A stronger risk-based approach and expanded stakeholder input will be included as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) undertakes the second Quadrennial Homeland Security Review (QHSR) this summer, a top department official said June 6.

“The second review will also have the benefit of a consolidated DHS office that will guide the process,” said DHS Office of Policy Assistant Secretary for Strategy, Planning, Analysis and Risk (SPAR) Alan Cohn. DHS consolidated the functions of the Office of Risk Management and Analysis with the Office of Strategic Plans to form SPAR in March 2012, creating an integrated strategic planning, risk modeling and analysis function for the Department.

The QHSR is legislatively mandated to be conducted every four years under the Homeland Security Act of 2002, as amended. The first review was completed in February 2010 and set forth a strategic framework for the nation’s homeland security. Five homeland security missions were identified during the first review and will remain the core of the strategic approach: 1) preventing terrorism and enhancing security; 2) securing and managing our borders; 3) enforcing and administering our immigration laws; 4) safeguarding and securing cyberspace; and 5) ensuring resilience to disasters.

The second QHSR will build on this foundation and focus on how DHS will build smarter, more dynamic, risk-based approaches to homeland security that engage the broadest possible range of partners. The key difference for the second review is that DHS and its partners will be able to engage continuously through the study and analysis phase of the review, according to Assistant Secretary Cohn. “We will look for areas where strategic shifts may be necessary to keep pace or get ahead of changes in strategic environment,” he said. DHS will complete the second QHSR review process by the end of 2013.

“The first QHSR spelled out the idea of homeland security, but also described the importance of thinking about homeland security as an enterprise responsibility,” Assistant Secretary Cohn said.

“Beyond being a federal responsibility, this is a national responsibility. There is an enterprise that goes far beyond the halls of DHS that is engaged in assuring the security of the homeland of the United States. For that reason, it’s vitally important for the Department to engage with that broader community of stakeholders in conducting a review of this type.”

DHS plans to connect with state, local, tribal, and territorial governments, the private sector, and non-government entity stakeholders through an online community to be established through the DHS Science and Technology Directorate’s First Responders Communities of Practice. DHS will use this and other venues to invite stakeholders to offer perspectives, comments and ideas.

Cohn urged academics and practitioners, including those associated with the Center for Homeland Defense and Security, to contribute.

“We encourage the broader homeland security community, including alumni of the Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security program, to fully and extensively participate in the process of building that community of practitioners,” Cohn said.

The first QHSR was crafted based on input from 42 DHS offices/components, 26 federal departments, and 118 stakeholder groups. The Department received 43 white papers as well as more than 3,000 public comments received during three “National Dialogues.”

That’s the title of an advertisement I saw in the June issue of the IAEM Bulletin. IAEM stands for the International Association of Emergency Managers.

Here’s a picture of the ad.

You can play the game online, at no cost. Just click on this link. http://www.disasterhero.com/ (It took a while to load the first time, but subsequent runs don’t seem to take as long.)

Here’s what the FAQ file says about the game:

Disaster Hero is a free online game designed to teach children (grades 1 through 8), parents, and teachers/caregivers how to prepare for disasters. The overall goals are to ensure that players know what to do before, during, and after a disaster. Parents and teachers are included so that the family and school are familiar with the main concepts of disaster preparedness. Emphasis is placed on three steps – make a plan, get a kit, and be informed….

Disaster Hero covers four main topic areas: (1) basic preparedness steps – including get a kit, make a plan, and be informed – to be accomplished to protect the participant and family before, during, and immediately following a disaster or large-scale emergency event, (2) common disasters (earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, and tornadoes), their associated danger signals, typical effects, common injuries, and appropriate responses, (3) basic quick-care tips and techniques for specific common injuries, and (4) basic information about geographic-specific disasters.

A 12 year old boy lives in my house. He is an avid gamer, and by avid I mean to the point where his mother occasionally searches Google for the difference between avid and addiction.

I asked him to play the Disaster Hero game and tell me what he thought about it. He avidly agreed.

I gave him the url and let him explore. What follows are summaries of the field notes I took while he was playing. Words in quotation marks are his, generally directed at the screen, as if no other humans were in the room with him.

———-
There’s an option to register as a user, but he chose to play as a guest. That cuts the start time significantly.

Then you have to load the flash based game. It took about 5 minutes to load. Our broadband access is around 5 mbs; not especially fast. I wondered what the game demographic was. What kinds of kids have access to the internet at home and in school?

“This is taking forever. They really missed a marketing opportunity here. When Droid games load, they run crawlers that advertise other games you could buy. The people who put this game together could be telling people disaster facts while the game is loading. This is taking forever.”

The game opened to reveal a stage that looked like a mix of CNN, Fox News and the Price is Right.

“Oh God; it’s a game show.”

You select your age appropriate difficulty level: bronze, silver or gold. Then you pick a charter who will be your avatar, sort of like Skyrim and maybe tens of dozens of other games.

Next comes an overly long introductory narrative about a retired emergency manager who spent a lot of his career going from planet to planet helping out.

“I don’t care about all this talking. Let me play.”

The head hero (Dante) left the operational world to train the next generation of disaster heroes.

“This is so annoying.”

The action takes place on a planet that has lots of disasters caused by earth, wind, fire, and so on. But the primary theme, as the advertisement promised, is “make a plan, get a kit, be informed.”

There is a skip option, so you only have to listen to all the talking once. The rules are basic and simple.

“Oh my god. Just shut up.”

Next you pick someone to compete against: Techtonic, Tempest, Whirlwind and Dr. Deluge. Guess what disasters they represent.

Living in the northwest, subject to the whims of the Cascadia subduction zone, he selected Tectonic.

After more words from Dante, the first game starts. The player navigates on a jet pack through a worm hole to pick up disaster supplies (I think that’s what it was), competing against Techtonic to see who can score the most points.

Occasionally there are disaster related multiple choice questions: Such as “How can you tell when an earthquake will happen?” Eventually the player gets enough points to move on to the next stage.

Then more talk.

“This is so slow. I want to skip the talk, but I’m afraid if I do I’ll miss something important.”

The next part of the games consists of three rounds, based on Make a Plan, Get a Kit (the type face makes it seem like “Get A Hit”), and Be Informed.

The Make A Plan game starts with 16 sentences to read about how to make a plan and what to include in it. The words can also be read by the game.

“I’m not going to read all that.”

Once past the reading screen, you go to a picture of two rooms and you have to find the 10 differences between the rooms. Click on the missing item (like a telephone) and another lesson pops up — e.g., make a list of your contacts, and so on.

“This is tedious.”

After that game was over, he moved to the Get A Kit screen and found another long list of sentences, this time about the kit. Because of a Flash problem, the list included such items as “forget your pets,” “food when the electricity does not work,” and “medicine is lost.” But one could work through easily enough what the real list was.

Once that was done, the next game appeared. It consisted of 9 squares, each one containing an object that appeared for a few seconds then disappeared. Click, for example, on three decks of cards and you score points; plus you get a hint about keeping a deck of cards in your kit so you have something to do during disaster downtime.

Be Informed was the third game. After going through another list (“I’m not going to read that.”), there was a map of the United States, shovels, shields and red crosses, plus a news crawl at the top of the screen that said something about floods and earthquakes and other things. The player had to do something with the shovels and shields, but — without reading the directions — it was not clear what one was supposed to do. So Tectonic won that round.

Once that game was over, the player goes back to the Headquarters screen to receive congratulations and the news that there was another round coming up.

“I’m done.” he said, returning to his room. “I’m going back to Minecraft.”

A few hours later, before he went to bed, I asked him for his summary review of Disaster Hero. I asked him what score he would give the game if he were doing a review for something like IGN (a site that reviews games).

“I’d give it about a 6.5 on a scale of 10. Essentially it’s a bunch of moderately interesting mini games needlessly framed around how to prepare for a disaster. There are lots of mini games, but they are not especially interesting. The introductions to the sections are tedious. The sense of humor in the game is not amusing.”

I asked him what he learned about disasters from the game.

“Nothing that I can think of right now. I didn’t want to take the time to read all that stuff. I wanted to get right to the game. If I wanted to learn something about disaster preparedness I’d just search it online. I didn’t need to play a game to find out how to be prepared.”

What’s on your mind related to homeland security?

You can read the complete document here:  A Stronger More Resilient New York.

I found the press release from the Mayor’s office an informative quick read.  You can see the press release here:  Mayor Proposes How to Protect City from Climate Change.

It strikes me as an entirely reasonable mainstream effort.  It is a mix of several different strategies customized to particular sectors, specific geographies, and — I’m guessing — what it is perceived most citizens are willing to accept.

It is “just” a plan.  Funding, sequencing, and execution of individual pieces will determine what is really achieved.  If you’re a resilience nerd (like me) you’ll probably find it lacking imagination.  But if you’re in favor of “git’ur done” recovery, you’ll probably see it as a whole series of non-market-based complications.   There are surely some New York property developers who see a whole host of new opportunities, and maybe that’s the implicit answer to my critiques below.

The report is organized (mostly) by threat, sector, and geography.  There is a section on community preparedness, but it is probably the weakest in the entire document.  The report is further evidence that governments are willing to build stuff and regulate more stuff.  But there is very little attention to politics: the purposeful practice of living together in a city.

(I can just hear my NY buddies laughing that there is not enough politics in something Mayor Bloomberg is pushing.  But this report — and the news conference at which it was released — sounds/reads more like a systems engineering study than anything involving people.)

This political anemia may contribute to my second impression: Significant elements of the plan depend on working with private sector owners and operators of critical infrastructure, but I don’t see anything outlined to suggest how this shared public-private responsibility will be effectively advanced.

I recommend reading the Utilities section.  This is especially well written systems engineering.  When you come to the “Initiatives for Increasing Resiliency in Utilities”, notice the how involves private-public collaboration and creativity.  But there is no rhetorical or systemic case made for why tomorrow will be different than the day before Sandy hit in regards to these crucial relationships.   I have been involved in private-public dialogue related to electric power.  It can be tough even when everyone is operating in good faith.

I assume it’s just a digital glitch.  But on Wednesday when I was reviewing the plan the Telecommunications section was missing… just as wireless was “missing” across large areas during much of Sandy.  The wireless communications industry is currently expending significant resources to resist new efforts at government regulation.  This has seriously complicated private-public collaboration on emergency preparedness involving the wireless sector. I would love to read that Mayor Bloomberg — with his personal background in the private sector working in an area closely related to telecommunications — has cracked the code for engaging the telecom companies.  For the moment, I find the report’s missing piece richly ironic.

In any case, at least read the news release.

The private sector context is perceived as  having significant opportunities for growth, where failure — especially when recognized and jettisoned — can be a key contributor to ultimate success.  The public sector context is perceived as (and often is) resource static or declining and failure is seen as wasteful and/or a source of personal humiliation.

With the exception of an exception by Bill Cumming, this analysis did not prompt comment.  In some cultures silence is a signal of disagreement.  In the United States silence is more often a matter of tacit agreement or apathetic disengagement.  In this instance, I assume the latter but would value your input to challenge or refine these reflections.

–+–

Different Contexts produce Different Concepts of Operation

If reality is static then planning (derived from the Latin for flat or plain or easy to be seen) is not only logical but is reasonably likely to work well.

Moreover if reality is static and failure is “not an option” then planning needs to be — and can be — very detailed.  It becomes the operational analogy of a symphony score.

In the military, emergency management and related public sector domains the score (plan) will often seem similar to an early 20th Century orchestral composition by Schoenberg or Berg or Eisler where excruciating detail unfolds from many pages of careful notation.  It is almost impossible to perform, but  with enough practice serious professionals can pull it off.  Audience reaction varies from wild applause to rioting in the aisle.

Planners are certainly aware they are planning for a non-static situation.  But their current reality — in terms of budget, assignment, measures, and more — is mostly static.  Their own success or failure is much more likely to emerge from the ongoing stasis than the anticipated non-stasis for which they are planning.

(Which reminds me of a Niels Bohr aphorism: “You’re not thinking, you’re just being logical.”)

Meanwhile the private sector — because it perceives expansive opportunity — is inclined to much looser plans, much more jazz than symphony.  This does not mean it is undisciplined, but it is a very different kind of discipline. “To the uninitiated, jazz seems like chaos, whereas the reality is that it’s very ordered,” according to Deniz Ucbasaran. “Underpinning the structure is a long tradition of education and practice.”

In the public sector a great deal of perceived value is embedded in the plan itself.  Developing explicit guidance for future execution is the goal. The private sector tends to focus more on the planning process.  Private value is generated by bringing together individuals and teams from across the enterprise with customers and suppliers and other stakeholders for problem-seeking discussions that emphasize choosing strategic predispositions.  Developing implicit understanding is a frequent goal.

Because private sector context is perceived to be ever-changing it is assumed most tactical decisions cannot be made until real-time is unfolding.  But strategic advantages can be recognized and claimed to better support tactical choices.

Both private and public planning is focused on an anticipated future.  Both private and public recognize the future is not precisely predictable.  But there is a tendency for the public sector to perceive that unpredictability is best engaged through systematically conceived pre-decisions, while the private sector is more inclined to identify present action and shared strategic objectives.

(In a future post I will try to describe what is actually done by the two sectors when the anticipated future unfolds.  It often seems to me counter-intuitive given these predispositions.)

Recently I was involved in a mostly public sector planning process for an unlikely but very consequential event.  There was a private sector guy having his baptismal experience in public-private joint planning.  It was a much better-than-average  public sector planning activity.  There was a substantive discussion of risks. It focused helpfully on meaningful objectives and how the plan should be amended before the next meeting of the inter-jurisdictional, inter-agency, (sort of ) private-public group.

But after the session the newbie private sector participant shared his frustration with the lack of immediate operational/functional action.  He was not referencing planning actions.  He wanted to know when actual changes in personnel, financial or operational commitments would be made to reflect the substantive discussion.  Of course such actions are almost never within the purview of public sector planners.

In a static — or receding — universe, planning relates to what should be done in the future.  In an expanding universe planning is mostly about what will be done now to shape the future.

–+–

Another Niels Bohr quote (can you guess who I am reading?): “Every sentence I utter must be understood not as an affirmation, but as a question.”  While the rhetoric above may sound confident, I am not. This is written out as a kind of discovery learning.  I hope you have some corrections or, at least, alternatives.

First off, a few followup stories on the Moore, Oklahoma tornado:

“Walking the Path of a Tornado”

John Sutter, a columnist for CNN, walked the entire path of the tornado that devastated Moore, Oklahoma from start to finish, tweeting as he went.  Along the way he ran into some amazing stories of individuals helping their neighbors:

In the Braum’s parking lot, I chatted with a couple of for-real volunteers. Judging by Blake and Drew Thompson, selflessness and access to heavy equipment seem to be two valued traits in times like these. The brothers heard on the radio that volunteers were needed and took off work to come. Blake, 28, wore a shirt dedicated to Oklahoma City’s beloved local celebrity, meteorologist Gary England. (Other cities have dozens of famous people to gawk at. OKC has The Thunder, its NBA team; the Flaming Lips, the indie band; and Gary England. People freaking love him. There’s even a Gary England Drinking Game). The brothers brought a chainsaw and wheelbarrow, hoping to help clear rubble. Ready to do whatever was needed to assist strangers.

And the kindness of individuals moved by others’ acts of courage:

Waynel Mayes made news after she sang with her first-grade students to drown out the storm as it pummeled the school. “I told them to sing as loud as they could and if they got scared, they could scream,” she said in an interview with CNN. “She was singing ‘Jesus Loves Me,’ and she was playing instruments with them to keep them entertained – and that really hit me,” said the young man in orange. Barry Chalifoux, 18, told me he sold off many of his electronics – a DVR, satellite dish and cell phone – to come to Oklahoma to meet that teacher, who he’d seen on CNN. He traveled here from Slave Lake, Alberta, a place that was hit by a major May 2011 wildfire, which Chalifoux said he lived through. “I just want to say I thank her for keeping those kids occupied that way,” he said, earnestly. “I know if that was me, I would appreciate it all my life.” He also felt compelled to volunteer to help people in Moore.

I strongly encourage you to go to CNN’s webpage and read the entire piece.  It’s not only moving, but also includes pictures and tweets that Sutter took/posted along the way, embedded within the story.  A very good example of taking advantage of the digital medium: http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2013/05/us/sutter-walk-oklahoma/

“Analyzing 2 Million Disaster Tweets from Oklahoma Tornado“

The use of social media during and following a disaster is an emerging topic across the preparedness/response community.  In this post, Patrick Meier describes the analysis of the millions of tweets associated with the Moore tornado.

Thanks to the excellent work carried out by my colleagues Hemant Purohit andProfessor Amit Sheth, we were able to collect 2.7 million tweets posted in the aftermath of the Category 4 Tornado that devastated Moore, Oklahoma. Hemant, who recently spent half-a-year with us at QCRI, kindly took the lead on carrying out some preliminary analysis of the disaster data. He sampled 2.1 million tweets posted during the first 48 hours for the analysis below.

His conclusions are interesting:

The first point to keep in mind is that social media complements rather than replaces traditional information sources. All of us working in this space fully recognize that we are looking for the equivalent of needles in a haystack. But these “needles” may contain real-time, life-saving information. Second, a significant number of disaster tweets are retweets. This is not a negative, Twitter is particularly useful for rapid information dissemination during crises. Third, while there were “only” 152 unique tweets offering help, this still represents over 130 Twitter users who were actively seeking ways to help pro bono within 48 hours of the disaster. Plus, they are automatically identifiable and directly contactable. So these volunteers could also be recruited as digital humanitarian volunteers forMicroMappers, for example. Fourth, the number of Twitter users continues to skyrocket. In 2011, Twitter had 100 million monthly active users. This figure doubled in 2012. Fifth, as I’ve explained here, if disaster responders want to increase the number of relevant disaster tweets, they need to create demandfor them. Enlightened leadership and policy is necessary. This brings me to point six: we were “only” able to collect ~2 million tweets but suspect that as many as 10 million were posted during the first 48 hours. So humanitarian organizations along with their partners need access to the Twitter Firehose. Hence my lobbying for Big Data Philanthropy.

“Don’t Be a Dead Hero“ 

This piece was of particular interest to me.  In the past, I’ve (and so many more individuals and organizations much more important and influential) advocated for the positive impacts of citizen or bystander care in the immediate aftermath of a disaster.  However, in the back of my mind I’ve always wondered if the potential risks could outweigh the positive impacts.  Fortunately, Bryce Hall of Slate is here to help:

OSHA defines confined spaces as those with limited or restricted entrances or exits, places that are not designed for continuous occupancy. They include, for instance, underground vaults, tanks, storage bins, manholes, pits, silos, and pipelines.

But untrained rescuer fatalities aren’t limited to confined spaces. Chances are you’ve read other stories about compound tragedies, most likely involving floods, riptides, traffic accidents, electricity, or mines. Here are just a few.

“The Problem with One-Night Stands in Locked-Down Boston“

There’s not much I can add to the author’s description:

The whole city was locked down. Taxis were suspended. Public transit shuttered. Cops were going house to house. Armored vehicles were roaming the streets. No one could go out. You weren’t even supposed to open the door unless it was for a cop.

At that point, I really had no option but to just pull up my socks (literally and figuratively) and deal with the moment. One of the great joys (or at least essential requirements) of the boozy one-night-stand is the ability to throw on whatever clothes of yours found strewn across an alien bedroom, and saunter out the door on your own volition. Without it, you face the very real and comically awkward situation of hanging around, reeking of stout and sex, until the city resumes its regularly scheduled programming.

Then time elapsed and cabin fever began to take hold. We slipped out the door, contravening the governor’s orders, and hustled down the deserted Boston streets, hoping not to get shot by a SWAT team, to go to Dunkin Donuts (if Dunkies closes, the terrorists win) and get some smokes.

You get the idea…the terrorists didn’t win.

1. Why was the Report written?

• The answer is f – All of the above: Required by PPD 8 (page 1); To provide a national perspective on preparedness trends; To inform program priorities; To help allocate resources; To communicate concerns to stakeholders (page 59).

2. How many core capabilities are identified in the National Preparedness Goal?

• The answer is b – 31 (page 2).

And — for your skimming pleasure — here they are: 1) Planning, 2) Public Information and Warning, 3) Operational Coordination, 4) Forensics and Attribution, 5) Intelligence and Information Sharing, 6) Interdiction and Disruption, 7) Screening, Search, and Detection, 8) Access Control and Identity Verification, 9) Cybersecurity, 10) Physical Protective Measures, 11) Risk Management for Protection Programs and Activities, 12) Supply Chain Integrity and Security, 13) Community Resilience,  14) Long-term Vulnerability Reduction, 15) Risk and Disaster Resilience Assessment, 16) Threats and Hazard Identification, 17) Critical Transportation, 18) Environmental Response/Health and Safety, 19) Fatality Management Services, 20) Infrastructure Systems, 21) Mass Care Services, 22) Mass Search and Rescue Operations, 23) On-scene Security and Protection, 24) Operational Communications, 25) Public and Private Services and Resources, 26) Public Health and Medical Services, 27) Situational Assessment, 28) Economic Recovery, 29) Health and Social Services, 30) Housing, 31) Natural and Cultural Resources. 

3. Number of times the National Preparedness Goal is described specifically in the Report:

• Answer is d – Zero.

The National Preparedness Goal is referred to in the 2013 Preparedness Report, but unless I missed it, the Goal is not described specifically in the Report.

I’m not even sure the Goal is clearly defined in the September 2011 document that introduced the Goal to the nation (available here). The closest I can get to identifying the Goal is this statement on page 1 of the 2011 document:

We define success as: “A secure and resilient Nation with the capabilities required across the whole community to prevent, protect against, mitigate, respond to, and recover from the threats and hazards that pose the greatest risk.” 

I contrast that statement with the National Preparedness Goal described on page 1 of the 2005 Draft Goal:

The National Preparedness Goal is: To achieve and sustain risk-based target levels of capability to prevent, protect against, respond to, and recover from major events, and to minimize their impact on lives, property, and the economy, through systematic and prioritized efforts by Federal, State, local and tribal entities, their private and non-governmental partners, and the general public.

4. The majority of state and local respondents in a preparedness survey expect the federal government to be largely responsible for all the below, except for:

• The answer is f, Planning. (See the chart on page 10 of the 2013 Preparedness Report for details.)

The majority of state and local respondents expect the federal government to be “mostly” or “entirely” responsible for Economic recovery, Fatality management, Cybersecurity, Forensics, and Housing.

5. According to a 2012 survey of state Chief Information Security Officers, what percent were confident in their state’s ability to protect against external cyber threats?

• The answer is b, 24% (page 25)

6. According to the Preparedness Report, what is the percentage of Americans who have “physical, sensory, intellectual, or cognitive disabilities”? 

• Answer is a, 18%

Page 6 reports “Inclusive preparedness planning for the whole community requires integrating the needs of over 59 million Americans with physical, sensory, intellectual, or cognitive disabilities….”  There are approximately 316,000,000 people in the United States.

7. Which of the following is not among the 4 capabilities states rated as areas where they were the least prepared

• The answer (again) is c, Planning (page 6).

“… states and territories continue to rate recovery capabilities among their least-prepared areas. Three of the four lowest-rated capabilities— Economic Recovery, Housing, and Natural and Cultural Resources—are in the Recovery mission area, mirroring [State Preparedness Report] results from the previous year. Fewer than half of states and territories identified these three capabilities as a high priority.

8. Which of the following are “newly identified national areas for improvement”? (select all that apply)

• The answers are b and d (page 59): “Enhancing resilience of infrastructure systems,” and “Maturing the role of public private partnerships.”

9. According to the 2012 state assessment of current capability, which of the 31 capabilities received the highest average capability score?

• The answer is d, “On scene security and protection” (page 8)

10. Which of the 31 capabilities received the lowest average score in the state assessment?

• The answer is c, “Cybersecurity” (page 8)

As noted above, in questions 4 and 5, approximately three-fourths of the states are not confident in their ability to protect themselves against external cyber threats, and the majority of states expect the national government to have the primary responsibility for cybersecurity.  I wonder if the national government — whoever they are —  knows that.

11. As of 2012, agencies had to belong to the Emergency Management Assistance Compact if they wanted to receive a DHS preparedness grant

• The answer is True (page 10)

“In FY 2012, DHS preparedness grants required grantees to belong to the Emergency Management Assistance Compact and to ensure that grant-funded capabilities are deployable outside of their community to support regional and national efforts.”

12. Applicants for Hospital Preparedness Program grants and Public Health Emergency Preparedness grants have to submit four separate grant applications to four different agencies before they are eligible to receive one of the grants.

• The answer is False (page 11).

“In 2011 and 2012, the HHS ASPR and CDC led a collaborative initiative to define essential public health and healthcare preparedness capabilities and operationalize the public health and medical components of the core capabilities included in the Goal. Using these tailored capabilities, HPP and PHEP applicants were able to submit a single application for both cooperative agreements for the first time in May 2012.”

13. FEMA’s 2012 household preparedness survey found more people who believe that a natural disaster was likely to occur in their community. This awareness triggered a “substantial increase” in individual preparedness behaviors, such as building a disaster supply kit and making a household emergency plan.

• The answer is b, The first statement is true; the second one is false. (page 31)

“In FEMA’s FY 2012 national survey, nearly half of respondents reported familiarity with local hazards and about half expected to experience a natural hazard, continuing a previous upward trend. However, the survey also showed no substantial change in the percentage of respondents reporting that they had made a household emergency plan (43 percent) or built a preparedness kit (52 percent).”

14. In 2012, federal agencies had to include climate change adaption plans in their sustainability plans.

• The answer is True (page 13).

“In 2012, for the first time, Federal agencies included climate change adaptation plans in their sustainability plans for reducing greenhouse gas pollution, eliminating waste, and improving energy and water performance. These climate change plans outline initiatives to reduce the vulnerability of Federal programs, assets, and investments to the effects of climate change, including rising sea levels and extreme weather.”

15. Which of the following acronyms is not related to the public information and warning capability (select all that apply)

• The answer is d,  BARDA – Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (page 63).

Here’s what the others mean: IPAWS (Integrated Public Alert and Warning System), WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts), EAS (Emergency Alert System), FCC (Federal Communications Commission)

16. Which of the following acronyms do not appear in the 2013 Preparedness Report (you may select more than one)

• The answer is d,  LGBTQQIA – Lesbian Gay Bisexual Transgender Queer Questioning Intersex Ally

Here’s what the others mean: PHEMCE (Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures Enterprise), RRAP (Regional Resiliency Assessment Program), SLTTGCC (State, Local, Tribal, and Territorial Government Coordinating Council), EPCRA  (Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act), SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes)

17. Which country was not involved (according to the Preparedness Report) with helping the US improve “operational coordination in law enforcement, cargo screening, and passenger screening”.

• The answer is b, Mexico.

The other “operational coordination” countries are identified on pages 15 and 16 of the Report.  I wonder why Mexico was not mentioned.

18. Average time DHS said it took to conduct searches of biometric watch list data from US ports of entry and US consulates.

• The answer is d, Less than a minute (page 17).

“The Federal Government is improving the ability of authorized users to access this data quickly. For example, DHS reported that the average time to conduct searches of biometric watch-list data from U.S. ports of entry and U.S. consulates was less than one minute.”  Given last week’s data collection and mining news, this National Preparedness Report finding approaches irony.

19. According to the Preparedness Report, the approximate number of terabytes of data processed by regional computer forensics laboratories in 2011 was:

• The answer is c, 4000 terabytes (page 18)

“Computer Forensics Laboratories increased from 5,616 to 6,318; the number of terabytes processed nearly doubled from 2,334 to 4,263; and the number of digital forensics examinations rose from 6,016 to 7,629 (see Figure 7). Additionally, these resources have played key roles in recent counterterrorism investigations. For example, in 2011, the Kentucky Regional Computer Forensics Laboratory supported the investigation of two Iraqi nationals conspiring to purchase weapons and ship them to Al-Qaeda in Iraq.”  And yes, yottabyte is a real word, “a unit of information equal to 1000 zettabytes.”

20. DHS established a maturity model that identifies the four stages through which the national fusion center network will progress “as it moves toward full capability and operational integration as a unified system.” As of February 2013, the national network was at what stage of the maturity model:

• The answer is b, Stage 2 – Emerging (page 19). “As of February 2013, the national network is in the second stage of the maturity model, with ongoing efforts to build and achieve full capacity.”

I wonder who decided to create a “national fusion center network”.  The idea of a system like that — combined with last week’s data monitoring news — recalls Erik Dahl’s observation two years ago (in an article titled “Domestic Intelligence Today: More Security but Less Liberty?”): 

“…even though we as a nation decided not to establish a domestic intelligence organization, we have in recent years done just that: we have created a vast domestic intelligence establishment, one which few Americans understand and which does not receive the oversight and scrutiny it deserves. There is good news here: this domestic intelligence system appears to have been successful in increasing security within the US, as demonstrated by numerous foiled terrorist plots and the lack of another major successful attack on American soil since 9/11. But there is also bad news: these gains are coming at the cost of increasing domestic surveillance and at the risk of civil liberties.”

21. As of 2011, approximately what percentage of the 1500 requests for financial transaction data from the Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network [FinCEN] was “directly related to terrorism”?  

• The answer is b, 25% (page 21).

“FinCEN also provides a mechanism for law enforcement agencies to communicate with financial institutions during investigations through the Secure Information Sharing System. As of 2011, law enforcement agencies and other FinCEN customers issued over 1,500 total requests for information on financial transactions, with 378 of these requests directly related to terrorism.

22. The State, Local, Tribal and Territorial Government Coordinating Council studied critical infrastructure programs in 31 states.  Approximately what percentage of the programs were able to measure the effectiveness of their critical infrastructure protection activities?

• The answer is a, Zero (page 28).

“As part of its two-year reporting effort, the SLTTGCC conducted interviews with critical infrastructure protection officials in 31 states, and found different approaches in how states were implementing the NIPP’s six-step risk management process…. The SLTTGCC also found that none of the critical infrastructure protection programs it studied could measure the effectiveness of their activities. The group cited the uncertainty of future grant funding and the inherent complexities in assessing the effectiveness of risk mitigation efforts as potential reasons.”

23. Approximately how many Citizen Corps Councils are in the US?

• The answer is c, 1200 (page 32)

“Councils now serve 63 percent of the U.S. population, an increase from 58 percent in September 2011.”

24. The most common natural disaster in the US is:

• The answer is c, floods (page 32).

“Floods are the most common natural disaster in the United States and cause an average of $7.8 billion in damages and an average of 94 deaths each year.”

25. The method most frequently used by states and local jurisdictions to enforce mandatory evacuation orders is:

• The answer is d, Mandatory evacuation orders are rarely enforced (page 36).

“The authority to order mandatory evacuations lies with different levels of government across the Nation, as outlined in Figure 13 [in the Report]. Figure 14 illustrates that states levy a variety of penalties to enforce evacuation orders.15 However, few states enforce these penalties in practice.”

26. Which of the following is not a part of the DoD CBRN response enterprise?

• The answer is e, They are all a part of the DoD CBRN response enterprise (page 37).

“The DOD CBRN Response Enterprise includes the Defense CBRN Response Force (DCRF); two Command and Control CBRN Response Elements (C2CRE); 57 National Guard Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Civil Support Teams; 17 National Guard CBRNE Enhanced Response Force Packages (CERFPs); and 10 newly established Homeland Response Forces (HRFs). Together, these units provide approximately 18,000 personnel capable of supporting and conducting operations in CBRN environments.”

27. According to the Preparedness Report, most counties in the United States have established capabilities to provide response-level interoperable communications within one hour of an incident.

• The answer, according to the Report, is True (page 43).

“The National Emergency Communications Plan (NECP) establishes the Nation’s strategic approach to improve interoperability. As a result of NECP implementation, by 2011, 90 percent of more than 2,800 counties and county-level equivalents demonstrated response-level emergency communications (i.e., managing resources and making timely decisions without technical or procedural issues impeding communications) within one hour for routine events involving multiple jurisdictions and agencies.”  I thought this was one of the more surprising findings.

28. The federal highway administration estimate of the percentage of the nation’s bridges that are either structurally deficient or functionally obsolete is:

• The answer is c, 25% (page 53).

“Based on current investment trends, the ASCE [American Society of Civil Engineers] estimated a $1.1 trillion funding gap by 2020 for the Nation’s water and wastewater treatment; surface transportation [including bridges]; airports; inland waterways and marine ports; and electricity infrastructures.”

29. According to the Preparedness Report, “Interstate mutual aid plays a limited role in augmenting the capabilities of states and territories.”

• The answer (according to the Report) is True (page 59).

“States and territories continue to report the highest capability levels in those areas frequently cited as high priority. Interstate mutual aid plays a limited role in augmenting the capabilities of states and territories.”  I’m not sure I understand what this finding means. I think it mean states are not incorporating Emergency Management Assistance Compact agreements into their capability plans.

30. “Each year, the Nation makes additional advances toward realizing the National Preparedness Goal and implementing the National Preparedness System through improved guidance and new partnerships involving all levels of government; private and nonprofit sectors; faith-based organizations; communities; and individuals.”

• This assertion appears in the Conclusions section of the report (page 59). The 2013 National Preparedness Report is offered in support of that assertion.

Here’s how to score yourself:

-       Fewer than 10 correct: Read the report

-       10 to 15 correct: Read the report again

-       16 to 20 correct: You know more about the preparedness report than most people

-       21 to 25 correct: You know a whole lot about the preparedness report

-       26 to 29 correct: You know a disturbing amount of information about the preparedness report

-       30 correct: I’m guessing you wrote the preparedness report

And so, perhaps inevitably, a complicated issue of ethics and politics of the highest order will be personalized and reduced to melodrama.  Which, at least, gives me permission to tell my story.

The only claim I have on anything truly scholarly is a sort of silver-age knowledge of the constitution of late-republican Rome.  This involves the period from about 133 BC to the rise of Augustus (27 BC) when constitutional structures imploded and produced the Empire.  As a young man I read entirely too much Cicero and have carried the burden into old age.  It is a story of freedom thoughtlessly and selfishly sacrificed.

As a result the claims of a “unitary executive” by various players in the George W. Bush administration caused me considerable concern.  A life-long Republican (capital R) I had supported John McCain in 2000 and expected to do so again in 2008.  But in conversation with his national security team (in which homeland security was entirely subsumed) I became increasingly alarmed.

It was not so much what they intended to do.  It was how and why they were going to do it.   The world had, it seemed to them, become too dangerous for due process.  It depended on a few good men (mostly good, mostly men) to do what was needed to defend the nation against attack.   Further, the nation they sought to defend was an abstraction of power and interests that did not, listening carefully, seem to have much at all to do with the Constitution.

So in early 2008 I decided to work for the once-upon-a-time lecturer on constitutional law at the University of Chicago, who — it seemed to me at the time — combined a kind of tough Niebuhrian realism with a disciplined self-restraint that reflected both the Founders and a good slice of Cicero.

Like our NSA contractor/whistleblower/hero/traitor — Mr. Snowden — I suffered the consequences of my choice.  My wife has made the point that if we had given the campaign what we lost because we joined the campaign I might have at least been made ambassador to some obscure corner of the world.  More to the point, a lifetime of personal relationships and professional networks was largely sacrificed.  Even my Dad was disappointed.

Since his election President Obama has been very tough on terrorism or, as he prefers, “violent extremism”.  Several times he has exceeded what I perceive to be his appropriate constitutional role.  Especially in these cases the President has tended to argue that the controversial decision is an exception-that-proves-the-rule.  It may be little more than a fig leaf, but I have appreciated the nod to constitutional decorum even as I recall Augustus was a master of the technique.

Potentially more substantive, the President’s May 23 National Defense University speech called for a more extensive legal framework  that would explicitly limit his own authority and that of future executives.  But other than the classified PPD and other gracious acts of executive self-restraint will anything really change? Right now the speech is as likely to become a footnote — another fig leaf — in future explanations of the eventual collapse of our Constitution under conditions of perpetual war.

In this context I have found the revelations of NSA spying on you and me to be cause for considerable celebration.

Based on what can be known today it would seem that:

• The spying has been undertaken in accordance with the laws and Congressional oversight — such as it is — has been consistently facilitated.
• The spying has been undertaken only after judicial review and authorization of narrowly written warrants.
• The spying has been structured and organized specifically to limit when and how the information is used consistent with the judicial warrants and is extended only with further judicial review.
• The spying has been exposed by the unofficial fourth branch for public consideration.
• The spying has caused political enemies who sometimes seem to personally despise each other to share the same or proximate podiums to not only explain the due process exercised in this case but the mysteries of meta-data as well.

What a world!

I regret living in an age when so much of what I do is tracked — and even more is trackable — by a whole host of players.  This is an issue Cicero did not need to consider. It is a temptation to which neither Julius nor Augustus Caesar could succumb.   But this is our reality.  It is not a question of being tracked.  It is an issue of how and why… and what will be done with the results.

And in dealing with the wicked problem of terrorism and the temptation of digital tracking, what we are seeing unfold is the way our Constitution — formal and informal — is supposed to work.  We have elected agents to make judgments on our behalf.  Thanks to Madison and others we have structured our Constitution so that these agents compete with each other.  Through this competition of branches and parties and people a self-restraining, privacy- protecting, freedom-preserving process is cobbled together. Thanks to the First Amendment to our Constitution we have empowered informal agents to hold our elected agents accountable.

As a result, we are given the opportunity to consider difficult issues and to decide how our agents are behaving regarding these issues and whether or not we are prepared to allow them to continue to be our agents.  For me this is the nation.  This is what is worth defending.

In Pakistan’s tribal areas, some said they had long assumed that Internet tools like Facebook, Google and Twitter were really Western surveillance mechanisms. “We have been saying that these forums are Zionist creations to pave the way for a new world order and to keep an eye on people around the world,” said one commander, Ihsanullah Ihsan.

And from The Onion, sometime in 2011: