably make our terrorist-fighting efforts even more difficult.   Second,  if Bin Laden was involved, it is just a reminder that he is still out there and has not been captured or brought to justice.  Third, Bin Laden epitomizes terrorism to many average Americans and his omnipresence in all episodes that are terrorism make him an even more iconic figure to those who would follow him.

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Buy generic viagra, A new Congressional Research Service (CRS) report about international terrorism and transnational crime is available. Viagra cialis online,  You can find a copy of the 50+ page report at the Open CRS website.

From the summary of the report:

This report provides a primer on the confluence of transnational terrorist and criminal groups and related activities abroad, understand viagra. Buy single viagra, It evaluates possible motivations and disincentives for cooperation between terrorist and criminal organizations, variations in the scope of crime-terrorism links, overnight viagra, Organic viagra, and the types of criminal activities—fundraising, material and logistics support, viagra in kenia, Viagra directions, and exploitation of corruption and gaps in the rule of law—used by terrorist organizations to sustain operations. This report also discusses several international case studies to illustrate the range of crime-terrorism convergence and non-convergence, purchase viagra in indonesia, Free trial samples viagra, including Dawood Ibrahim's D-Company; the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC); the 2004 Madrid bombers; the Taliban; Hezbollah; Al Qaeda; the 2005 London bombers; Al-Shabaab; as well as known or alleged crime-terrorism facilitators such as Viktor Bout, Monzer Al Kasser, viagra contraindications, Viagra strengths weakness opportunities and threats, and Abu Ghadiyah. Policy considerations discussed in this report include possible tensions between counterterrorism and anti-crime policy objectives, implications for U.S, buy generic viagra. foreign aid, real viagra online, Viagra founder, gaps in human intelligence and analysis, the value of financial intelligence in combating the crime-terrorism nexus, viagra online pharmacy canada, Viagraa store, impact of digital and physical safe havens and ungoverned spaces, implications for nuclear proliferation, and effects of crime-terrorism links in conflict and post-conflict zones. Unless otherwise noted, this report does not address potential crime-terrorism links in the domestic or border environment.

If you're not familiar with the sometimes difficult to obtain CRS reports, they are worth checking out.  The research is conducted primarily for members of congress, so the analysis tends to be balanced.

The OpenCRS web site: "Congressional Research Reports for the People" (http://www.opencrs.com/) is one of just a few places to find CRS reports.

Unless you know someone in congress, of course.

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Acheter viagra bon marché, Happy New Year or Happy 20-10 if you prefer.  I would say welcome to a new decade but having read that there is a debate going on on whether the decade ended yesterday or a year from yesterday, I'll leave that one alone.

It has been a busy year on the homeland security front, best prices+viagra on the internet+rx, Girl viagra, starting with a new President and Secretary of Homeland Security and ending with lots of politics surrounding a Christmas Day thwarted terrorism attack.   For a  quick view of the top stories of 2009 and what to expect in 2010, here is an overview of what we can expect to be in and out on the homeland security front for 2010, cheap generic viagra from canada. Viagra lenge,

OUT	IN
Across the Spectrum, Praise for DHS Nominee Napolitano	Republican Criticism of Secretary Napolitano
Subpoenas for White House Gatecrashers Salahis To Appear on January 20th in Congress	Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab Prosecution in Federal Court
Privacy	Full-Body Scanners
System Failure (Again) of Intelligence Information Sharing	Connecting the Dots
Iraq	Afghanistan
Border Enforcement Only	Comprehensive Immigration Reform
Cybersecurity	Cybersecurity
H1N1	Next Pandemic?
Hold on Appointees at DHS	New TSA Administrator, buy brand viagra without prescription, Female viagra, Other Appointments
Homeland Security- Bipartisan Kinda?	The Blame Game

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From conference notes I took in Ankara several days ago, participant quotes about Islam, Al Qaeda, radicalization, homeland security, and perceptions of U.S. foreign policy.  This post closes with a reminder from 1848. Al Qaeda

• "Al Qaeda is present in anywhere from 60 to 90 different countries."
• "It used to be said that Al Qaeda wanted a few people killed, but a lot of people watching.  Now, Al Qaeda wants a lot of people dead and a lot of people watching."
• "Al Qaeda's biggest victory was getting 'Islam' and 'terrorism' used in the same sentence."

Islam

• "There is no religion untainted by terrorism."
• "There is no one version of Islam, no one Islamic culture.  So how can there be a class of cultures?"
• "There is nothing wrong with Islam.  But there are some things wrong with some Muslims.
• "The Qur'an, like any holy book, you open it and read it.  But it also reads you."
• "There is an Islam of Identity and an Islam of Truth.  Two competing identities will fight each other.  Two truths will cooperate."
• (An annoyed university professor after another speaker's presentation about Islam and homegrown terrorism) "I know we are in a seminar setting where there is free and open discussion.  And that is good. But it is important to remember that Islam and jihad are two sacred words to Muslims. And one should be careful using those words in conjunction with terrorism."
• "The primary responsibility for combating extremist ideology should fall on the shoulders of the Muslim community."
• (Islamic scholar citing  a quote from Muhammad) "You will kill each other over interpretations of the text."

Radicalization

• H.R. 1955 (cited by an Eastern European university professor) --  "The term ‘homegrown terrorism’ means the use, planned use, or threatened use, of force or violence by a group or individual born, raised, or based and operating primarily within the United States or any possession of the United States to intimidate or coerce the United States government, the civilian population of the United States, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives."
• "In the 1960s, left wing terrorists [in Europe] were motivated by communism.  We did not call them 'homegrown terrorists.' But that's what they were.  Why do we use that term now?  Is it a coded way to say 'Islamic terrorism?' "
• "There is very little evidence to support the claim that the internet is an effective channel for radicalization."
• "There are more than 5,000 radicalization websites; there are fewer than 100 counter radicalization websites."
• "Most of the online Al Qaeda stuff is dense and boring.  Very few people will plow through that [on line] material."
• Singapore has a strategy (described here) to rehabilitate those who have been radicalized.  It is based in part on the idea that those who have been radicalized "... are the faithful, but they have gone the wrong way.  They need to be taught the correct way."

Homeland Security

• "In some places in America, 'community policing' is evolving into 'homeland security policing.'"
• "Does the proliferation of and language about homeland security contribute to the production of terrorism?"
• "While there may be no universally accepted definition of terrorism, we can more easily agree on definitions of terrorist acts."
• "I am an advocate of homeland security.  My critics call me an 'agent of a repressive state.' I wear the label proudly."
• "What comes after 'homeland security?'  How about 'human security.'"

US Foreign Policy

• A Pakistani officer's suggestion for U.S. policy makers: "Take your soldiers out of Afghanistan.  Allow us to deal with the problem." [For another perspective, see Jessica's "Afghan Policy - Making A Presidency" immediately below this post.]
• A senior Pakistani army officer just back from the battlefield talking about not knowing who they are fighting. "It's not Al Qaeda or Taliban. We go into a village.  Everyone is friendly to us.  We leave and they start shooting...." Who is the enemy? "Someone is providing the enemy with massive quantities of powerful weapons," he said. He suspects "U.S. interests" - whatever that means. He said the US is making more enemies in Pakistan than friends. "Every death affects 10 people.  It's your soldiers dying. But it's our people and our children who continue to suffer. We are not like you where everyone can earn a living.  For us, one person earns a living for 10 people." He gives us 2 years to find a way out or "It will be worse for you than Vietnam." The man seemed a little sad, a bit desperate, a lot resigned. As if he were under a sentence of death.
• We were reminded that "The U.S. allowed Iran "to purchase a small [nuclear] ... research reactor for Tehran University. In 1967, Tehran's research reactor was fueled with highly enriched uranium provided by the United States."
• Eastern European army officer: "I am worried that [the U.S.] will go to war against Iran.  Then what will happen?  Israel will get involved.  Then the Arab world.  Then it will be 1914 Sarajevo all over again.  But this time with nuclear weapons."
• "If a nation bombs, say, one of your power stations, you will respond with full force.  But what is the proper response if someone uses a cyber attack to shut down your power station?"
• "Six failures in the War in terrorism: 1) Failure to capture Bin Laden and Zawahiri; 2) Afghanistan -- allowing Al Qaeda and the Taliban to re-infiltrate the country; 3) the strategic blunder that is the War in Iraq, with its 3 trillion dollars in costs to the U.S.; 4) the failure to prevent Al Qaeda from using organized crime to move money across international borders; 5) the failure to win hearts and minds of the Muslim world and its diaspora; 6) failure to maintain solidarity and optimize cooperation within the Coalition Against Terrorism."
• "Improved cooperation among nations and agencies -- even if not perfect -- is better than no cooperation."

Last Word "We have no eternal allies and we have no perpetual enemies.  Our interests are perpetual and eternal, and those interests it is our duty to follow."  Lord Palmerston, British Foreign Secretary (1848)

Tomorrow at 8pm, President Obama will be giving one of the most important speeches to date of his presidency at West Point.  In it, as has been widely reported today, he will be laying out his Administration's strategy for dealing with the crisis in Afghanistan. He met yesterday with his top advisers, including  Vice President Joe Biden, Admiral Mike Mullen, General James Cartwright and David Petraeus, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel.  He also spoke to General Stanley McChrystal, the top military commander in Afghanistan Ambassador Karl Eikenberry, as well as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, about his decision. He was scheduled to spend most of today calling world leaders telling them about his strategy and asking for continued and renewed support Afghanistan.  He already secured a commitment from Britain, with Prime Minister Gordon Brown announcing today to Parliament that the country would send 500 new troops to Afghanistan next month, bringing the United Kingdom's totals to 10,000 (9,500 troops plus 500 special forces).  France has commitment to maintain its presence, though has not indicated whether it will increase its numbers. Here is what to expect of President Obama tomorrow:

• A 40 minute speech outlining the strategy
• The deployment of an additional 30,000 to 35,000 U.S. troops, bringing the U.S. totals in the country to 100,000
• Increasing the number in the Afghan army to 240,000 and the Afghan police to 160,000 by October 2013
• An announcement that the U.S. will ask its NATO partners for 7,000 to 10,000 more troops (currently U.S. allies have 36,230 troops in country)
• An acknowledgement of the "limits" on U.S. resources -both in manpower and funding - for the war
• Some details of an exit strategy

It is not expected that the President will go into great details about the cost of the escalation or that he will touch upon the proposals by some in the Democratic party, led by House Appropriations Chairman David Obey, for a "war tax." Chairman Obey conveyed to CNN recently that he has to "to look at the entire federal budget, as chairman of the committee, for instance. I have to see what $400 billion or $500 billion, $600 billion, $700 billion, over a decade, for this effort, will cost us on education, on our efforts to build the entire economy." Chairman Obey's words sum up perfectly why tomorrow's speech is perhaps one of the most important speeches of this young Presidency.  With an ambitious domestic agenda, President Obama must convince the left tomorrow that spending on Afghanistan is the right thing to do and that his domestic priorities will not suffer.  At the same time, he has to convince the right (and most of the moderate middle) that he is tough enough on terrorism and that spending on both domestic and international priorities can be done simultaneously.  What the President says and how convincing he is tomorrow will set the tone for politics in D.C. for 2010.

I spent two days in Turkey last week. I had been asked to give a paper about "Homeland Security in the U.S. After 9/11" at a NATO counter-terrorism conference.  Somehow I had the impression it was supposed to be an academic paper. So that's what I wrote. Once the conference started, it took me about 15 minutes to realize none of the 60 participants would have much interest in hearing  about "U.S. homeland security as the emergent consequence of a complex adaptive system." When it was  my turn to present, I made up something else to talk about. I hobbled through my 30 minutes doing, I think, little lasting damage to U.S. -- NATO relations. ---------------------------- The homeland security vision outlined in the 2007 strategy says that "along with our partners in the international community" we "will work to achieve a secure homeland that sustains our way of life as a free, prosperous, and welcoming America." When Phil Palin wrote for this blog, he would occasionally write about the international part of homeland security. His perception was most people were not interested in that topic. Count me as one of those people. There's enough to focus on domestically, and one has only so much mental bandwidth. They say -- whoever "they" are -- travel broadens one.  I now consider myself getting a little broadened. ---------------------------- The conference included representatives from 19 countries.  What I thought would be an academic conference turned out to be a meeting filled (mostly) with young (30 to 40 year old) military officers primarily from eastern European and Asian nations -- Moldova, Ukraine, Romania, Azerbaijan, Jordan, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Georgia, Turkmenistan, Turkey, Bosnia, Singapore, and several other countries. ---------------------------- There also were half a dozen senior army officers from Pakistan. A few weeks ago they had been in the midst of the Afghanistan/Pakistan battlefields. I asked them who they were fighting, who the enemy was, and why they were fighting. I was told, in the rhythmic speech patterns of the Pakistani version of English, "Good question. We don't know. We are soldiers. We follow orders. We fight." The answer surprised me a little. Actually it surprised me a lot. ---------------------------- The conference was conducted in English. While not all the participants spoke English fluently, they all understood English quite well. (How is it the language of a small island in the upper latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere turned into the common tongue of the world? I'm sure there are books that explain how that happened. Maybe someone can suggest one of those books for my holiday reading.) ---------------------------- There was no doubt Turkey is at war. As we entered our hotel, we had to pass through metal detectors and our baggage was screened, just like the airport. The road to the conference was peppered with barbed wire enclaves, concrete blocks, sniper towers, and other martial artifacts. The meeting facility was in a compound, secured by seriously armed soldiers. (During one of the breaks, I watched a helmeted soldier, weapon at the ready position, looking straight ahead at the highway, about 100 yards in front of him.  I watched him for 5 minutes.  He did not turn his head once.) Terrorism is real not just for Turkey, but for practically all the states represented at the conference. (Heard anything lately about the Tartar separatists in Crimea?) In the world represented by the participants at the security conference, the reality of terrorism is substantially different from what I experience the "terrorist threat" to be in the United States. Despite the somewhat numbing title of the conference -- "NATO Advanced Research Workshop: Homeland Security Organization in Defense Against Terrorism" -- the officers were not at the conference to listen to research findings. They wanted something practical to take back to their own "homeland." ---------------------------- In subsequent posts I will summarize some of what I consider to be highlights of the conference, including  Al Qaeda's most significant success in the terrorism wars, the difference between Mohammad's Mecca and Medina periods and its impact on understanding the concept of jihad, Singapore's strategy for countering radicalization, and what comes next after "homeland security" is no longer in vogue. ---------------------------- I'll conclude this introductory post with two observations. First, some people may think the word "homeland" is an awkwardly Teutonic name for national security. But the term seems to be in the process of being adopted in both old and new Europe, and in parts of Asia. That surprised me. In the U.S., it is not unusual to be cynical about the phrase "homeland security." Elsewhere in the world, it symbolizes a new opportunity to shape -- for good or for ill --  security futures. Second, I am persuaded by people like Louise Richardson ("What Terrorists Want") and others that terrorism cannot be defeated. But, like the old Soviet Union, it can successfully be contained. I think there is substantial theoretical and historical support for that position. During my thirty minute presentation, I explained how in the United States "homeland security" is often used as a synonym for concern about fires, hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and other incidents -- in addition to terrorism -- that constitute "all hazards." The participants listened politely.  But they were not buying any of it.  For them, homeland security is only about terrorism.  And the people in that conference room want terrorism destroyed.

Following are some non-US media links reporting on unfolding events  in Pakistan. Chief of Army Staff Kayani writes to Mehsud tribal leaders. (DAWN) DAWN editorial on Wazirstan operation. "It will be difficult to know when ‘victory’ has been won." Tuesday  attack on International Islamic University.  Women and law faculty targeted. (BBC) Pakistan cuts deal with anti-American Militants (AP) Pakistan forces making progress (Aljazeera) Pakistan plans to overwhelm Taliban within two weeks (The Telegraph) It is my perspective that this operation is directly relevant to homeland security given what we think we know about the location of "core al-Qaeda" and the relationship between AQ and the Taliban in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and elsewhere.

The map above is provided by the BBC.  It shows real-time reports coming in from journalists and others on the ground as of 0900 Eastern on Saturday. You can follow local coverage at www.dawn.com.  This is one of the most trustworthy local English language media operations in Pakistan. Another source of value-added and usually reliable information is Bill Roggio at the Long War Journal (www.longwarjournal.org). Early reports are available from the New York Times, The Telegraph, and most mainstream media.  The last time the Pakistani military moved into Waziristan they were badly bruised.  When they withdrew, ancient antagonisms were given new ambition.  This time the army leadership realizes they are probably fighting for the survival of the Pakistani state.  This fight may also improve conditions for a successful outcome of the US/NATO operation in Afghanistan. In any case, a victory will be hard-won, failure will come at a steep price, and anything in-between will be excruciating. SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: With reports by Saeed Shah in Lahore, Emal Khan in Peshawar and Dean Nelson in London, The Telegraph has a helpful overview of the operation that was launched about midnight Saturday in Pakistan. 

The long-awaited army ground offensive had been delayed for weeks as army generals agonised over how the country would cope with the militant backlash which would inevitably follow an all-out assault in the Taliban's heartland.

The breakthrough came late on Friday night when, in a highly unusual move, the Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Kiyani, summoned the all the main opposition party leaders to a meeting at the home of the prime minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani.

There, they were asked for united support for what would be one of the army's most controversial operations: the use of overwhelming force against their own people – many of them tribal militants who had once been trained and encouraged by some of the leaders and generals now moving against them.

In an essay filed with The Telegraph from London, Ahmed Rashid, a long-time Pakistani journalist and author of The Taliban, could not be more stark regarding what is at stake in this fight.

Pakistan's militants are intent on nothing less than toppling the government, assassinating the ruling establishment, imposing an Islamic state and getting hold of Pakistan's nuclear weapons.

Regular readers of The Watch will recall that while I have long advocated Pakistani operations in Waziristan, I have not been surprised by the long delay.  If not for the audacious Taliban attacks of the last two weeks, I wonder if delay might have continued right into the winter snows.   M. Ilyas Khan, writing for the BBC from Islamabad, offers his explanation for the doubts that delayed Waziristan attack. SUNDAY UPDATE: Despite several reports of "heavy" Taliban resistance, the Sunday edition of DAWN includes,

Ground forces launched the three-pronged push on Saturday, starting a much-anticipated assault in a bid to crush networks blamed for some of the worst attacks that have killed more than 2,250 people over the past two years. ‘The resistance is not as stiff as we were expecting, maybe because we are still moving and not yet reached the strongholds of the Taliban like Kotkai, Makin, Ladha and Kanigurram,’ one military official told AFP.

Jay Shankar reporting for Bloomberg has about the best, if still spotty,  description of the tactical situation I can find.  A couple of hours after Mr. Shankar,  at about 9AM eastern, the BBC is providing a good update. Shortly before 2:00 eastern on Sunday Jane Perlez' update on the battle appeared in the New York Times.  She reports,

... the Taliban said part of their strategy was to encourage the military to progress deeper into the militant enclave in the center of South Waziristan, and then tie the soldiers down with hit-and-run tactics that would keep the soldiers in a protracted campaign in the inhospitable terrain over the winter. The government forces would be hit hard once they penetrated further into the mountains, the favorite fighting areas for the militants, a Taliban organizer who is not involved in the current fighting said by telephone on Sunday from Wana, the capital of South Waziristan.

Gen. David Petraeus, chief of US Central Command, will arrive in Pakistan on Monday for consultations. An official report on the first 24 hours of combat is available from the Pakistan Inter Services Public Relations website.  The government operated Associated Press of Pakistan also provides details difficult to find elsewhere. In a Saturday interview with CNN, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said,  "I'm very impressed with the commitment that the Pakistani government, both the civilian leadership and the military have made... They're very much focused on also going into the heartland of where the Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda are located and where these plots and these attacks are planned and directed."  The Secretary's comments came in the context of several questions related to US strategy in Afghanistan. (CNN Transcript via the Boston Globe.) Nick Meo has an interesting report in the Sunday Telegraph, Taliban's Afghan allies tell Barack Obama: "Cut us a deal and we'll ditch al-Qaeda'. MONDAY MORNING UPDATE From today's edition of DAWN:

The army says it has surrounded the militants in their main zone, a wedge of territory in the north of South Waziristan, and soldiers backed by aircraft and artillery are attacking from the north, southwest and southeast... the offensive could be its toughest test since the militants turned on the state, and the army will be hoping Afghan Taliban factions elsewhere in South Waziristan and in North Waziristan stay out of the fight.

Declan Walsh reporting for The Guardian from Islamabad writes,

Soldiers are attacking the Mehsud territory from Razmak in the north, Jandola in the east and Wana in the south. Officials estimate the drive will take a minimum of six weeks and could stretch through the winter. The non-Mehsud parts of South Waziristan, which are controlled by the rival Wazir tribe and border with Afghanistan, have not been affected.

Dean Nelson, writing in the Monday morning Telegraph, offers a sobering analysis of the situation facing Pakistan, including,

After the American-led offensive in Afghanistan that ousted Mullah Omar's Taliban regime in 2001, several key Taliban figures were protected by the Pakistan army, which still regards them as "strategic assets". Jalaluddin Haqqani and his son, Sirajuddin, are among them. They continue to organise attacks on Nato forces from Waziristan, unmolested or challenged by the Pakistan army.

The Pakistan military believes the Americans and the British will withdraw from Afghanistan – and when they do they will need old Taliban friends such as Haqqani once again to minimise the influence of its Indian enemy in its Afghan back yard. It is for this reason too that Islamabad has turned a blind eye to the presence of Mullah Omar's Quetta Shura, the ruling council that co-ordinates the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan from a hideout close to the Balochistan state capital.

These leaders are what the Pakistan military have in mind when they talk of "good" and "bad" Taliban – those who pose a threat to Pakistan and those who do not. Those who pose a mortal threat to British and American troops over the border can still be "good Taliban" in Pakistan.

It is the rise of the "very bad Taliban", such as Hakimullah Mehsud's pro-al-Qaeda Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) – which threatens both Pakistan and Nato forces in Afghanistan – that has brought the largest deployment of Pakistani troops to the tribal areas since the British Indian Army arrived in the Thirties to crush the Faqir of Ipi's jihad against the Raj.

Senator John Kerry is in Islamabad and Rawalpindi for discussions with Pakistani leadership (as is Gen. Petraeus).  This morning's Pakistani media is giving significant attention to Sen. Kerry's comments Sunday morning on State of the Union with John King.  Here's what DAWN is reporting:

Asked if he believed that a ‘giant US presence’ in Afghanistan would do more harm than good to Pakistan, the senator said: ‘there is a legitimate question about whether or not a certain number of troops, depending on their mission, might drive people into Pakistan, and thereby present further difficulties in the western part of that country or even fuel the extremism there.’

Three bits worth your attention as a decision approaches related to the  US  strategy for AfPak: The Sunday New York Times includes a piece by Scott Shane on Mullah Omar's remarkable resilience as leader of the Afghan Taliban.  This come back, how it was achieved, and what it really means is at the heart of current strategic considerations by the White House. Sunday's Washington Post reports on the competition between Pakistan and India for influence in Afghanistan.  Understanding this aspect of regional geopolitics is essential to accurately perceiving Pakistan's attitude vis-a-vis the Taliban. Please see Attack may Intensify India-Pakistan Proxy War  by Emily Wax. Late Sunday, Pakistan time, it sounds increasingly likely that sustained  military operations will soon begin in South Waziristan.  Yesterday's attack on Army General Headquarters and hostage taking, while supposedly aimed to deter, has instead spurred government authorization to claim the offensive.  See stories in DAWN, The Age, and The Telegraph.   While I claim no special insight, some of those who do claim expertise, wonder if -- once again -- the Taliban-in-Pakistan have overplayed.  They say many in Rawalpindi were using the White House decision-making process to delay taking the offense in Waziristan.  The same circles have exploited controversial elements of the Kerry-Lugar aid package to foster further distraction. Soon winter snows will provide another excuse for delay.  But now the attack on Army GHQ is seen as requiring a response.

This is the second in a series begun on Monday, September 7. Late on Tuesday, September 4, 2001 the President of Mexico, Vicente Fox, arrived in Washington D.C.  for a state visit.  On Wednesday key members of the US and Mexican cabinets met together.  Significant attention was given to developing a bilateral approach to immigration reform. President Bush cautioned, "This is a complex issue," he said. "It's going to take a while to bring all the different interests to the table. But we've made good progress so far." But -- with White House blessing -- the Mexican President pressed hard for quick action on immigration. "We must, and we can, reach an agreement on migration before the end of this very year, which will allow us before the end of our respective terms to make sure that there are no Mexicans who have not entered this country legally in the United States and that those Mexicans who have come into the country do so with the proper documents," Fox said.  (See more from CNN.) CNN also reported, "He and Bush also are expected to discuss anti-drug efforts and a shared border-control program."  On Thursday, September 6 President Fox addressed a joint session of Congress.  Included in his remarks:

Take for example our common struggle against the scourge of drugs. It should be clear by now that no government, however powerful, will be able to defeat on its own the forces of transnational organized crime that lie behind drug trafficking. Intense cooperation is required to confront this threat, and trust is certainly a prerequisite of cooperation. This is why, since I took office last year, Mexico has enhanced its cooperation with U.S. authorities. We have arrested key drug kingpins and have extradited drug traffickers wanted by the United States Justice. However, much more needs to be done. Trust will be crucial to enhance intelligence and information-sharing between both governments. We're committed to becoming a full partner with the United States in the fight against drugs... 

That night Lou Dobbs was in the CNN anchor's chair for Kelly Wallace's report on the speech and related news:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm willing to consider ways to -- for a guest worker to earn green card status. And yet I fully recognize there are a lot of people who've stood in line, who've said I'll abide by the laws of the United States. And we're trying to work through a formula that will not penalize the person who's chosen the legal route and at the same time recognize the contribution the undocumented has made.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WALLACE: Another big issue: conservative critics who believe President Fox's plan would basically reward those immigrants who broke the law to enter the U.S. No one, Lou, really expecting a big agreement by the end of this year, but everyone believing President Fox's visit has increased the urgency on an issue Congress and the president likely to focus on in the months ahead.

Lou, back to you.

DOBBS: Kelly, very comforting language used by the president, talking about guest workers, not referring to these people as illegal aliens, but rather undocumented workers. All of this, I presume, designed to soften some of the tension between the two men over the issue and also to, perhaps, assuage the Latino voting public.

WALLACE: Well, certainly -- you certainly know, Lou, that right off the bat the administration was very concerned that it was sort of being accused of supporting blanket amnesty for Mexican immigrants living in the U.S. illegally. President Bush saying he is against the "A" word.

And so you do see him talking about a guest worker program; maybe finding some middle ground. Allowing more Mexicans to come to the U.S., part of this guest worker program, to work here and, of course, to have some benefits and send that money back to Mexico. It's a way of some middle ground. Obviously a big political issue that -- the fight is just ahead.

Lou, back to you.

Lou did not comment and moved on to the next story, a 200-point plunge in the Dow Jones.  But I wonder if this is when Lou Dobbs began to perceive the potential for exploiting the "A word"? On September 10, 2001 we were actively engaged in seeking innovative bipartisan and bilateral solutions to immigration, drug enforcement, and border issues between the United States and Mexico.  Lou Dobbs was not yet pandering for viewers. Should we repudiate such September 10 thinking?  Almost eight years to the day after President Fox landed in Washington, his successor reported to the Mexican Congress on his intense struggle against murderous drug cartels.  On September 2, 2009, CBS News reported, "'The past year has been a different year,' said President Felipe Calderón during his third state of the nation address Wednesday. Different must be a euphemism for horrible. This was bound to be a difficult year to summarize for Mexico’s beleaguered President. In the past year he has been battered with several challenges: the world economic recession, the influenza outbreak, diminishing oil resources, the worst drought the country has seen in years, escalating drug violence, topped by the world’s belief that Mexico is ungovernable." Instead of repudiating September 10 thinking, we might mourn the opportunities lost in the years since.

Over drinks late last week a senior military man -- and long-time friend -- surprised me by insisting it was time to cut a deal and (mostly) get out of Afghanistan.  All I did was stammer, "I'm not there yet."  In this morning's New York Times, Nick Kristoff is quoting a neighbor of mine to make a similar argument.  Kristoff concludes, "The solution is neither to pull out of Afghanistan nor to double down. Rather, we need to continue our presence with a lighter military footprint, limited to training the Afghan forces and helping them hold major cities, and ensuring that Al Qaeda does not regroup. We must also invest more in education and agriculture development, for that is a way over time to peel Pashtuns away from the Taliban." Kristoff's column reports on -- and to my reading -- may soften, the informed opinion of several national security and intelligence heavy-weights regarding the right choice for Afghanistan.  His sources include a neighbor (two hollers over and atop a taller mountain). In his blog, my neighbor,  Howard P. Hart writes, "Given the realities of Afghan society, and the nature of the insurgents we are fighting, I believe that President Obama’s new strategy is a guaranteed recipe for failure, and is, in fact, self-defeating. While in theory we will lose fewer troops by abandoning aggressive search-and-kill missions, we will be setting up targets across the country that are perfectly suited to the insurgent’s attack capabilities." But what grabs my attention -- in addition to reading this from a neighbor whom I respect -- is Howard's argument that a different strategy is better suited for dealing with AQ in Pakistan.  In the same blog post he writes,

Al-Qaeda has long since fled to Pakistan, where it is now firmly ensconced. Al-Qaeda should be fought in Pakistan, not in Afghanistan, where we are actually fighting the Taliban and other insurgents. IF we were to abandon Afghanistan and small units of al-Qaeda were to return, they could easily be attacked by raids by U.S. Special Forces troops based in Pakistan. We do not need to fight a major war against a completely unrelated enemy – the Taliban and other insurgent groups – in order to fight and defeat al-Qaeda.

As regular readers of  The Watch have noticed (and sometimes complained about), I give significant attention to Pakistan -- especially FATA. But I  seldom deal with Afghanistan.  This is largely because the region's homeland security threats are, to my way of thinking, mostly concentrated across the Durand Line from Afghanistan. But my general sense has been we must persist in Southern and Eastern Afghanistan in order to maximize our impact against AQ and related targets in Pakistan.   My well-informed neighbor -- and others -- disagree. Writing from far outside our neighborhood, Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid, offers something between what we think-we-know of the McChrystal plan and what Kristof and Howard suggest.  In today's Washington Post, Rashid writes,

To emerge from this mess with even moderately credible Afghan partners will be difficult, but it has to be done. (The Americans could start by forcing Karzai to create a government that includes all leading opposition figures.) Without a partner, the United States becomes nothing but an occupying force that Afghans will resist and NATO will not want to support. Holbrooke's skills as a power broker will be sorely tested, with his past successes in the Balkans a cakewalk compared with this perilous path. The Obama administration can come out of this quagmire if it aims low, targets the bad guys, builds a regional consensus, keeps the American public on its side and gives the Afghans what they really want -- just the chance to have a better life. There is no alternative but for the United States to remain committed to rebuilding a minimalist state in Afghanistan. Nothing less will stop the Taliban and al-Qaeda from again using Afghanistan and now Pakistan to wreak havoc in the region and around the world.

My neighbor has me second-guessing my prior position.  For this, I thank him.  But Rashid makes an argument that still makes sense to me.  It is not my decision to make, thank God.  But in the next few weeks "we" (the sovereign plural of a republic) will choose... and after we choose, it will not be possible to retrieve the options available today.

--+--

Prior posts on this topic in The Watch include:

Pashtun pride pressures US plans (August 30)

Can we take advantage of our adversary's arrogance? (June 10)

You, me, Obama, Osama, and Omar: Climbing higher into the Hindu Kush (March 30)

   Secretary Napolitano with Prime Minister Gilani As Secretary Napolitano began her day in Islamabad, a suspected US drone attack is said to have killed several Taliban leaders in Pakistan and taken out an insurgent training and communications node. While US assets targeted South Waziristan, the Pakistani Air Force was pounding North Waziristan. The Pakistani military operation along the Afpak border received a positive assessment from a typically skeptical British observer.  But meanwhile in Washington a respected Pakistani commentator says the Pakistani army is not yet ready for a full offensive  in South Waziristan. A principal target of current US and Pakistani operations along the Afpak border is Baitullah Mehsud.  Yesterday afternoon the Washington Times reported, "Pakistan's top Taliban leader, Baitullah Mehsud, is buying children as young as 7 to serve as suicide bombers in the growing spate of attacks against Pakistani, Afghan and U.S. targets." (A late afternoon July 3 report in the Washington Post provides a good overview of the same issues covered in the early morning post above.) UPDATE: CNN is reporting on the Secretary's meetings in Pakistan's capital: The Pakistani government's crackdown on the Taliban has helped U.S. security, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said Friday. "The key concept is, you just can't start protecting the homeland at the borders of the United States," she said. Napolitano said she was in Pakistan to discuss with Pakistani leaders the fight against terrorism, as well as how the two countries share information. SECOND UPDATE:  The Pakistan newspaper DAWN is reporting: Pakistan on Friday has again called for fencing its border with Afghanistan to effectively stop illegal crossings especially of militants to its territory. The government of Afghanistan has consistently opposed the erection a fence on the border between two countries. The issue was discussed during a meeting between Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani and the US Secretary for Homeland Security Ms Janet Napolitano who called on him at the Prime Minister’s House this afternoon. (Read more coverage of the Secretary's meetings in Islamabad by DAWN.)

Yesterday the Senate unanimously passed a measure that would triple non-military assistance to Pakistan (S. 962).  The House passed similar  legislation on June 11 (H.R. 1886).  A conference committee will now seek to resolve differences in the legislation, especially in regard to tougher House provisions for financial auditing and accountability. The Senate measure provides $1.5 billion per year for five years in humanitarian and economic support. Since mid-April roughly 2 million people have been displaced as a result of operations against neo-Taliban forces in the Swat valley.  Tens of thousands more are streaming out of South Waziristan where a sustained fight against Taliban, neo-Taliban, and al-Qaeda is expected in the next several days. "In Pakistan, some 300,000 refugees are living outdoors, in tents or similar structures, said Michael Kocher, vice president of international programs for the International Rescue Committee." According to CNN, "extreme heat plagued Pakistan, with temperatures in May and June soaring past 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius). The heat is escalating the discomfort for many." "People are living in cramped situations, often unsanitary situations, and it's very hot," Kocher said. "In many places, there is not enough clean water or adequate sanitation. Heat exacerbates that problem." The refugee -- or internally displaced persons (IDP) -- camps are, however, only the tip of a sharp spear.  According to a report released yesterday by Refugees International, "the vast majority of the displaced – over 80 percent – are staying with host families who are quickly running out of resources. One aid organization has even reported 'pockets of starvation'.” The same report notes, not surprisingly, that "Jihadist groups" have begun to fill the assistance vacuum.  Taliban and their allies are providing food, shelter, and medical assistance where the Pakistan government, United Nations, and others are not.  The Taliban is also seeking to intimidate NGOs that are in place to leave. For years the United States has urged Pakistan to be more aggressive against our adversaries along the Afpak border. These include several who have specifically threatened attacks on the United States.  Since mid-April, there has been a substantive change. Pakistan is fighting hard.  Our adversaries over-reached and they are paying the price. But for our resilient foe, every crisis presents an opportunity.  The more Pakistanis who are displaced, the longer they are displaced, and the more difficult their displacement, the more opportunity is given our adversaries. The annual budget of Pakistan, adopted Saturday, is roughly $36 billion.  Another $1.5 billion in non-military assistance from the US is not insignificant. But unless this funding is deployed quickly and effectively there is a real danger it will be entirely too little, too late. The House and Senate bills, hyperlinked above, are worth reading.  Each are well-crafted pieces of legislation.  The legislative  requirements for audits and reports are entirely reasonable, if at times just a tad anal.  There is a very real concern the funds will be squandered by bureaucracy, corruption, and the purchase of military toys. (For Pakistan's track-record in this regard, please read Pakistan on the Brink by Ahmed Rashid.) But I hope and pray the House and Senate conferees have the ability, "to accept that which cannot be changed; courage to change that which can be changed, and (have the) wisdom to know the one from the other."  And to do so with remarkable alacrity.

Yesterday, June 15, the United States and the European Union issued a joint statement on Guantanamo and "future counterterrorism cooperation."  Most media are focusing on the implications for placing Guantanamo detainees.  It is reported that EU member states have agreed to receive fifty current detainees. The Luxembourg declaration is also a mile marker for  negotiations that began even before the inauguration to ensure closer cooperation between Europe and the United States on a whole range of CT issues.  The Guardian reports, European diplomats are "saying that the aim was also to come up with a new transatlantic strategy on counter-terrorism, as well as on a broader joint agenda for fighting international organised crime, intelligence sharing, international travel security and data protection. The ambitious aims are bedevilled by legal wrangles and mismatches between US and European legal systems, with Europeans, for example, enjoying higher standards of privacy protection." Negotiations are continuing on a comprehensive CT agreement between the US and EU.  Some reports suggest progress is sufficient that it may be ready by the end of the year. Yesterday's agreement set-out principles on which the fuller agreement is expected to be based. "Efforts to combat terrorism should be conducted in a manner that comports with the rule of law, respects our common values, and complies with our respective obligations under international law, in particular international human rights law, refugee law, and humanitarian law. We consider that efforts to combat terrorism conducted in this manner make us stronger and more secure." The potential for greater cooperation between the US and EU is underlined by the first-ever EU-Pakistan summit which will begin tomorrow in Brussels. Taliban and al-Qaeda present a shared threat to the US, EU, and Pakistan. US military operations on the Afpak border (and incursions across the border) make a crucial contribution to containing -- and eventually eliminating -- this node of terrorist planning, training, and operations. The same US operations complicate bilateral relations with Pakistan in a way that limits Washington's ability to contribute to shaping a post-Taliban/after-al Qaeda future.  Greater involvement by the EU in supporting democratic and social resilience in Pakistan can pick up where the US cannot go. In an interview with the Financial Times, "Shah Mahmood Qureshi, the (Pakistani) foreign minister... said Pakistan would need up to $2.5bn (€1.8bn, £1.5bn) in emergency relief and for long-term reconstruction of the Swat valley and the surrounding region, once the fighting between government troops and militants, now in its final stage, had ended. That figure compares to the $1bn in aid initially estimated by government officials. The warning comes as Pakistan widens its military offensive to other areas suspected of providing a haven to the Taliban, such as the Waziristan tribal region along the border with Afghanistan." The US and EU can benefit from collaboration in many other areas -- intelligence sharing, border controls, planning, training,  joint exercises, and more -- but especially as Pakistan's military begins operations in South Waziristan, the potential in terms of this trilateral relationship is especially important.

Map of Northwest Pakistan, from the BBC Seven weeks ago Taliban allies in the Swat valley over-reached.  After accepting a deal with the Pakistani government that consolidated their religious and civil authority, they attempted to extend that authority to a neighboring district. In early May the newspaper DAWN explained, "the Swat militants apparently shot themselves in the foot by going back on their commitment on the peace deal even after their main demand for the Sharia regulation was met, virtually rejecting Pakistan’s constitution and its superior courts, and continuing barbaric killings and other activities to enforce their own brand of Sharia that only caused revulsion at home and abroad." Since then the Pakistani military has largely been successful in reasserting central government authority in a region where the government had long seemed  irrelevant. On June 1 Taliban allies kidnapped nearly 400 students who were being convoyed to Bannu.  The military responded quickly rescuing most.  But the audacity of the attack shocked Pakistani public opinion. Monday the Pakistani military rolled into Bannu, a district on the eastern edge of North and South Waziristan. This morning the Pakistani military began anti-Taliban operations. From Bannu the supposed hideouts of Osama bin-Laden and others along the Afpak border are comparatively close-at-hand.  Several reports suggest that is where the fight will go next.  Bill Roggio at The Long War Journal provides a great tactical brief. Last Friday a suicide bomber killed 35 in a Shiite mosque in Haya Gai in Pakistan's Dir district.  That afternoon local people retaliated against local Taliban leadership.  According to the BBC, "Officials say they have been joined in their fight by residents from two villages and a town. There are now about 2,000 of them fighting 200 surrounded Taliban militants."  The Pakistani military is sending support. (More from the New York Times.) Yesterday a truck bomb decimated the Pearl Continental Hotel in Peshawar, the principal city of Northwest Pakistan with a population of 3 million. It is too soon to be sure of how this will influence public and official attitudes in Pakistan.  But given recent examples, we might expect further stiffening of the spine. A stiff spine will not be sufficient.  An overly stiff response might even be counter productive. The challenge is significant.  The battle for Buner continues.  Karachi, the largest city in Pakistan, is convulsed in violence of its own. The hundreds-of-thousands of internally displaced will create serious new problems  The economic, social, and political character of Pakistan is innately fractious. At the end of April, Gen. Petraeus was, we are told,  predicting the Pakistani state could be overthrown in two weeks.  Since then Taliban arrogance has motivated unprecedented political and military action.   Many long-time observers (and here) suggest that what has transpired is a real turning point. For many years the terrorists have tried -- and often succeeded -- to tempt us into over-reaction. They have used our own strengths against us. Osama bin-Laden has behaved as a master of Ju-no-kata.  He has tried to coach others in the subtle form of converting us into our own worst enemy.  Not every student was attentive and their master is increasingly isolated. In recent weeks the al Qaeda-Taliban alliance in Pakistan has overestimated its own strength and stumbled badly. We can hope for more stumbles and help Pakistan finish the job.  But we might also consider the counsel of Kano Jigoro, the founder of Judo, "We should remember that our bodies should not be stiff, but free, quick and strong. We should be able to move properly in response to our opponent's unexpected attacks. We should also not forget to make full use of every opportunity during our practice to improve our wisdom and virtue." UPDATES: Pakistan vows to fight Taliban 'until the end' (AFP) Gains in Pakistan Fuel Pentagon Optimism for Pursuing Al-Qaeda (Washington Post)

Army, people united against Taliban: Zardari (Daily Times)