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The Sunday business section of The New York Times featured a long article by Peter S. Goodman looking for lessons in the ruins of the failed crisis management efforts of Toyota, BP and Goldman Sachs (among others). Sadly, the piece overlooked the most important lesson we could take from these debacles: Look before you leap. Goodman's informants, like too many others, describe the jobs of crisis management practitioners from the limited perspective of what happens after the crisis become apparent to others. This narrative suggests effective crisis managers do little more than help their clients or bosses face facts, accept responsibility and chart a clear and direct course to safe ground. For this reason alone, they start from the flawed premise that the primary objective of crisis management is to protect -- or failing that to restore -- the tarnished image of the poor company and its executive whose best laid plans somehow went awry despite their best intentions. To the extent that this position represents crisis management orthodoxy, it casts the affected company in the position of victim not villain. Sadly, most crises cannot be resolved by sinking to such simple tactics, especially when real victims are left with little recourse but to lick their wounds and hope someone will come along to make them whole again sooner rather than later. Crisis management is not -- or should not be -- a separate and distinct discipline occupied predominantly by flaks and fixers. Clearly, many who labor under this label have little more to recommend them than their experience spinning for others or keeping them out of courtrooms rather than actually taking responsibility. Real crisis managers though are closely related to risk managers and emergency managers, both of whom take a comprehensive approach to their fields, which requires them to consider ways of preventing and mitigating harm before things start to become unwound.

Emergency managers think in terms of risk reduction, readiness, response and recovery (or prevention/mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery if you prefer). Crisis managers would do well to think in terms of awareness, ambiguity, adaptation and accountability. Conventional crisis management as practiced by spinmeisters and pettifoggers focuses on the external side of the crisis management diagram. Crisis managers cannot, however, afford to overlook internal dynamics any more than they can afford to worry so much about what people will think tomorrow that they fail to do something constructive today. As such, crisis managers can play important roles helping organizations design effective monitoring systems that anticipate problems, amplify weak signals, appreciate their salience and ask (or inquire) actively what can go wrong and what should be done to avoid or control it. When problems emerge, effective crisis managers seek to promote and institutionalize organizational learning from the outset rather than rushing to deflect responsibility or avoid accountability. Goodman and his experts wonder whether the problem is not what people could have done to avoid the problems they created, but whether the consequences of bad decisions are sometimes so riveting or revolting they make it impossible to change the subject. If that's true in any way whatsoever, then those responsible for the decisions that led to these disasters should have considered such possibilities before things started going wrong. How, you wonder, could anyone have foreseen such devastating effects from the actions of these companies and their executives? In hindsight, as Goodman and his experts note, it is all too clear that all these situations were both foreseeable and avoidable. But let's give them the benefit of the doubt, if only as a thought experiment, to see what would happen if we assumed everyone did everything they could to prevent these disasters from happening. Why should this have stopped them from asking what they would do if their assumptions proved incorrect? This is not such a far-fetched idea. Building codes require designers to consider the effects of earthquakes, which people cannot prevent. But they also require designers to protect a building from fire, which the occupants presumably can control. That's right, we do not allow people to assume they will always be successful avoiding or controlling fire hazards. We require people to pursue fire prevention measures diligently. At the same time, we still require the same people to take reasonable precautions against the outbreak of fire so people can escape without injury and any fire can be controlled before spreading to the property of others. We apply very similar logic to many other complex risks. When the stakes are big enough or the consequences terrible enough we ask people to do everything they can to avoid a problem while still taking precautions against its occurrence. Often these added investments prove unnecessary, but we rarely consider them entirely unwise. Any company, institution or individual unable or unwilling to take a comprehensive approach to managing its crisis exposure leaves no one else to blame. We cannot blame the regulator or the consumer. We cannot assume bad things sometimes happen to good people. We can only make sure we hold good people accountable for becoming better people when they make big mistakes so others won't have to suffer the same fate in the future.

UPDATE: Wednesday, August 18: Recently a few of us have been discussing whether there is any benefit distinquishing between a disaster and a catastrophe and a cataclysm.  Too roughly, a disaster is very bad.  A catastrophe is a disaster from which there will be no real recovery.  In our personal lexicon, a cataclysm is an almost total washing away of what previously existed. It is, perhaps, appropriate that the Greek kataklysmós means a thorough, complete, degenerating flood. Desperation grows over Pakistan flood damage (New York Times) Pakistan floods could sweep away weak government (CBS News) Taliban will not be allowed to take advantage of crisis (DAWN) Following is the original post from Sunday, August 15.  This was intended to build on the two prior posts. Asian Jet Stream as of August 15 "Weather Underground Forecast for Monday, August 16, 2010. A long front that will initially extend from the eastern Sea of Japan through southeast China will be the biggest weather producer in eastern Asia as it moves slowly eastward throughout the day. Steady precipitation is expected through southeast China, but farther inland than the normally hard hit areas due to the monsoons. The monsoons themselves will be weak in nature with only scattered showers and thunderstorms likely along the southeast coast of China." See current conditions and forecast for Peshawar, Pakistan. See current conditions and forecast for Moscow, Russia. See current conditions and forecast for Gansu, China From Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog:

"The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the midlatitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history."  MORE.

The historical record suggests these events are atypical, but recur.  We cannot precisely predict time and place, but we can anticipate the recurrence of such extremities.  We cannot prevent.  But we can make choices that exacerbate or mitigate the experience of harm when they do recur. Monday Update: Pakistan: Authorities warn of new floods as heavy rain falls (DAWN) Pakistan: Food related inflation (DAWN) China: Torrential rains forecast for August 16 and 17 (AFP) Chinese economy surpasses Japan (Financial Times) Russia: Fires shrink (Wall Street Journal) Gale force winds hit St. Petersburg (Moscow Times) More bread for your daily loaf (The Sun) Tuesday Update: Pakistan: Mother of all disasters: Second wave of death feared (Sydney Morning Herald) China: Torrential rains leave 36 dead, 23 missing (Xinhua) Russia: Industry output growth slows in record heat (Reuters)

Flooding in Pakistan, picture by Reuters Further to my Thursday post (immediately below), comments on it, and unfolding events, please access the following updates:

20 million homeless in Pakistan (Guardian) Cholera confirmed in Pakistan flood disaster (AP) A long view of Indus River flooding (BBC) Heavy rains continue in China (Xinhua) Shanghai temperature hits 104 degree F (40 degrees C) (China People's Daily) Yuan has biggest weekly drop in 20 months (Bloomberg) Russian fires shrink, consequences grow (Wall Street Journal) Russia Wheat: Drought has reduced yield by 40 percent in key production regions (USDA, 1.08 MB download) Residents save water in wake of Ames flood (Des Moines Register) Consolidated coverage of all Iowa flooding (Des Moines Register)

Not to be a nag, but all these situations are white -- not black -- swans.  Each of these "natural" disasters have been amplifed by human choice.  Each has -- at least local and perhaps broader -- catastrophic potential.  Are we watching the way a white swan might evolve into a black swan?

A persistent drought and intense heat has brought huge wildfires to the Moscow region, killing off  twenty percent or more of the Russian wheat harvest.  The international price of wheat doubled between late June and last week. (This week the market is a bit confused). A super-flood has inundated the breadbasket of Pakistan directly affecting 14 million people. According to Al-Jazeera, "The prices of basic items such as tomatoes, onions, potatoes and squash have in some cases quadrupled in recent days, putting them out of reach for many Pakistanis." China has experienced significant flooding in several regions since late May, and more heavy rain is predicted.  In July Chinese food costs increased 6.8 percent as a result of flood-related supply problems. The floods have also worsened conditions in already hungry North Korea. The geopolitical and broader economic consequences remain to be seen. These extreme events -- plus the earthquake in Haiti and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami -- are sometimes categorized as "low probability, high consequence" events.  That's not quite right.  More accurately these are "low frequency, high consequence" events. 8.0 earthquakes are infrequent. But in any given year on a global basis such earthquakes are highly probable.  The probability of such an earthquake devastating California increases slightly each day.   In homeland security -- and other disciplines -- we are helpfully encouraged to consider what Nassim Nicholas Taleb has tagged as Black Swan events.  Mr. Taleb explains a Black Swan has three attributes:

First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.

What is happening in the Indus River valley has also happened in the Yellow River valley and will recur in other river valleys.  Last night flooding in Iowa killed one and displaced hundreds. What is happening outside Moscow occurs each year outside (occasionally inside) San Diego and Melbourne.  Earlier this week California firefighters contained a large fire near Banning. Such disasters should be a regular expectation because historical events convincingly point to their recurrence.   Unfortunately, our sense of history seems to have a half-life of about ten days.  As a result, we are perpetually surprised. In a new history, Empires of Food: Feast, Famine and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations, the authors outline three fundamental policy errors that recur in history, across several civilizations, and which may characterize our contemporary situation:

In the modern world, we've made the same three mistakes that the Romans made and the Mayans made. And that first mistake is that we, too, have come to depend on fertile topsoil. And we have ignored the fact that the topsoil is eroding. Now, we've masked our problems with topsoil with chemical fertilizer, but that just swaps one dependency for another. The second mistake we've made is the fact that we've come to depend on harvests, which we get from relatively nice climates. And the late 20th century was pretty good, generally speaking, for growing season - say, between 1930 and 1990, there were no major climatic shocks in the world's bread baskets. Things are likely, however, to change. The third mistake we've made in the modern age, which also echoes the historic antecedents, is that we have caused our farmers to grow economically efficient by specializing in one or two products. And while this makes wonderful economic sense, it's terrible ecology. (August 7 NPR interview)

Patterns are perceived over time and space.  The scope of time and space available to us is key to the accuracy of our perceptions.   But... regardless of this scope, we are strongly inclined to favor direct over indirect perception.  It requires unusual effort to apply indirect knowledge as vigorously as direct experience.

I have only seen one black swan.  From a distance it was an beguiling creature.  I have  had, in contrast, several unhappy encounters with white swans. They are aggressive, mean, and smelly animals.  I understand -- and accept -- Mr. Taleb's conceptual distinction.  But in the flesh, a white swan may not be so different from a black swan. 

If I am attentive and as well-prepared as possible to meet a white swan -- or a flock of white swans -- I should be a bit better prepared for the black swan as well.

For further consideration:

Is another food crisis coming? (Time)

Chinese economy slows (China People's Daily) and related: US stocks fall (Wall Street Journal)

Russian fires, Pakistan floods may be linked (National Geographic)

Pakistan floods: An emergency for the West (The Telegraph)

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You should have Seen Coming and How to Prevent Them

Friday Update:

Floods likely to have destroyed crops worth $1 billion (DAWN) (Pakistan)

Devastating power of China floods (BBC)

Ames faces water crisis (Des Moines Register)

Russia's peatland fires seen burning for months (Reuters)

Sunday Update:

In weather chaos: A case for global warning (Front Page of Sunday New York Times)

 

Tara is a helpful mnemonic for transfer Buy viagra no prescription, , avoid, reduce, accept: the principal risk management options.

Years ago oil consumers, Viagra online kopen, oil producers, policy-makers, and industry regulators decided the need for oil -- and our understanding of the risks -- was sufficient to no longer avoid the risks associated with ultra-deep water drilling. 

But in several subsequent decisions related to the Deepwater Horizon platform, Washington WA Wash. , BP and its financial and management partners accepted more risk than they fully realized.  Applying the Cynefin framework (below), Viagra farmacia a buon mercato, they almost certainly mistook profound complexity as being merely complicated.  In a few benighted instances they may even have been deluded into thinking their task was simple.  (Please see Chris Bellavita's Tuesday post for more on the Cynefin framework.  Chris has also written a related piece in the Homeland Security Affairs Journal.)

Because of this failure to accurately assess context, BP and others -- including regulators --  accepted (or, more accurately, online viagra, transferred) more risk than consciously intended.  Regulators did not require lease-holders to give specific attention to catastrophic risk, Order viagra cod, did not effectively enforce the limited risk readiness included in lease provisions, and failed to ensure that risk readiness involved active participation, collaboration, viagra prices, and deliberation by key stakeholders. Minimal action was taken to reduce risk.  There was a paucity of sense-making, Ordering viagra overnight delivery, a lack of full awareness, and a dangerously myopic view of reality.

In a complex situation the Cynefin framework advocates a process of probing, South Dakota SD , sensing, Goedkope viagra apotheek, and responding.  This probing is similar to Elinor Ostrom's participation/collaboration/deliberation.  The emerging evidence suggests that even among those physically proximate on the Deepwater Horizon probing and sensing were constrained.  No wonder we were not prepared to respond.

Once the latent complexity of the situation was exposed through death, injury, order viagra without prescription, and destruction, Viagra online kopen, there is a question as to whether BP and others recognized the transition from complexity to chaos.  In any case, because they (we) had not fully engaged the complexity of the context, they (we) were not ready to act, bestill viagra online, sense, Buy cheap viagra online, and respond  to the chaos.  We  were ill-prepared to manage the risk we had unthinkingly accepted.

Once BP, the Coast Guard, Maine ME Me. , the White House and all of us recognized the unfolding chaos we began to behave more realistically.  As we behaved in a manner better calibrated to reality we recognized some aspects of our situation as simple, Jotta viagra verkossa, some as complicated, some as complex, and some as chaotic.  Depending on the reality of the context, osta alennus viagra, many of us -- perhaps even most of us -- eventually behaved appropriately to the context.

But that "eventually" allowed millions of gallons of toxic oil to gush for over eighty days.  In our decisions, non-decisions, and especially in our unintentional obliviousness  we essentially transferred the risk of ultra-deepwater drilling to the ecology and economy of the Gulf of Mexico.., buy viagra no prescription. Ordering viagra no prescription, and to those creatures -- human and not -- who are  especially in relationship with the Gulf.

Intellectual and operational frameworks, such as Tara and Cynefin, cheapest viagra online,  are helpful.  But all of them depend on the users' ability to engage reality.  Every framework I know depends on adapting appropriately to context.  The user must be attentive. Viagra online stores, In Buddhism and Hinduism Tara is also a manifestation of compassion.  There are several aspects of Tara.  The Green Tara shown below is especially associated with liberation from fear and protection from material threats.  Tara is widely understood to be particularly effective in helping us avoid accidents.

Many Tibetan Buddhists begin each day reciting a mantra to Tara: Om Tara tuttare ture svaha.  There is a deeper meaning, but very roughly this can be understood as, halvalla viagra apteekki,  "O thee who saves, Tennessee TN Tenn. ,  free me from greed, hatred and delusion, deepen my relationships with others.  May I be as thee."

Greed, buy viagra online, hatred, Acheter viagra bon marché, and delusion are recurring impediments to a full understanding of reality.  Failing to recognize our relationships with others will undo the most excellent management protocols.

What both forms of Tara suggest is the ongoing responsibility we have to engage with others to be attentive, to understand reality as best we can, Wisconsin WI Wis. , to honor our relationships with one another and our environment, Köpa rabatterade viagra,  and to shape our behavior to reduce the risks of mindlessness.  

How any of us gin up the discipline and persistence for this is a personal issue. Whether it is a four-part risk management regime -- or a framework inspired by Welsh wisdom, or an ancient Tibetan mantra, or a spectral vision of Peter Drucker floating above our bed -- doesn't matter as much as arising each morning ready to give attention, be in relationship, and take responsibility for our behavior.

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A column Buy viagra online cheap, by William J. Broad in The New York Times on Tuesday makes the argument that engineering failures like the one that produced the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe inevitably lead to new insights that prevent future calamities. Order viagra online cheap, In other words, every cloud has a silver lining. This may be so, ordering viagra online, but the evidence is equally compelling that those responsible for Deepwater Horizon failed to learn the right lessons from past failures, Alaska AK , and by the way it is still raining.

Deepwater Horizon is only the latest marine catastrophe resulting from our unrelenting thirst for petroleum. If engineers have their way, it seems certain that it will not be the last, buy viagra online cheap.

Those concerned with reliability, ordering viagra pills, human error and decision-making have long studied past disasters associated with the oil and gas industry for lessons we can apply to preventing future crises. Um viagra online, For many years, the 1988 Piper Alpha disaster in the North Sea served as a convenient metaphor for what Charles Perrow termed normal accidents (see Perrow 1999). This theory holds that accidents involving complex technologies are inevitable largely because the complex interactions among their various elements (including the environment) cannot be fully appreciated much less predicted in advance, order viagra overnight delivery.

James Reason (1990) has pointed out that disasters do not result from a single failure, Acheter en ligne viagra, but rather a concatenation of small failures or holes in the system that eventually line up allowing errors to slip through undetected until their consequences become evident. Buy viagra online cheap, These errors often involve a combination of active and latent failures that include design defects and operational or maintenance errors fueled by the failure to recognize something unexpected occurring before it was too late.

The complexity of highly technological systems is among the reasons human beings still play critical and intimate roles in their their design, operation and maintenance, Kansas KS Kans. . Humans have a far greater capacity to deal with ambiguity than machines, Comprar viagra de descuento, and under both ideal and less than ideal circumstances they can often make up for the inability to predict in advance what will happen when things go wrong.

But human beings have their weaknesses too. Experiments by the noted German psychologist Dietrich Dörner (1996) have demonstrated three particular shortcomings of people making decisions under conditions of complexity:

1. We tend to think in terms of simple cause-effect relationships, District of Columbia DC D.C. ,


2. We too easily underestimate the influence of exponential changes in time-space relationships, Indiana IN Ind. , and


3. We overlook network effects by either diving to deeply into the details or skipping fleetingly from one thing to another.

All three of these problems afflict public policy on off-shore drilling in the deep sea. Suggesting that we can overcome these problems with better engineering is simply hubris, buy viagra online cheap.

Assuming this disaster occurred due to a design flaw or mechanical failure of the blowout preventer overlooks evidence that operators had detected but failed to respond to operational anomalies over the course of several weeks before a methane blowout destroyed the platform. Each day that passed without incident reinforced expectations that the detected problems were not as serious or urgent as they seemed, ostaa halvalla viagra, when in reality the platform was lurching toward disaster with increasing speed. Viagra generic, These problems, however, pale in comparison to the way many observers and commentators are treating the aftermath, Koop korting viagra.

On one hand, Cheap viagra, people are focusing too narrowly on the destruction of the platform itself and the resulting environmental catastrophe resulting from the long unimpeded flow of oil into the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Buy viagra online cheap, Impatience at the pace of efforts to staunch the flow of oil has now been replaced by a desire to see the well remain sealed permanently so it no longer occupies a prominent place in the public's attention. On the other hand, those concerned with the impacts of these events seem to skip from one hardship faced by Gulf Coast residents and businesses to another without ever focusing on the root cause of their current situation, comprar viagra.

It may be reasonable to ask what we are willing to do to restore ecosystems, Iowa IA , protect jobs, and preserve the unique culture of Gulf Coast communities, but dealing with these problems without addressing the systemic problems arising from the dependence of our economy and way of life on petroleum will only delay the inevitable adaptations necessary to restore balance in the fragile Gulf Coast ecosystem, ordering viagra no rx.

Engineering as a discipline concerns itself with how we as a society apply science to solve specific problems. Cheapest viagra in the world, Unfortunately, engineers often mistake the appearance of solutions for evidence that a problem they can solve should be solved as they define it. Efforts to improve deepwater drilling technology may prove itself just such a situation, buy viagra online cheap.

Putting science back at the fore of policy discussions (if not the decisions themselves) does not mean giving technologists the keys to the kingdom, viagra without prescription. Likewise, Washington WA Wash. , worry about the inevitable effects of what we do not know or cannot predict need not be seen as a sign of weakness. Benefit-cost analysis and risk management can only help us answer questions that  present us with clear choices that involve better and worse alternatives. When we only have bad options available, Oklahoma OK Okla. , as we do now when it comes to meeting short-term energy needs on the way to energy independence and greater availability of clean, Viagra no prescription, renewable sources of supply, we only fool ourselves to think the costs can be managed when the externalities have such devastating long-term effects. Buy viagra online cheap, Whether engineers can improve the safety and reliability of drilling rigs and the associated extraction operations is a completely separate and distinct question from whether or not such activities should be occurring at all. Engineers have just as much right as anyone else to participate in such important public policy decisions, Minnesota MN Minn. , but they should not expect their opinions to hold any more sway than those of any other interested party. Buy viagra online legally, The bigger question is not whether engineers will learn anything from Deepwater Horizon, but whether we trust them to apply those lessons to create even bigger problems than the ones already confronting us.

Further reading:

Schrage, M. (2010). The Failure of Failure, Harvard Business Review Blogs, posted March 3, 2010, buy viagra online cheap.

Senge, P., et al. (2008). The Necessary Revolution. New York: Doubleday.

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Back in May a reader's comment to Homeland Security Watch Order propecia without prescription, recommended a text written in 1999.  I finally read it over the weekend.  Here's an excerpt:

Contingency plans for large oil spills on the open sea are fantasy documents.., cheap propecia. Buy propecia without prescription, The utility of contingency plans for major oil spills is more symbolic than instrumental. Their production gives the impression that organizations, cheapest propecia online, Montana MT Mont. , especially corporations and regulatory agencies, can effectively manage the negative externalities of massive oil production, Um propecia online. Acquistare online propecia, These plans,furthermore, order propecia online, Ordering propecia overnight delivery, organize political discussions about oil disaster, tanker safety, farmacia propecia baratos, Kjøpe billig propecia, conservation, and offshore oil leasing.  To the extent they do so they shape the categories available with which to talk about corporate power, Michigan MI Mich. , Cheap propecia tablets, government neglect, and the consequences of huge oil spills.., propecia. Köpa propecia, Oil spill fantasy documents contribute to the notion that "the problem" of major oil spills comes from insufficient money, lack of determination, cheap propecia, Order propecia overnight delivery, and poor coordination.  One consequence of framing the issue this way is that some questions -- about conservation, about corporate power, comprar propecia baratos, Order propecia without prescription, and political risk -- rarely get asked outside what is defined as the environmentalist fringe.

This is from page 23, Mission Improbable: Fantasy Documents to Tame Disaster by Lee Clarke, Connecticut CT Conn. . Ordering propecia no prescription, The text is a credible critique of our -- delusionary -- tendency to confuse profound uncertainty with predictiable risk.  The critique is especially persuasive when read in combination with today's headlines, such as:

Failure of rig's last line of defense tied to myriad factors (New York Times)

BP was told of safety fault "weeks before blast" (BBC)

Markey will demand oil companies re-write spill-response plans(Bloomberg Business Week)

What Mission Improbable does not do is point us to what -- if anything -- we might do to avoid such self-defeating fantasies (other than avoid temptation to hubris).  Sometimes we must accurately critique before we can effectively create, New York NY N.Y. . Ohio OH , For more creative purposes, please check out the significant resources made available online by the Prince William Sound Citzens' Advisory Council. 

Established in the aftermath of the Exxon-Valdez disaster, comprare propecia sconto, Iowa IA , this public-private "collaboratory" looks and behaves like a whole host of resilient communities documented by Elinor Ostrom and others over the years.

There are lessons here -- whether you are concerned with natural, købe propecia online, accidental, or intentional threats -- for how we create capacity to engage what we cannot control.

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Buy diazepam online cheap, Presidents typically address the country from the Oval Office only in times of crisis. On such occasions, Wyoming WY Wyo. , the office serves as a metaphor and communicates a sense of gravitas, decisiveness and authority unique to the presidential office. President Obama's use of the office tonight for his address on the response to the Deepwater Horizon crisis was consistent with this metaphor in every respect. Sadly, comprar en línea diazepam, I believe it was the wrong approach, Buy diazepam online legally, and will do little if anything to restore confidence here or abroad that recovery is coming much less possible.

Crises differ from disasters and catastrophes not so much in terms of their scope or scale as they do in the extent to which they cause us to question either our confidence in our leaders or their competence resolving the situation. This particular tragedy involves both elements, order diazepam without prescription. Public confidence in government has rarely been lower, and even his allies have begun to openly question the capacity of this President and his administration's competence when it comes to the core functions of governing, buy diazepam online cheap.

Like past presidential addresses from the Oval Office, New York NY N.Y. , this one framed the challenges confronting the country as a battle to be won. The use of militaristic rhetoric implies an enemy exists that we can defeat if only we exhibit sufficient resolve. While many people no doubt see BP as the enemy in this instance, Om diazepam online, it should have been made clear that this catastrophe is not only about the hubris and bumbling of BP as it as about how we as a nation have managed our destructive addiction to oil. Cheap generic diazepam, Either way, a resolution to this crisis is not simply a question of technical prowess. Buy diazepam online cheap, In the one instance during his address in which he used the word resilience (and even then only in the penultimate paragraph), President Obama employed it in a manner given the context of his earlier remarks that implied it was synonymous with ingenuity. This stands in stark contrast to the National Security Strategy he released at the end of last month, Ohio OH , which used the term in a manner more consistent with robustness. Ordering diazepam online legally, For sure, conventional notions of resilience emphasize both qualities: robustness and resourcefulness. Some add a third, ordering diazepam online, redundancy and redesign, Order diazepam no prescription, but these are often understood as extensions of rather than alternatives to the other two concepts. As Phil Palin noted in his post regarding the implications of the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe on our understanding of resilience, the concept of resilience should and could mean so much more to us, Kentucky KY Ky. .

By committing himself and his administration so completely to a particular view of success -- stopping the oil and remediating the damage -- the President has so far failed to address the important part we all play in this recovery operation, buy diazepam online cheap. Having shouldered the burden for success or failure, Online diazepam, despite warning us that success would not come easy or fast, he has suggested in no small way that Gulf Coast residents (and to some extent the rest of us too) will be relieved of the burden of adapting to the new realities this catastrophe will almost certainly create.

Some time ago, diazepam farmacia a buon mercato, I suggested that recovery affects us at a material and rational level on the one hand and on an emotional and moral level at another. Ordering diazepam from canada, We often experience and interpret these dimensions of crisis through the twin prisms of time and value. The longer it takes for us to appreciate the full extent and long-term implications of a crisis, the less likely it is we will have confidence that the same leaders who got us in the mess will help us get out, Connecticut CT Conn. . Buy diazepam online cheap, The same cannot always be said for our commitment to the assumptions and ideals that create the blind spots we share with them.

Ideally, Arkansas AR Ark. , a crisis of the scope and scale presented by the Deepwater Horizon disaster will force us to question our understanding not just of the situation, but also of the nature of understanding itself. That said, buy diazepam online, understanding is not only a question of rationality, Maine ME Me. , but also of morality.

This brings us back to the question of responsibility. In an op-ed for CNN, Tennessee TN Tenn. , Julian Zelizer made the observation in respect of the way off-shore drilling was regulated and supervised before the disaster, Ordering diazepam pills, "Engineers have dominated decision-making over the scientists." The professionals who self-identify with these two tribes debate the question who belongs to each of them all the time, but it is unusual for someone else to make such a distinction especially in response to a question of policy which cannot rightly be considered the primary province of either profession.

I suppose that Zelizer intended to imply that one focuses on knowledge and the other on its application, buy diazepam online cheap. That is another way of saying one is interested in knowing and the other is focused on doing, buy cheap diazepam online. One engages in an epistemic quest, Comprar diazepam, a search for knowledge; the other is occupied with its ontological implications, with what is and what we can do with it. No matter how salient these distinctions may seem, diazepam for sale, both occupations remain firmly committed to a common world-view that holds that the path to what is true and right rests upon and is informed by the human faculty of reason. Diazepam over the counter, In this instance, the nation is left wondering, though, what's reasonable about this situation. Buy diazepam online cheap, How can we rationally reconcile ourselves with the knowledge that our appetites and our actions -- even if they were executed by others on our behalf -- led to this disaster without also accepting that it is also our responsibility to do something about it. The answer to this question does not rely on rationality. We often accept responsibility not because it is pleasing or rewarding to do so, but because the rightness and justness of such actions have the capacity to inform our intellect and our emotions, and in doing so imbues our circumstances in crises with meaning and purpose.

By reassuring us that he had the situation in hand and was sparing no effort to bring the situation to a successful conclusion on all fronts, President Obama required too little of us beyond our patience. But our understanding does not depend on patience, it depends on purpose. We will not win this so-called war if all we do is defeat ourselves, buy diazepam online cheap. We cannot think our way of of the mess we have made. Neither can we afford to leave the thinking to others, even if they are cleverer than us.

If President Obama really wants to use this crisis as an opportunity to restore our sense of national purpose and pride, he needs to challenge us -- all of us -- along with his administration. We can all make a contribution, but only if we are willing to make sacrifices. We can begin by sacrificing the contradictory assumptions and expectations that suggest government is responsible for all that ails us and all that heals us.

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For readers of Homeland Security Watch there is an important report in the New York Times.  Don't miss: "Efforts to Repel Gulf Oil Spill Are Described as Chaotic" Buy diazepam without prescription, .    It is a helpful overview of the readiness and response issues HLSwatch has been addressing since April.  Implications for NIMS abound.

Here's an excerpt, ordering diazepam overnight delivery, Cheap diazepam overnight delivery, just to give you a sense of the issues being addressed:

The contingency plan for southeast Louisiana, which was drawn up by a committee led by the Coast Guard and a state representative, Mississippi MS Miss. , South Carolina SC S.C. , specifically mentions the possibility of a blowout and includes a worst case of a million-barrel spill, which is significantly short of even conservative estimates of the current spill.

But like other federal plans, billige diazepam Apotheke, Louisiana LA , it does not anticipate the possibility that the leak could continue for weeks. It concludes, order diazepam online, Where to buy cheap diazepam, for example, that such a spill would require the use of 38, buy diazepam without prescription, Købe diazepam, 400 gallons of dispersant, or roughly 3 percent of what has been applied in the last two months.

The BP plans do consider an uncontrolled blowout, kopen goedkope diazepam, Washington WA Wash. , one that releases 240,000 barrels a day into the gulf for at least 100 days — far worse than the current spill.

In the event of such an enormous spill, Delaware DE Del. , Osta diazepam, according to these plans, “no significant adverse impacts are expected” to beaches, bestill diazepam online, Ordering diazepam no rx, wetlands or coast-dwelling birds.

In the New York Times piece the key "operational" issues are set out.   From a preparedness-and-response perspective you might even call these strategic issues.  But from the perspective of national policy-making I would argue the continuum is something like this:

Tactical - How is the immediate threat of the oil spill being managed?  How is the damage being contained?  How are we assisting those communities and individuals being harmed?  How are we progressing -- what more do we need to do -- to stop the spill.

Operational - What are the implications of this experience for current standards and practice in terms of risk assessment, pharmacie diazepam bon marché, Iowa IA , risk readiness, regulation, generic diazepam, αγοράζουν online diazepam, public-private partnerships, preparedness and response capacity, ostaa halvalla diazepam, Cheapest diazepam in the world, and homeland security doctrine.

Strategic - What does the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon and its aftermath tell us regarding national energy policy, order diazepam, Diazepam cheap, environmental policy, and what we mean when we bandy about the word "resilience", buy diazepam. What are our goals and when these goals conflict, how do we resolve the conflict... and why is this our choice.

In any case, this is the framework I will be using when I listen to the President on Tuesday night.

Updated for further consideration:

Documents from the June 15 hearing of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Energy and Environment (intermittently not available, probably due to high demand)

US oil firms 'unprepared' for major offshore disaster (BBC)

Oil spill makes unlikely partners of BP and federal government (Washington Post)

Obama to outline oil plans in first Oval Office speech (CNN)

Obama's personal decision to focus on the spill (MSNBC)

Obama to detail Gulf Coast recovery (Wall Street Journal)

June 15 Remarks by President at Pensacola (White House)

Obama on oil spill: "This is an assault on our shores."  (USA Today)

White House transcript of June 15 Pensacola speech.

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Buy diazepam no prescription, Managing risk and nurturing resilience are like night and day.  They each aim at a similar destination.  But they take very different roads to get there.  Along the Gulf of Mexico we are driving mostly at night along a very narrow road at the top of a steep cliff.

According to the Financial Times, Tony Hayward, Cheap diazepam no rx, British Petroleum’s CEO, said the company is “looking for new ways to manage ‘low-probability, high-impact’ risks such as the Deepwater Horizon oil rig accident.”

But in the Washington Post, Richard Posner explains, order diazepam overnight delivery, “There is a natural tendency to postpone preventive actions against dangers that are likely to occur at some uncertain point in the future (‘sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof,’ as the Bible says), Diazepam over the counter, especially if prevention is expensive, and especially because there is so much else to do in the here and now… It seems that no one has much incentive to adopt or even call for safeguards against low-probability, but potentially catastrophic disasters.”

Faced with an actual and still growing disaster, for the moment Mr, order diazepam pills. Hayward and the rest of us have plenty of incentive to consider low-likelihood, high-consequence possibilities.  This is, Buy cheap diazepam, as a first grade teacher might say, a teachable moment.  In an early June Wall Street Journal op-ed, British Petroleum’s CEO listed three lessons-learned so far:

• “First, cheapest diazepam prices, we need better safety technology…”


• “Second, we need to be better prepared for a subsea disaster. Cheap diazepam online legally, It is clear that our industry should be better prepared to address deep sea accidents of this type and magnitude…”


• "Third, the industry should carefully evaluate its business model…”  This is corporate-speak for cutting out sub-contractors and tightening command-and-control.  In related comments reported by The Financial Times, “Mr. Hayward argued that the industry could cut the risk of serious accidents in deep-water drilling to ‘one in a billion or one in a trillion’, but it might mean changing the way the drilling industry works.” 

These are entirely reasonable risk-management responses: enhanced prevention technology, improved response capacity, and tightening the relationship between responsibility and accountability.  Such risk reduction is helpful, buy diazepam no prescription.  But in claiming to reduce risk to a one-in-a-billion or one-in-a-trillion chance (quite a range), Nevada NV Nev. , Mr. Hayward demonstrates he still has some learning to do. Diazepam without a prescription, Drilling for oil anywhere involves risk, even more a mile under the ocean. The risk is amplified by an operating environment that is especially sensitive to the risk.  It is also an operating environment that complicates risk containment.  

One more lesson: Risk Persists Buy diazepam no prescription, . We can try to transfer, comprare diazepam, avoid, and reduce risk, Kjøp Discount diazepam, but risk does not disappear.  The more we try to convince ourselves the risk has been managed away, the more we are probably putting ourselves at risk.  The best attribute of an effective risk manager is a persistent bit of professional (not personal) paranoia.

Which points toward another lesson: because our ability to manage risk is innately limited, the resilience of our environment, where to buy diazepam, our resources, and our purposes are especially important.  Resilience is not a risk-management strategy.  Resilience is much more fundamental. Köpa rabatterade diazepam, Derek Armitage developed the resilience definition I use, “(1) the ability of a system to absorb or buffer disturbances and still maintain its core attributes; (2) the ability of the system to self-organize, and (3) the capacity for learning and adaptation in the context of change.” According to the evidence so far, the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform will be a great case-study of a non-resilient system, diazepam for sale.

Armitage also reminds us, “Systems experience changes that are unknowable and discontinuous, Pennsylvania PA Penn. , and involve sudden and dramatic flips.”  This insight into how complex systems operate is not yet common sense.  In fact, it remains uncommon among many – arguably most – managers, engineers, and others who are deeply invested in systems continuity, ordering diazepam online legally. Since April 20 British Petroleum, TransOcean, and all of us have had the opportunity to learn quite a bit more about complex adaptive systems.  Have we learned, buy diazepam no prescription.

Last week Mr. Hayward explained in his WSJ op-ed, Diazepam en ligne afin, “The industry and the government did not anticipate this type of accident—one in which all the ‘failsafe’ mechanisms failed.”  This is a valuable observation. But there is no evidence – yet – that Mr. Hayward or many in government, media, acheter diazepam, or the general public have learned that inability to predict is innate to catastrophic potential. Buy diazepam no prescription,  A catastrophe is the outcome of an unpredictable cascading failure of inter-related systems.

During his June 4 press briefing Admiral Thad Allen, Diazepam, the national incident commander, said, “One of the things we may want to look at in the future – when we look for a worst-case scenario – (is how) we look at a discharge and the equipment needed to deal with that particular discharge. I don't think any response plan ever contemplated response over this long period of time moving into a hurricane season.”   Thinking through how to deal with worst-case scenarios is helpful.  But complex systems will sooner or later present a worst-case we did not predict.  It is important to manage risk, αγοράσετε diazepam, but risk persists. 

Given the reality of persistent risk, we should nourish a resilience that goes beyond any set of specific risks. Comprar diazepam de descuento, Resilience is an expression of how the various elements of a system are in relationship with one another.  Over the last twenty years Elinor Ostrom, the 2009 Nobel Prize laureate in economics, has identified the principal attributes of resilience in human communities, including:

• Broad based participation, Virginia VA Va. , collaboration, and deliberation:  Our risk management discussion is now focused on how to enhance command-and-control through new business models and better regulation. Köpa diazepam, (see June 6 New York Times) But if this is our only strategy it will discourage meaningful community-based and regional risk assessment, under-value public-private partnerships in preparedness, and fail to cultivate a shared vision of how risk-taking and resilience-making can contribute to the common good.  Command-and-control has a narrow benefit.  Collaborating-and-creating has broad benefit, but it does not come cheap.


• Multilayered and polycentric organizational structures: In the aftermath of the disaster, South Carolina SC S.C. , the risk management discussion is now focused on how to narrow and focus operations.  Tactically this makes sense.  But such narrowing will reduce strategic resilience unless our approach also allows for cross-cutting federal, state, New Jersey NJ N.J. , local, and private-sector involvement in deciding how risk is undertaken. What is most efficient is not always most effective, especially in the most consequential risk-taking.


• Networked organizational structures with mutual accountability built into how the network functions:  The authentic acceptance of mutual accountability is crucial.  A couple of weeks ago the Obama administration was experimenting with the notion of “collective responsibility.”  While roughly coherent with mutual accountability, the public was not receptive, buy diazepam no prescription. The concept cannot be imposed after-the-fact.  Mutual accountability is cultivated over time through the other components of resilience-making.


• Content-rich and meaningful interaction regularly occurring across the network:  One of the reasons that command-and-control or broadcast strategies (such as the current BP advertising campaign) have limited pay-offs is the lack of interaction.  The more interaction, the more potential collaboration, the more likely an acceptance of mutual accountability.  But making this investment in advance is non-trivial.


• Facilitative and/or catalytic leadership (in sharp contrast with authoritative or control-oriented leadership): Thad Allen has, sometimes under considerable pressure, been the most authoritative and the most facilitative leader involved in the Deepwater Horizon response.  His uniform and demeanor contribute to the sense of authority.  But the admiral’s rhetoric and approach has been facilitative, even to point of continuing to treat BP as a “partner” long after public opinion has demonized the company.


• All the preceding attributes and their activities produce knowledge of both the system and its environment:  Making resilience is the outcome of many parts. Through all the preceding steps a web of relationships is established.  This web is much more likely to survive in some form, no matter how hard it is hit.  If elements of the web are taken out, what persists retains the knowledge – intention and potential – of the entire web.


• All the preceding attributes contribute to individual and system-wide learning, which is the application of knowledge to maintaining and/or potentially extending the boundaries within which the system maintains its equilibrium:  A resilient web of relationships continues to learn and grow even – sometimes especially – under stress.  We are motivated to learn by our relationships across the web and our mutual accountability.  For the same reasons we are also motivated to apply what we have learned, which is key to maintaining, restoring, or extending the systems equilibrium.


• The sum of the preceding attributes creates a sense of mutual trust between most of the participants in the system.  Today there is very little trust in evidence along the Gulf (see BP makes progress on spill, less on trust).  This reflects the narrow, “business-like” relationship of the industry to the Gulf region before the disaster.  The lack of trust also reflects a nearly exclusive federal role in regulating the industry before the disaster.  Unfamiliarity does not nurture trust. Trust is built through ongoing substantive interaction over time. The disaster unfolding in the gulf would challenge the most robust circle-of-trust, but there had been no sustained effort prior to the disaster to form the circle.

The teachable moment is upon us, but I perceive the resilience lesson is yet to be learned.  The lessons are, in many ways, coming too late for British Petroleum and others involved in the Gulf disaster.  What about the rest of us.

Risk management and resilience complement each other, but are largely parallel paths.  Risk management is focused on defining the down-side and controlling it.  Resilience imagines the upside and tries to create it.

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Clomid over the counter, Tuesday, May 18 update:

Disaster plans lacking at deep rigs (Wall Street Journal)

BP response plan shows lack of readiness (USA Today)

BP, deepwaterdrillers unprepared for oil leaks, Lieberman says (Bloomberg Businessweek)

Original Post:

Transocean, the word's largest deepwater drilling company, owns the Deepwater Horizon platform now scattered across the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.  Transocean was operating Deepwater Horizon under contract with a consortium of energy companies that holds the minerals lease on Mississippi Canyon block 252 (MC252).

British Petroleum, one of the world's largest energy companies, kjøpe billig clomid, is the majority owner (65 percent) of the MC252  lease and the oil well now spewing tens-of-thousands of gallons of oil into the Gulf.  The lease was awarded by the Minerals Management Service of the US Department of Interior. 

As a condition of being awarded the MC252 lease, Pharmacie clomid bon marché, British Petroleum and its consortium partners undertook several commitments.  Title 30, part 250, section 107 of the Code of Federal Regulations specifies the following for all MMS leaseholders:

a) You must protect health, bestill clomid online, safety, Comprar clomid, property, and the environment by:

(1) Performing all operations in a safe and workmanlike manner; and

(2) Maintaining all equipment and work areas in a safe condition.

(b) You must immediately control, remove, cheap clomid no rx, or otherwise correct any hazardous oil and gas accumulation or other health, αγοράζουν φτηνά clomid, safety, or fire hazard.

(c) You must use the best available and safest technology (BAST) whenever practical on all exploration, development, comprare clomid, and production operations. Order clomid from canada, In general, we consider your compliance with MMS regulations to be the use of BAST.

(d) The Director may require additional measures to ensure the use of BAST:

(1) To avoid the failure of equipment that would have a significant effect on safety, health, price of clomid, or the environment;

(2) If it is economically feasible; and

(3) If the benefits outweigh the costs.

Catastrophic potential is often discounted by cost-benefit analysis.  From various news reports (many of which originated with a Huffington Post piece) it appears this may be the case with the MC252 lease. 

The private sector is not alone in discounting catastrophic potential.  Talk to your city, Discount clomid, county, or State emergency managers regarding catastrophic preparedness.  You might time the increasing frequency of extended "uhhhs," "umms, buy clomid," and other signals of uncertainty (otherwise known as "thinking").  Or you might ask yourself a similar set of questions and evaluate your own preparedness for an unlikely but high consequence event. Buy clomid c.o.d., Continuing with lease commitments: 30 CFR part 250, Section 250 addresses what preparations the MC252 leasee must undertake for an oil spill:

The following information regarding potential spills of oil (see definition under 30 CFR 254.6) and hazardous substances (see definition under 40 CFR part 116), as applicable, clomid en ligne afin, must accompany your DPP or DOCD:

(a) Oil spill response planning. Nevada NV Nev. , The material required under paragraph (a)(1) or (a)(2) of this section:

(1) An Oil Spill Response Plan (OSRP) for the facilities you will use to conduct your proposed development and production activities prepared according to the requirements of 30 CFR part 254, subpart B; or

(2) Reference to your approved regional OSRP (see 30 CFR 254.3) to include:

(i) A discussion of your regional OSRP;

(ii) The location of your primary oil spill equipment base and staging area;

(iii) The name(s) of your oil spill removal organization(s) for both equipment and personnel;

(iv) The calculated volume of your worst case discharge scenario (see 30 CFR 254.26(a)), and a comparison of the appropriate worst case discharge scenario in your approved regional OSRP with the worst case discharge scenario that could result from your proposed development and production activities; and

(v) A description of the worst case oil spill scenario that could result from your proposed development and production activities (see 30 CFR 254.26(b), acquistare online clomid, (c), Mississippi MS Miss. , (d), and (e)).

(b) Modeling report. If you model a potential oil or hazardous substance spill in developing your DPP or DOCD, a modeling report or the modeling results, or a reference to such report or results if you have already submitted it to the Regional Supervisor.

The approved BP regional Oil Spill Response Plan (OSRP) (19.8 megabyte download) is mostly a specialized Incident Command System (ICS) model with an inventory of response equipment, call lists, and sample information forms, clomid over the counter. There is no evidence of any thinking per se complicating the plan.  Response is conceived primarily as a sequence of competent tactics responding to a mostly predictable event. 

This is typical of most "emergency plans."  To plan once meant to develop a scheme of action anticipating strategic inflections.  Too often we now reduce a plan to something similar to a complicated wiring diagram.  This is one reason why so many plans remain comfortably ensconced on the planer's or regulator's shelf or hard drive, cheapest clomid in the world.

Federal regulations -- specifically 30 CFR, Cheap clomid, part 250, section 300 -- address several aspects of pollution mitigation in offshore drilling. Sections 400, Kentucky KY Ky. , 500, New Mexico NM N.Mex. , and 600 specify several safety measures that must be in place.  There is particular attention to technical aspects of blow-out prevention.  Section 1500 gives attention to Well Control and Production Safety Training.  The Minerals Management Service also administers a significant program focused on prevention, mitigation, and preparedness for oil spills (see MMS website), clomid pharmacy.

What I cannot find in any of these regulations or plans or  instructions  is significant attention to catastrophic possibility.  This is not surprising.  It is typical.  I do not view this inattention as proof of regulatory or corporate malfeasance.  It is, Generic clomid, though, a mistake.  It is a mistake we now have an opportunity to recognize and plenty of motivation to correct. Clomid over the counter, No matter how strong the prevention effort nor how unlikely the catastrophe, there should be regularly updated plans for mitigating and responding to several -- no-kidding -- worst case scenarios. To have any hope of effectiveness the plans must be  regularly exercised.  Both public and private players must be involved in the exercises, assessments, and plan revisions.  This prescription is important far beyond offshore drilling and as close as your own neighborhood.

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. A dime of preparedness is worth a hundred bucks of response, cheap clomid without prescription. An hour exercising is worth more than ten hours filling in planning templates.  A thoughtful plan, Where to buy cheap clomid, a meaningful exercise, a realistic evaluation, and a rigorous updating of both plans and operations is worth.., buy cheap clomid. well, it's one of the rarest of finds.

For further consideration:

Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter R. Bernstein

The InfraGard Program and the Houston chapter's full scale public-private exercise

Resources and outcomes of the May 12 hearing of the Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce.

British Petroleum's Gulf of Mexico Response website

Deepwater Horizon Unified Command website

Southeast Louisiana Area Contingency Plan (PDF: large download)

MMS Notice to Leasees regarding Regional and Sub-regional Oil Spill Response Plans

(On Monday, May 17 beginning at 2:30  the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs will conduct a hearing entitled: Gulf Coast Catastrophe: Assessing the Nation's Response to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.  Secretary Napolitano and others are scheduled to testify.).

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Order clomid without prescription, Sunday Messrs. Brennan and Holder told us the Taliban-in-Pakistan or Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP) were involved in the fizzled Times Square attack.  "We know that they helped facilitate it; we know that they helped direct it, cheapest clomid, Florida FL Fla. , " said Attorney General Eric Holder. "And I suspect that we are going to come up with evidence which shows that they helped to finance it, buy clomid pills. Order clomid online without prescription, They were intimately involved in this plot." (Associated Press)

The TTP has claimed credit.  It has also released an audio message of its leader threatening future attacks on the United States.  You can see and hear a  translated and illustrated version of the message courtesy of YouTube and the TTPs propaganda branch.  (Brian Fishman at Foreign Policy has a helpful analysis of a couple of recent TTP media pieces.)

In March 2009, Homeland Security Watch and many others reported on a specific TTP threat to attack the United States.  So.., cheap clomid overnight delivery. Billig clomid apotek, none of this is exactly breaking news.  But the events in Times Square have, for the moment, købe clomid online, Buy clomid no prescription, focused our attention.  While I have your attention, please examine what the TTP tried -- and failed -- to undertake in Barcelona.  As far as I know this has been their most ambitious operation outside South Asia, cheap clomid online. Køb discount clomid, In January 2008 Spanish authorities arrested 14 involved in a plot to attack the Barcelona subway system (Reuters).   In January 2009, the US Military Academy's Combating Terrorism Center published a case study on the Barcelona attack plan, clomid discount. Where to buy clomid, In December 2009 eleven of those arrested were convicted. (Deutsche Welle).  

I have recently tried to distinguish between what we can predict-and-control in contrast with anticipation-and-preparation.  Attention is critical to anticipation. Acheter clomid bon marché. Oregon OR Ore. . Köpa rabatterade clomid. Kopen goedkope clomid. District of Columbia DC D.C. . Clomid cheap. Clomid prescription. Online clomid. Ostaa halvalla clomid.

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Last week we spent a few days on what constitutes a catastrophe and how we might define it.   There is no consensus.  But among the top contenders are:

Triple-trouble disasters Buy clomid c.o.d., , perhaps what Craig Fugate calls "Maximum-of- Maximums."  (Has the FEMA administrator derived this mantra from hurricane surge models?)

Cascading systems failure obliterating means of command, control, or coordination. (Well, αγοράσετε clomid έκπτωση, sure...  but let's admit there's an innate tautology in presumptive commanders, controllers, and coordinators defining catastrophe as losing the ability to play their roles.)

A significant shift in the society's sense-of-self and direction caused by how  the event is interpreted, För clomid online, even if the maximum-of-maximums is not  suffered and command-and-control is preserved.  Regular readers know this is my bias. Koop korting clomid, (See a prior post for more.)

A colleague recently suggested that time-passing is also an important component in defining catastrophe.  How will 9/11 be viewed a century from now?  How do we perceive (if at all)  the 1755 Lisbon earthquake?  What about Chernobyl or Bhopal?  The sack of Rome or Baghdad?  With the passage of time do we understand these events as catastrophic?  If so, how?  If not, why not, cheap clomid online cheap.

Even more obscure, Price of clomid, how about the collapse of Antioch?  Across most of the classical era Antioch was one of the three great cities of the Mediterranean world.   Rome and Alexandria -- while much changed -- have persisted, Antioch has essentially disappeared.

Founded in 300 BC by Seleucus, ordering clomid, a successor of Alexander the Great, Order clomid no prescription, Antioch may have been the most vivacious city in the Hellenistic world.  During most of the Roman Empire -- even after the founding of Constantinople (324 AD) --   it was the true capital of the East.   It was from Antioch that St. Paul set out to convert the world. 

The historian H.V, buy clomid c.o.d.. Morton describes classical Antioch as a, “city of consumers…full of rich aristocrats and nouveaux riches, Arkansas AR Ark. , and of wealthy, Købe clomid, retired people who sought here one of the finest climates in the world. Something that we associate with Venice in the eighteenth century, with Paris in the nineteenth century, Virginia VA Va. , and with Hollywood today, Clomid without a prescription, with its deification of youth and beauty, distinguished Antioch... It was up-to-date, comprar clomid, amusing, Generic clomid, elegant, wicked….”

Antioch was always a tumultuous place.  It was situated  at the seam of  Western and Eastern cultures, at the flashpoint of Greco-Roman and Persian imperial ambition, order clomid online, and at the intersection of what are now known as the Dead Sea Fault and the East Anatolian Fault. Montana MT Mont. ,

Over the centuries Antioch experienced several disastrous floods, earthquakes, and conquests, For clomid online. Buy clomid c.o.d., But it always recovered, usually stronger, more beautiful, and more compelling than before.  Antioch was especially resilient. Yet it did not recover from the earthquake of October 31, 588.  Why not? 

The late sixth century disaster was severe. It  was also  the culmination of a series of disasters.  The earthquake was followed by other closely spaced stress events.  Finally, the late sixth century was a time of significant shifts in economic, political, and cultural realities extending far beyond Antioch.  

It seems to me the catastrophe at Antioch -- if you will join me it calling it such -- was the outcome of a cumulative set of challenges.

There was a huge fire in 525.  The next year an earthquake reportedly killed 250, αγοράσετε clomid, 000 inhabitants.  On November 29, 528 an even worse earthquake hit the city.  In 538 Antioch was temporarily captured by the Persians.

After reclaiming Antioch in 540 the Byzantine Emperor Justinian led a major rebuilding effort.  The restoration continued apace for over 15 years, order clomid, barely slowing during an epidemic of bubonic plague that began in 542. The plague continued in spurts and starts for several years

But after the 588 quake Antioch never reclaimed anything close to its former population, Indiana IN Ind. ,  status, or wealth.  The October 31 earthquake was bad, but not as bad as two or three prior hits.  Something other than the quake is needed to explain the persistent decline the great city experienced after 588, Vermont VT Vt. .

Possible culprits include the economic consequences of the mid-sixth century plague years and the (related) financial crisis resulting from drastic overspending by the Byzantine government (this included overspending on Antioch).  There was also a serious drought in the Antioch region over many years at the turn of the seventh century. Billiga clomid apotek, These challenges were extended and amplified by the Byzantine-Sassanid (Persian) wars of 602-628 AD,which once again brought foreign conquest to Antioch.   This long war  weakened both the Byzantines and Sassanids, setting the stage for the Arabs to take the city in 638, παραγγείλετε online clomid.

So.., buy clomid c.o.d.. at least in the case of Antioch, Louisiana LA , we can see non-resilience and non-recovery after 588 as the culmination of a range of inter-related factors unfolding over time. Most of these factors would have been impossible to confidently forecast, but are clear in retrospect, Kaufen clomid.

While this may seem a weird weekend indulgence in historical musing, Osta alennus clomid, I am prompted  by a radio conversation regarding today's Gulf coast.  Given the continuing impacts of Katrina -- especially on the Mississippi delta marshes -- the likelihood of a major oil spill, the expectation of an especially bad 2010 hurricane season, and a range of other factors, the effects do seem cumulative.  Will there be a culminating event?  Will we decide it is a  catastrophic event.

For further consideration:

Anatolia: a history forged by disaster (National Geographic)

History of Byzantium by Timothy E. Gregory

Antioch: The Lost Ancient City (Worcester Art Museum)

Antioch Mosaics (Baltimore Museum of Art) -- On February 5 I was in Baltimore for meetings related to regional catastrophic planning.  By the time I finished the snowpocalypse had already claimed my home in Piedmont Virginia and was moving north.  Before hunkering down in my hotel (where I was snowbound for four days) I visited the Baltimore Museum of Art.  These fabulous room-sized mosaics have enthralled me ever since.

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May 7  Update: Order clomid no prescription,   Late yesterday and overnight I received a few private emails from journalists.  They suggest considerable debate in many news rooms regarding the editorial decisions that have crowded out more attention to the floods in the mid-South.  

It might be wishful thinking, but on Friday morning I seem to see a bit more attention to the natural disaster.  Last week a colleague suggested, "catastrophe is whatever Anderson Cooper says it is."   Thursday night Anderson was reporting from Tennessee (after the blasted ad).  

 But many of the news reports now emerging from the Cumberland river basin are "victim stories."   It may seem cold -- and unrealistic given contemporary culture -- but I am not convinced the victim narrative is any better than the blame narrative. 

I am not expecting journalists to spontaneously produce a (boring) RAND Corporation analysis of watershed risk .  But citizens in a democracy need more than emotional engagement, even from visual media. We need cogent analysis  and crystallized explorations of cause, complexities, order clomid, and effect. Comprare clomid sconto, Original Post:

On Monday and Tuesday the broadcast news cycle was remarkable for its consensus: The lead story was the Times Square terrorism scare. The second story was the Gulf oil spill. Coming in close behind was the Nashville deluge, buy generic clomid.

I did not use a stop-watch, nor could I view all channels simultaneously, and I had to leave for meetings after an hour of flipping channels, but it was my clear impression that CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC and the still Big Three were, for once, in full agreement as to news priority and even news angle, order clomid no prescription.

Wednesday morning the 1-2-3 hierarchy remained the same, New Jersey NJ N.J. , but much less attention was being given to the flood. During the Wednesday 7 to 7:30 block CNN did not give any substantive attention to the flood. (It did use the flood story as a teaser to stay tuned past 7:30.) 

A quick glance at Thursday morning headlines suggests the flood continues to subside, cheap clomid pills, both in terms of attention and otherwise.  The May 6 print edition of USA Today seems to be unique among national news outlets in committing its cover story to "In Nashville, Order clomid c.o.d., a way of life washed away".  But the USA Today website practically buries the same story.

Some of this reflects availability of new information. Order clomid no prescription, The media - like most of us - tend to focus on what is fresh and different.  By Wednesday it had stopped raining over most of the mid-South.

But the kind of attention being given to stories 1 and 2 suggest another difference.  Wednesday morning the editorial focus was on how security lapses let the terrorist suspect board a plane bound for Dubai and how, ordering clomid no prescription, in retrospect, Nevada NV Nev. , the suspect had displayed suspicious behavior since last summer. CBS reported that Faisal Shahzad has appeared on one watch list since 1999.

In terms of the Gulf oil spill, ordering clomid without prescription, a late Tuesday report by the Washington Post received prominent attention in the broadcast media.  Juliet Eilperin reported, Buy clomid no rx, "The Interior Department exempted BP's calamitous Gulf of Mexico drilling operation from a detailed environment impact analysis last year."

The Wednesday print-edition of the Washington Post placed Ms. Eilperin's report on page A-4.  For several hours Wednesday morning MSNBC highlighted the identical story as the principal lead on its webpage.  On-air, though not on its website, Jotta clomid verkossa, CNN also gave the story considerable play. 

Many media are repeating Michael Brown's (FEMA director during Katrina) accusation that President Obama and his allies, Clomid for sale,  "want a crisis like this, so that they can use a crisis like this to shut down offshore and gas drilling."  There are also earnest reports on how much BP contributed to the Obama presidential campaign.

For the continuing oil spill and the fizzled bomb plot, the hunt-for-blame is underway.  Who is to blame, what did s/he do, when did s/he do it, where did s/he do it, and why did s/he do it, order clomid no prescription. If the why is purposeful or profoundly negligent the media (and all of us?) are even more interested.  Amplified attention will be given if there is the possibility of  gross incompetence, generic clomid, fraud or -- especially -- personal hypocrisy. Billige clomid apotek, As a result, an intentional event, such as a terrorist attack, clomid online stores, will almost always trump a natural calamity in terms of media attention.  An accidental event will usually come in second, Iowa IA , unless blame can be clearly assigned.  Natural hazards are, to a certain extent, taken for granted.  The more cause (blame) can be personalized, buy clomid c.o.d., the more attention the issue will receive.  In this I think the media largely mimics public interest. Order clomid pills, Would even the Katrina story have gotten the sustained attention it did without the widely perceived incompetence of the response, personified in Mr. Brown and eventually Mr, acquistare a buon mercato clomid. Order clomid no prescription, Bush?  Coverage was given another boost by recognizing the real culprit was a poorly constructed  levee system rather than the hurricane.  The media tends to focus on human causation.  If it can be traced to an individual human, so much the better.

It is, Clomid farmacia a buon mercato, however, worth noting that as of Wednesday the less news-worthy natural disaster had claimed 29 lives and done an estimated "tens of billions of dollars" of damage. Meanwhile the intentional attack - at the top of the news - had failed and the suspected perpetrator was captured.   The potential consequences of the oil spill remain grim, Michigan MI Mich. , but not yet fully realized. New York NY N.Y. , Natural hazards have -- so far in history -- been the principal source of death, injury, and destruction, kjøpe clomid, even exceeding the toll of increasingly efficient international warfare and murderous governments. (See LiveScience list of world's worst natural disasters and  top 10 US disasters.)  Compared to many accidents and, Pharmacy clomid, especially, to lone-wolf terrorists, the threat, buy clomid overnight delivery, vulnerability, and consequences related to most natural disasters can be more easily recognized and mitigated.

It is often possible -- and beneficial -- to integrate prevention, protection, mitigation, response and recovery efforts across the categories.  In addition to threat-specific counter-measures, we can apply a strategy of resilience to a range of risks.  But to do this we must be self-aware of -- and correct for -- a certain obsessive compulsive tendency to give greater weight to what is new and different and an inclination to reduce the issue to who we can blame.

For further consideration:

The Role of Perceived Control in Coping with Disaster (Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology)

Building Resilient Communities: Tools for Assessment (Project on Resilience and Security, Syracuse University)

Acting Intentionally and the Side-Effect Effect (Psychological Science)

Deontological Ethics (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

UPDATE: As of 8:00 AM (eastern) on Thursday the broadcast news cycle seems to be restoring flood coverage to its top-three status.  But the depth of attention remains considerably less than that given to the intentional and accidental threats.

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Order viagra free samples, Further to defining - or as a colleague recently suggested, envisioning - catastrophe, a few early Sunday morning headlines:

US Oil Spill 'threatens way of life', governor says (BBC)

After flyover, congressman downplays threat of oil spill (Miami Herald)

Federal Response based on Worst Case Scenario (Times-Picayune)

Oil spill that threatens an Armageddon (The Mirror UK)

Long-term impact of spill remains unclear (Times-Picayune)

Frustration and Fear Grow in Oil Spill Clean-up (Associated Press video)

Oil Spill Disaster now "Out of Control" (Times Online UK)

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Saturday's lead story in the Washington Post Buy viagra free samples cod, provides more fodder for our consideration of how to define catastrophe. Osta viagra free samples online,

Coast Guard Commandant Thad Allen said in an interview Friday that the company's plans for responding to oil spills did not address the complete failure of equipment on the seafloor designed to prevent a blowout of the sort that took place on the massive drilling rig.

"We're breaking new ground here, cheap viagra free samples overnight delivery. Washington WA Wash. , It's hard to write a plan for a catastrophic event that has no precedent, which is what this was, buy generic viagra free samples, Viagra free samples pills, " Allen said, defending the company against not writing a response for "what could never be in a plan, buy viagra free samples without prescription, Cheap viagra free samples no prescription, what you couldn't anticipate."

The Admiral is correct.  To plan for what is unprecedented is very difficult.  To prepare for an unprecedented but predictable high consequence risk is, therefore, ordering viagra free samples without prescription, New Mexico NM N.Mex. , even more critical.  It is too soon to assess the level of preparedness or the effectiveness of the response in regard to the Deepwater Horizon explosion.  The unfolding of  disaster does not ipso facto mean preparedness was insufficient.  Harm experienced does not necessarily condemn the adequacy of the response.  But it certainly raises questions.

Hammond Eve, köpa viagra free samples online, Georgia GA Ga. , who did environmental impact studies of offshore drilling for the Interior Department's Minerals Management Service, said the federal agency never planned for response to an oil spill of this size, cheapest viagra free samples online. "We never imagined that it would happen because the safety measures were supposed to work and prevent it from happening," he said.

Another failure of imagination?  It is sounding and looking like it.  If so, before we quickly condemn, we might consider how our obsession - especially our regulatory obsession - with quantitative measurement, "hard" facts, and predictable outcomes can overtime constrain and de-value imagination.  There is certainly an important place for rigorous and quantitative measurement.  But by itself, this does not fulfill the potential of  good judgment, buy viagra free samples cod. Pennsylvania PA Penn. ,

John Amos, who spent 10 years as a consulting exploration geologist for oil and gas companies and now heads SkyTruth, Florida FL Fla. , Order viagra free samples no prescription, an operation that uses government satellite imagery to monitor environmental disasters, said he was not surprised that both oil executives and federal officials failed to properly forecast the risks associated with offshore drilling, cheapest viagra free samples in the world. Ordering viagra free samples no rx, "Just like the explosion of a volcano, to a geologist like myself, viagra free samples generic, Acheter viagra free samples discount, these kinds of incidents are fairly predictable, but when they happen, purchase viagra free samples, Buy viagra free samples cod, they come as a shock to us," Amos said.

The disaster at Deepwater Horizon does not yet meet the full definition of catastrophe that I outlined on Thursday.   It is certainly a surprise to many, New Hampshire NH N.H. , Kansas KS Kans. , but not to all. Many have warned something like this was bound to happen, cheapest viagra free samples. Viagra free samples pharmacy, There is significant scope encompassing hundreds of miles of coastline and square miles of open sea. The secondary effects (especially ecological and economic) are likely to be significant, these effects could spur political consequences.  Scale is not yet clear, but it seems to loom large.   The social interpretation of the event is still emerging.  It seems to me that this final element will be the crucial factor in whether this event will mark a sudden change in direction by some significant element of society.

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Editorial Note:  Does anyone know the source of the unattributed Friday interview with Admiral Allen?  I have read or watched seven Friday interviews with the man (he was busy) and cannot find the quote given above by the Washington Post.  Especially given the characterization of the quote, it would be worth reading the full context.

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